Social Security faces earlier depletion date, report finds

The clock is ticking faster toward the depletion of Social Security's trust fund that helps fund benefits for about 70 million Americans.

The Congressional Budget Office said this month it expected the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund − one of the two funds used to pay Social Security benefits − would run dry in 2032, a year earlier than expected. CBO, which provides budgetary analysis to Congress, estimated last year that the trust fund would be emptied in 2033.

When the fund is depleted, Social Security recipients could see an average 28% cut to monthly retirement and survivor benefits, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said. Previously, CRFB predicted a typical couple retiring just after insolvency would face an $18,400 cut in annual benefits.

"Social Security has been on a path toward insolvency for some time – but over the past year, politicians have made its financial condition even worse," CRFB wrote in its report.

What's changing Social Security's outlook?

New legislation from President Donald Trump's signature tax and spending package last year will shrink income to the fund, CRFB said.

"By reducing income tax rates paid by seniors, the recently enacted reconciliation law – the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) – reduced revenue flowing into the Social Security trust fund from the income taxation of benefits," it said.

The bill is expected to cost the program about $168.6 billion over 10 years, Social Security Chief Actuary Karen Glenn estimated in a letter last year to Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee.

Before that, the bipartisan Social Security Fairness Act that passed in January 2025 was already squeezing Social Security, CRFB said. The law eliminated two decades-old laws − the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset − that reduced Social Security benefits for a portion of retirees who received pension income.

The law increased Social Security's shortfall by another $200 billion over 10 years, CRFB estimated.

"As a result of these laws combined with various economic, demographic, and technical revisions, and – most significantly – years of neglect from policymakers unwilling to rescue Social Security, the program’s 75-year shortfall has grown," it said.

Can government save Social Security from benefits cuts?

Congress can pass laws to protect Social Security, but it hasn't. "It is important that Congress immediately focus on this issue because delay makes the solution more difficult, as it narrows the viable options to those that rely on increasing taxes," said the American Academy of Actuaries in a post.

Options Congress should evaluate include making higher levels of income subject to payroll taxes or raising Social Security’s normal retirement age, the Academy said.

"But the most important solution is political will," CRFB said. "Politicians need to be honest with the public on the challenges the program faces and what it will take to ensure the program can pay full benefits ... Time is running out."

Medora Lee is a money, markets and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at [email protected] and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.