SNAP disruptions can mean confusion, concern at grocery stores

Like the millions of Americans who rely on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, retailers are bracing for the effects of reduced or delayed funding to a program that typically injects billions of dollars into the U.S. economy each month.

The federal government spent $99.8 billion on SNAP in fiscal year 2024, averaging more than $8 billion per month. The Congressional Budget Office in January estimated outlays of more than $100 billion for the program in 2025, though the actual spending this year is uncertain due to recent budget shifts and the ongoing government shutdown.

On Nov. 5, the USDA announced recipients will receive, at most, 65% of benefits in November after two federal judges ordered the department to use a contingency fund to provide the benefits. On Nov. 6, one of those federal judges ordered the Trump administration to fully fund the program for November by Nov. 7. Later on Nov. 6, Department of Justice lawyers said they intended to appeal. There isn't a national distribution date for SNAP benefits, formerly called food stamps. Recipients can look to their state governments for guidance.

It’s a confusing time for retailers. The Food Industry Association President and CEO Leslie Sarasin said retailers are awaiting guidance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, state contractors and state agencies on when November’s benefits will be distributed so they can plan inventory and staffing to support SNAP shoppers.

What does a SNAP disruption mean for grocers?

The ripple effect is immediate when SNAP payments are delayed, according to Amanda Oren, vice president of industry strategy for grocery at RELEX. Sales drop quickly, especially in areas where SNAP use is high, she said. 

In an Oct. 29 statement, the National Grocers Association urged Congress to reopen the government, saying SNAP fuels more than 389,000 American jobs and generates $1.54 in economic activity for every dollar invested in the program.

The statement warned that grocers plan staffing and inventory around benefit cycles, “so a lapse in funding could lead to reduced employee hours, perishable food losses, and declining sales.”

Even when benefits are restored, “the resulting surge in demand could strain supply chains nationwide,” the association said. 

Oren said when demand drops unexpectedly, grocers make quick calculated adjustments to protect margins and reduce waste. 

They cut back on orders of perishable food to avoid spoilage, and across the board, orders tend to become smaller and less frequent as stores manage inventory more conservatively, she said. 

“At the same time, many grocers shift their assortments toward more affordable options to match consumers’ tighter spending power,” Oren said. “To bring shoppers back in, retailers typically lean into promotions and discounts, competing to make sure customers choose their store over a rival.” 

How much do SNAP recipients receive and spend?

In fiscal year 2025, the average amount a SNAP recipient receives per month is $190.59, according to the USDA. For households in the program, the average is $356.21.  

For some participants, it’s a supplement. According to Numerator’s SNAP Shopper Scorecard, SNAP shoppers, often coming from larger households, spend an average of $832 per month on groceries, 20% more than non-SNAP shoppers. 

Where do SNAP recipients shop?

The most common place recipients spend their SNAP dollars is Walmart, which captures nearly a quarter of SNAP spending, according to Numerator’s scorecard.

But more than 250,000 retailers are authorized to accept SNAP payments across the country. In addition to large supermarket chains, they include local grocers and convenience stores. 

Margaret Hardin Mannion, director of government relations at the National Association of Convenience Stores, said SNAP represents a small portion of overall sales at convenience stores, but recipients rely on them between visits to grocery stores.

“Many people who live in rural or urban areas can’t get to distant grocery stores very often,” Mannion said. “With 93% of Americans living within 10 minutes of a convenience store, SNAP customers need the nearby locations and extended hours that convenience stores provide in order to feed their families.” 

How will a SNAP disruption affect local economies?

Linda Nageotte, president and chief operating officer of Feeding America, said retailers in her home state of Illinois stand to lose millions of dollars in sales this month due to SNAP disruptions, if full funding is not restored. 

“And if retailers are impacted, we are all impacted regardless if we individually are facing food insecurity or hunger, this impacts every single one of us,” she said. “SNAP dollars spent at grocery stores act as an economic stimulus, and experts tell us that each SNAP dollar that is spent at a grocery store returns $1.52 in economic stimulus. So, SNAP dollars are good for our economy.” 

If full funding is not restored, the loss of millions of dollars in SNAP to Oregonians in November will also harm local economies, said Oregon State Treasurer Elizabeth Steiner. 

“More than 3,500 retailers statewide participate in SNAP, generating $1.50 to $1.80 in economic activity for every dollar spent,” she said. “Grocery stores that are already on thin margins may go out of business with this loss. We (the state) cannot backfill this.” 

Eyes on rural and low-income communities

Diane Schanzenbach, an economist and nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said she’s keeping a particularly close eye on grocery stores in rural and low-income areas and whether they can stay open. 

“There are some (places), particularly in low-income rural areas, where SNAP makes up 20 or higher percent of all grocery spending,” she said. “I think we're going to see, especially if this is prolonged, some stores get into trouble, and especially in places where it's a long distance to get to a store, and they're really highly reliant on SNAP spending, I'm afraid that we're going to do some damage to the infrastructure as well.” 

Danielle Perry, vice president of policy and advocacy at the Greater Chicago Food Depository, said she’s also worried about the chance of SNAP-reliant grocery stores closing in communities of color or low-income areas.

“These stores we've been begging and crying to come into our communities may just leave," she said.

Perry said many people may think if they don't receive SNAP benefits, the disruption doesn't matter.

"But it does," she said. "We do need to think about how this impacts our entire community beyond just the SNAP recipient. The farmer that's taking the SNAP at the farmer's market, the grocer, the retailer, even the person selling their product in the store, this matters to all of us.”

This story has been updated to add new information.