Oscar predictions! Who will win 2026 Academy Awards – and who should
Thanks to a suddenly more intriguing Oscar race, everything's up for grabs except best actress. Here are our predictions for the Academy Awards.
Brian TruittA little tumult is good during Oscar season. It makes awards predictions trickier. Or more fun, depending on your perspective.
Everything was falling too into place leading up to the March 15 Academy Awards (ABC and Hulu, 7 p.m. ET/4 PT). Paul Thomas Anderson's action dramedy thriller "One Battle After Another" seemed like it was pulling an "Oppenheimer" and steamrolling all the way to best picture glory. It even looked like Timothée Chalamet was a shoo-in for his first Oscar.
Then the Actor Awards (formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards) chose chaos. "Sinners" won best cast, giving "One Battle" some real competition for the Oscars' biggest prize. Michael B. Jordan snagged a surprise best actor win for "Sinners," making that race tight. And "Weapons" baddie Amy Madigan took home supporting actress, making her a favorite over a surging Teyana Taylor for "One Battle." In fact, only best actress and director seem like locks heading into Oscar night.
Of course, that doesn't stop the fearless predictions of all the major categories. Just makes it extra fun.
Best picture
Will win/should win: "Sinners"
Like 2025 winner "Anora," "One Battle" was a powerhouse with major momentum, capturing best film from the Directors Guild and Producers Guild of America until it lost best cast at the Actor Awards to "Sinners." So will Ryan Coogler's horror film go the way of "Conclave" and lose out on Oscar night? Even though "One Battle" doesn't have the mojo it once did, it likely pulls out a victory. Still, this is no guts, no glory time, so let's go with the underdog pick. "Sinners" is the better film, and it's been way too many years – 34, in fact – since a horror movie nabbed best picture ("The Silence of the Lambs").
Best actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Will win/should win: Jordan
Chalamet's best chance of winning this category was last year, for the electric "A Complete Unknown." But it did seem like his to lose this year after early wins at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes ceremonies. The occasional odd campaign moment and foot-in-mouth gaff didn't help – neither did Jordan getting top honors from his fellow thespians at the Actor Awards. At this point, the tide has turned to the "Sinners" star grabbing his first Oscar. As it should, because Jordan's dual performance as twin gangsters dealing with a bunch of vampires crashing their juke joint – and the way he creates two distinct personalities for them – is amazing work.
Best actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I'd Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Will win/should win: Buckley
At this point, Buckley not winning would be a jaw-dropping, apocalyptic-level shock. Usually one or two nominees will run the table during awards season, often supporting actors (like Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin last year). This time it's the "Hamnet" actress, who's been unstoppable. And while it's a good crop of performances here, Buckley is the head of the class by a lot, turning in a gut-wrenching performance as a wife and mother dealing with personal struggles and family tragedy. She's arguably the best actress of her generation, and an Oscar win cements it.
Best supporting actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Will win: Penn
Should win: Elordi
Ah, the one category that's a true toss-up! Elordi took Critics Choice honors, Skarsgård got the Golden Globe, and Penn has won British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) and Actor Awards (and didn't show up for either). SAG's honoree has also won Oscar every year since 2017, so history favors Penn. In a perfect world, there's a tie between beloved veteran actor Lindo and up-and-comer Elordi. If one needs to be chosen, though, it's Elordi, since his fabulous take as the iconic creature is what makes "Frankenstein" − but with the hope Lindo gets back one day to receive his well-deserved flowers.
Best supporting actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Will win/should win: Madigan
This has been a tussle between Taylor and Madigan all awards season. As the gleefully witchy Aunt Gladys, Madigan won the category at Critics Choice, Taylor came back victorious at Golden Globes, and Madigan was honored again at Actor Awards. (Mosaku beat Taylor for the BAFTA trophy, though Madigan wasn't in the category.) It'd be a nice feather in horror's cap if Mosaku or Madigan got the win. But Madigan picks up her first Oscar not only for a fabulous villain role but also for a long, acclaimed career that dates back to the 1970s.
Best director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Will win: Anderson
Should win: Coogler
Barring some unforeseen upset, Anderson will grab his first Oscar in a storied career. Directors Guild of America and Oscar are usually in lockstep with each other, so that bodes well for the "One Battle" director. He also cleaned up at Critics Choice, Golden Globes and BAFTAs, so the path is clear. However, it's downright absurd that no Black filmmaker has ever won the Oscar and in nearly a century of Academy Awards' history, only seven have been nominated. Coogler crafted something supremely special with "Sinners," and he's a true visionary who stands out from the pack, so a historic win would be apropos and welcome.