Seniors may have to wait to see what 2026 Social Security COLA is due to shutdown

Every year, older Americans wait for October to find out how much their monthly Social Security checks will increase next year.

This year, they may have to wait longer.

The Social Security Administration planned to announce COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, for 2026 on Oct. 15, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics was slated to release its September inflation report. However, all but one of the bureau’s 2,055 employees have been furloughed, amid an ongoing government shutdown. Scheduled releases of BLS' economic data, including the September consumer inflation report, “will likely be delayed if the lapse is prolonged,” according to shutdown plans.

Without September's inflation report, annual COLA can't be calculated. Annual COLA is based on average annual increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) from July through September.

"A government shut down could potentially delay an announcement of the COLA, but remember, the data is for September and that has already been collected,"  said Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. So the data shouldn't be skewed, she said.

It's important to note that while the COLA announcement may be delayed due to the shutdown, monthly Social Security payments will continue as usual. Social Security benefits have a permanent funding source and aren't affected by Congress' annual budgeting process.

Has the COLA announcement ever been delayed?

The last and only time the annual COLA was delayed was in October 2013, also during a government shutdown. The government closed on Oct. 1, 2013 for 16 days, also over funding for the Affordable Care Act.

The September CPI report was due on October 16, 2013 but delayed until October 30, when the 1.5% annual COLA increase for 2014 also was announced.

What is 2026 COLA expected to be?

The latest estimate up to the August inflation data show Social Security check rising 2.8%, up from 2.7% the prior month, Johnson said.

The overall consumer price index rose 2.9% in August, and the index for urban wage earners increased 2.8%.

A 2.8% COLA would mean just more than a $52 monthly increase in the average Social Security benefit. The average monthly benefit was $1,864.87 in August, Social Security Administration data show.

Why is COLA important?

The annual COLA announcement is one of the most awaited pieces of news for seniors because it provides them a window into how they may have to budget the next year, experts said.

Another one older Americans look for is Medicare premiums, which are expected to soar in 2026. The Medicare Part B premium is typically announced in the fall.

Earlier in 2025, the Medicare Trustees estimated that the standard monthly Part B premium would rise $21.50 to $206.50 from $185.00. “A jump of $21.50 would be very close to setting the record for the highest premium jump in terms of dollars, in program history, which was $21.60 per month set in 2022,” Johnson said.

Additionally, Part D prescription drug plan premiums could jump, which could swallow up most of the COLA increase next year. Freestanding drug plan premiums vary widely, but plans will be allowed to increase monthly premiums as much as $50 per month, up from $35 per month in 2025, according to nonprofit health care researcher KFF. Medicare trustees estimate that more than 33 million Medicare beneficiaries are currently on freestanding Part D plans in 2025. 

"I can report that the stress and anger levels of my older friends, neighbors and new acquaintances is very high and Medicare costs are a top concern," Johnson said.

Medora Lee is a money, markets and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at [email protected] and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.