Bottoms leads polls in Georgia. But many voters are still undecided

Election day in Georgia's midterm primary elections is just over two weeks away, and some residents across the state have already cast their ballots.

Early voting began April 27 and will continue through May 15. The first few days set voting records for the state as more than 35,000 had submitted ballots by the end of day one.

Georgians are choosing candidates for dozens of seats, including who will run as the next governor of Georgia, replacing two-term Gov. Brian Kemp. Seven Democrats and eight Republicans are hoping to make it onto the ballot in November.

Now, new polling shows clear leaders going into election day, but also a large percentage of the population that hasn't quite made up their minds.

Bottoms leads decided Democrats, but has many to convince

In two recently published polls — one from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and another from InsiderAdvantage — former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is leading among Democrats and over Republican candidates.

Bottoms was polling at 52% support over Michael Thurmond (16%), Geoff Duncan (9%) and Jason Esteves (5%), according to InsiderAdvantage polling published May 1.

Undecided voters in the Democratic Party accounted for another 14%.

Bottoms held a smaller lead in polling published May 4 from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Bottoms polled at 39% support among primary voters compared to Thurmond's 10%, Esteves' 8% and Duncan's 7%, the data showed.

Undecided voters, however, accounted for 35% of primary voters, nearly as many as voters who have pledged support for Bottoms.

Bottoms has long led the polls, including in data published late last year. While other candidates have picked up some speed in the final months of the primary season and have performed well in televised debates, Bottoms' name recognition across the state, as well as endorsements from high-powered Democrats like former president Joe Biden, has kept her at the top of the primary list.

Why are so many Democratic voters still undecided?

Whether the number is closer to 14% or 35%, some Democratic voters haven't been able to get Bottoms' history from her stint at mayor out of their heads enough to support her as governor.

Bottoms is one of the only Atlanta mayors to serve a single term, and her final year was not devoid of controversy.

During a gubernatorial debate on April 27, opponent Jason Esteves brought up the death of 8-year-old Secoriea Turner, who was killed during protests in the summer of 2020 while Bottoms was mayor. She has also been questioned about her support of the controversial Atlanta Public Safety Training Center, her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in its early days, and her choice to not seek reelection, instead accepting a position in the Biden Administration.

Bottoms has stood by her decision to serve only four years, saying she made the best decision for herself and her family. She also has acknowledged that with hindsight, there is always more you could hope to do when a child dies, but she acted with they information she had at the time.

Her campaign has stuck to the message that Bottoms, who would be both the first Black and first female governor of Georgia, is the greatest hope for the state to go blue in the midterm.

"Our campaign is building momentum at the right time, as voters know that Keisha is the strongest candidate to defeat whatever Trump Republican emerges from the GOP primary and win the governorship for Democrats this November," Rashad Taylor, campaign manager for Bottoms said in a statement following the publication of the InsiderAdvantage polls.

Republican voters split between two MAGA hopefuls

On the Republican side of the ticket, the race is more evenly matched, but split between two candidates who both claim to be the best choice for the MAGA base.

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones has been in the race since the beginning, and has been endorsed by President Trump for the governorship. He has also notably not been endorsed by Kemp, with whom he serves under the Gold Dome. Kemp says he is focused on the U.S. Senate race and has not endorsed any candidate for governor, as of May 4.

Healthcare CEO Rick Jackson was late to the gubernatorial race, entering just a few months ago. But, he has poured millions of dollars of his own fortune into his campaign, quickly closing the gap between himself and Jones.

In the InsiderAdvantage poll, Jackson now leads Republican primary voters at 28%, with Jones trailing slightly at 24%, and all other Republican candidates down below 20%. Undecided voters account for 12% of likely voters, according to the poll.

The race between Jones and Jackson has been incredibly hostile, with both releasing a myriad of attack ads and going after one another in debates.

The jabs may help one or the other win the primary, but voters across the state have been watching the ads for the entire primary season and watched as Jones has been called a fraudster for campaign finance disputes and Jackson has been called a liar because of his non-MAGA political history and reports he hired illegal immigrants.

If the race does become Bottoms versus Jackson or Jones, the ads between Republican candidates could be doing some of the early work for her ahead of November.

Georgia gubernatorial primaries likely to head to runoffs

Both the Democratic and Republican primaries could easily go to a runoff, meaning no single candidate reached a 50% majority during the first election.

If this happens, the top two candidates for each party will be on the ballot again on June 16.

Democrats overall have been over-performing in Georgia special elections this year, including in Georgia's 14th congressional district.

The longtime MAGA stronghold race to replace former U.S. House representative Marjorie Taylor Greene went to a runoff between Trump-backed Clay Fuller and veteran Democrat Shawn Harris. Harris performed the highest of any Democrat ever in the district, and made as much as 20- or 30-point gains in parts of the district. He also outperformed both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

Fuller ultimately took home the win, but Harris will be running again for the seat in November because the position was up for reelection during this midterm cycle anyway before Greene resigned.

Irene Wright covers midterm races in Georgia as the Atlanta Connect reporter with USA Today’s Deep South Connect team. Find her on X @IreneEWright or email her at [email protected].