Will gas prices drop this year? Here's what experts are saying
Americans are feeling the sting at the gas pump amid the war in Iran, despite the United States only importing 8% of its oil from the Middle East. So why are gas prices still high?
As of Thursday, April 30, the national average price per gallon of regular gas is $4.30, with some states seeing prices as high as $6 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). A month ago, the average price was $3.99, and around this time in 2025, it was $3.18.
Gas prices are the highest they've been, not just since the start of the Iran war, but since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, according to USA TODAY's previous reporting. And gas prices are rising at a moment when peace talks between Iran and the United States seem to have stalled.
Despite teetering prices, experts say Americans should still expect to pay higher rates at the pump. Here's what to know about gas prices – and when they could start to fall.
Why are gas prices so high in the US?
Oil prices rose because the war in Iran interrupted supply in the region, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The war has also heightened danger in shipping oil and brought collateral damage to oil-industry infrastructure, among other factors.
Although the United States is considered the top oil-producing nation, according to USA TODAY's previous reporting, it's also the top oil consumer. Despite America averaging over 13 million barrels per day, domestic gasoline prices are driven higher by global market forces, with oil producers selling tankers to the highest bidder on the international market.
"So, oil literally flows to the highest price," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. "If a tanker can get a higher price in Malaysia than it can in Rotterdam, than it can in Rio de Janeiro, it’s going to go to Malaysia.”
When will gas prices fall?
James Cox, a managing partner at Harris Financial Group, predicts that the high prices will persist until the end of 2026.
“Insurance will rise on ships going through the Strait,” Zandi said. “There’s always a chance the ceasefire breaks and traders will want some premium to compensate for that risk.”
That premium “is probably going to persist for some time,” Cox added.
Gas prices have fluctuated in recent days, following news of a fragile ceasefire on April 8. Even with a ceasefire, oil and gasoline prices will remain elevated for several months, Cox said, unless some new source comes online.
Oil infrastructure in the Middle East has been damaged or disrupted during the Iran war. Some of it “will take years and years to rebuild,” said Kate Gordon, CEO of California Forward, a nonprofit that advocates for sustainability. During that time, the world’s oil supply will remain pinched.
“There’s no going back to what we had,” Zandi said. “At least not this year.”
Julia Gomez is a Trending reporter for USA TODAY and covers popular toys, space phenomena, scientific studies, natural disasters, holidays and trending news. Connect with her on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and TikTok: @juliamariegz, or email her at [email protected].