Why are Halloween chocolate prices so scary? We explain.

There may be fewer chocolate bars for trick-or-treaters this Halloween as chocolate prices stay high.

The price of cocoa has more than doubled since the beginning of 2024, with peak prices hitting in late 2024, according to a report from Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. Though prices have come down slightly, they remain at or near record highs, , Wells Fargo Sector Manager David Branch told USA TODAY.

"The adults are going to be spending more to give chocolate, but I think you're also going to see a lot more gum, suckers and other hard candy," he said.

Candy is big business

Spending on Halloween candy is expected to be $3.9 billion, according to the National Retail Federation's annual consumer survey.

“Even with concerns about price increases due to tariffs, Halloween continues to resonate with consumers of all ages,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a news release.

The holiday is still popular. According to the National Confectioners Association, 94% of Americans say they will share chocolate and candy with friends and family for Halloween.

The national group representing candy said $7.4 billion was spent on Halloween chocolate and candy last year, up 2.2% from 2023.

Why is the price of chocolate so high?

The supply of cocoa, which is used to make chocolate, has been suffering because of changing weather patterns, Branch said. Particularly hard hit are regions of West Africa, which supply 70% of the global supply, he said.

Cocoa crops were hit by heavy rains in late 2023, which led to black pod disease and crop rot. The wet weather was followed by El Nino-induced droughts in 2024 and caused further disease, Branch said.

Production for the Ivory Coast – the world's largest producer of cocoa – was 25.3% less in 2023 and 2024 than the two years before, and production in Ghana was down 31.3% year over year, Branch said.

The market is elevated now, he said. As an example, the average wholesale price for cocoa through September was down 35% from January but still up almost 63% from January 2024.

There are also higher prices for transportation, fuel and labor, which increase prices, Branch said.

Some chocolate makers might substitute other ingredients, adding nuts or other fillers like cookie wafers, he said.

Prices may also rise while the quantity drops, Branch said.

"The value bag you used to buy that had so many pieces of a certain size is going to have fewer pieces of a smaller size for the same price," he said.

Shopper wants to have enough candy for kids

Sharde Smith of Dallas and her family join a Halloween bash at their church each year that brings more than 3,000 kids. She fills up a large tote with candy.

Last year, she was able to use a $40 off coupon from Instacart for her Halloween candy purchases for about $150.

This year, she started shopping early and noticed the high prices, especially for chocolate. She said she typically looks to give four or five pieces of candy to each child at the party. She estimated it would cost $1,000 to fill her tote with chocolate.

"I can't afford that," Smith, 35, told USA TODAY. "You don't want to run out of candy at a Halloween bash."

Smith said most of her candy in the tote will be suckers, gummies and hard candy, all of which were cheaper. She is also going to add some juice pouches and ice pops to her mix. She estimates she spent $350 to $450 on candy, and she shopped sales this year.

Will the price of chocolate come down?

Chocolate prices probably will remain elevated because it will take time for new cocoa crops to develop, Branch said. European and U.S. manufacturers have invested in planting new crops, but they take three to five years before they start producing beans, he said.

Branch expects high wholesale prices for at least another year before additional supply will bring prices down.

Betty Lin-Fisher is a consumer reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected] or follow her on X, Facebook or Instagram @blinfisher and @blinfisher.bsky.social on Bluesky. Sign up for our free The Daily Money newsletter, which breaks down complex consumer and financial news. Subscribe here.