Mamdani says he'll bring free child care to NYC. It's not easy, but is it possible?

Rebecca Bailin pays $32,000 a year for her five-month-old's all-day child care in New York City.

That's higher than the national average, but not unusual. Many parents in the city and in other parts of the country can relate, as Care.com's 2025 Cost of Care Report found many parents spend 22% of their household income on child care. Bailin said she couldn't find anything cheaper within walking distance of her home.

"People are spending enormous amounts and they can't make it work, but they don't have a choice," Bailin said. She's executive director of New Yorkers United for Child Care, a nonprofit that started organizing parents, grandparents and anyone else in favor of free child care in 2023. Families tell Bailin they feel embarrassed to share how much they pay for child care, "because there's this real feeling that it's your fault. That you weren't savvy enough."

Five years from now, Bailin believes New York's child care system will look a lot different. She's even helped write a roadmap to universal free child care for not just New York City, but the entire state. And now that mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is taking over, Bailin said she's hopeful their shared dream of free child care will come true.

Mamdani won over New Yorkers with the promise of a more affordable city, from free buses to lower grocery prices to a rent freeze to free child care. The idea of universal child care sparked interest among Big Apple residents and out-of-state folks alike, as child care remains the highest cost for most American families besides rent. In nearly every state, the cost of child care for two kids is more than rent, according to an analysis from Child Care Aware of America.

But not everyone is confident in Mamdani's plan, which will require big changes to New York's current child care system, an estimated $6 billion and hundreds more child care workers to meet the city's needs. Those workers are already stretched thin and paid too little, experts say. Not to mention, even among those who agree universal child care is the ultimate goal, there's disagreement over how to achieve it.

Still, with Mamdani's election, some advocates say New York City is closer than ever to making free child care a reality. It won't be easy, and it won't happen overnight. But "this is a policy that can absolutely happen," said Alyson Silkowski, a senior policy advisor for New America's New Practice Lab, a nonpartisan think tank based in Washington, D.C.

"It seems, for the first time, that the political stars are almost in alignment," Silkowski said.

Experts say free child care is possible in New York in 5 years. But who will pay for it?

If everything goes well, child care policy experts say New York could establish a free child care infrastructure across the state in about five years.

Silkowski said it will cost about $6 billion for New York City and upwards of $14 billion for the state. Experts agree that the city and state must work hand in hand to establish universal child care for all New Yorkers. It will likely include adjusting the state's tax system and placing tax hikes on corporations and the ultra-wealthy, said Marina Marcou-O’Malley of the Alliance for Quality Education. Silkowski said there's also a possibility the city or state will ask employers to contribute to child care costs.

Getting to universal free child care relies on Mamdani's ability to continue getting along with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul. And recently, Hochul pumped the brakes on another one of Mamdani's campaign promises: free buses.

Still, Hochul has stated publicly that she supports universal free child care, and she's invested significant state funds in recent years to expand child care subsidy programs, said Silkowski, who previously worked as an assistant policy director for Hochul.

"When it comes to the taxes question, which I know is a burning question on all your minds, I have to keep an eye on what is happening with Washington," Hochul said during a media briefing in Albany on Nov. 17.

Right now New York City businesses − which generate most of the state's revenues − are doing well. But it's difficult to see into the future, Hochul said.

"We can do quite a few things without any source of additional revenue based on the revenue coming in, but I don't know what Washington is going to do," Hochul said. "Are they going to try and jam us up for another $3 billion in Medicaid costs? This is the uncertainty which makes it challenging to do what we're doing."

Marcou-O’Malley believes Hochul may prove to be New York's biggest obstacle to universal free child care.

"The governor, who time and time again has said publicly that she's not willing to consider raising revenue," Marcou-O’Malley said. "And it is a bit contradictory to say that you support an agenda... and then on the other hand, you don't want to raise revenue."

There's a lot Mamdani can do on his own next year, Silkowski said, in terms of identifying money in the city's budget to add child care seats and waive co-payments on child care vouchers. But eventually the city will need to partner with the state.

"There's a lot of hand-wringing about 'how are we going to pay for this,'" Bailin said. But she argues the city can't afford not to pay for child care anymore. "We are losing a tax base because people are fleeing New York. We are losing workers because people can't work or they have to cut their hours. They can't put down roots, they can't buy homes, they can't pay off debt."

New York will have to scale up to universal child care. Advocates disagree on who gains access first.

About 174,000 children in 104,000 New York families received child care assistance in 2024, according to the state. A mix of federal, state and local dollars contribute to child care assistance programs.

To get to universal free child care, subsidy programs will have to be scaled over the next several years, meaning some families who don't have free child care now, could by this time next year, Silkowski said.

But child care advocates disagree on who should gain access first.

Bailin proposed a process that scales by age, adding more families to the program starting with preschool and working down to infants. She suggests bolstering the city's universal preschool program first, by improving access to more families and more neighborhoods.

"As we're fixing that and stabilizing that, we can age it down pretty simply to include 2-year-olds" next year, Bailin said.

Other advocates say it's better to scale by need. Yes, the current income-based system is flawed, Marcou-O’Malley said. But it addresses the needs of families with multiple children of different ages.

But economic eligibility systems are stigmatizing and difficult to navigate, Bailin said.

"It shouldn't be a complicated system of income tests to prove your worth, right?" Bailin said. "We all need this."

However the expansion happens, experts agree that in scaling the system, child care workers' pay will also need to be scaled up to account for the child care workforce shortage.

Will other cities, states follow suit on free child care?

It's safe to say other cities and states will be looking to New York in the coming years to see if and how universal free child care pans out.

"People are excited about the idea," said Shoshana Hershkowitz, campaign manager for the Empire State Campaign for Child Care. Universal child care "is really popular and has appeal across all sorts of political lines and demographics."

It's not just about affordability, she said. It's about the developmental wellbeing of kids. "Those first three years, as far as brain development, are so crucial," Hershkowitz said.

"New York City is often the starting point for trends across the country, whether it's fashion or art," said Julie Kashen, a senior fellow and director for women’s economic justice at The Century Foundation. "And I think this could be one more just like that, where New York City starts to show what's possible."

This story has been updated with new information.

Madeline Mitchell's role covering women and the caregiving economy at USA TODAY is supported by a partnership with Pivotal and Journalism Funding Partners. Funders do not provide editorial input.

Reach Madeline at [email protected] and @maddiemitch_ on X.