Homicides fell sharply in large US cities in 2025, new report says

Violent crime in major U.S. cities continued to fall in 2025 and nationwide homicides are expected to drop to the lowest level seen in more than a century, according to a new analysis.

The number of homicides in 35 large U.S. cities declined 21% from 2024 to 2025, according to a report released by the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank.

Researchers say if a similar decline is recorded in forthcoming FBI data, the homicide rate for the country as a whole in 2025 will have dropped to about 4 per 100,000 residents, which would be both the largest percentage drop in homicides in a single year and the lowest homicide rate recorded since 1900.

Violent crime has generally been falling nationwide since hitting a peak in the 1990s. Killings surged to historic levels following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and experts say there are a variety of factors that could be contributing to the subsequent decline.

"We’re seeing big swings in criminal justice policies, programs, and rhetoric, big advances in crime-fighting technologies, and big social, economic, and cultural shifts all happening at the same time," Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, said in a statement. "It’s extremely difficult to disentangle and pinpoint what’s actually driving the drop. As a result, we have a battle of sound bites and abundant claims of credit but scarce hard evidence to back them up."

Violent crime, including homicide, declines

The analysis looked at 13 offenses including carjacking, robberies and gun assaults in cities ranging in size from Cary, North Carolina, with a population of 180,000, to New York City, which has around 8.3 million residents. Most of the tracked crimes declined in 2025, though the number of drug offenses rose and sexual assaults remained unchanged.

Researchers found violent crime has fallen to or below levels recorded prior to the pandemic. Many nonviolent crimes like shoplifting also fell, and only motor vehicle thefts and nonresidential burglaries remained above the levels seen in 2019.

Homicides, which reached a peak in 2021, decreased in nearly all 35 cities in 2025, according to the study. The tracked cities with the highest homicide rates saw the largest declines since the start of the pandemic.

Washington, DC, where President Donald Trump deployed the National Guard to combat crime in August, experienced one of the biggest drops in homicide in 2025. Only three cities – Little Rock, Arkansas; Fort Worth, Texas; and Milwaukee – saw an uptick.

More work to be done

Researchers and some experts convened by the Council on Criminal Justice cautioned that although the findings are positive, there's no guarantee homicides will continue to decline.

"Violence is too complex to forecast into the future, because it is an emergent phenomenon that can build on itself," said Patrick Sharkey, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University.

The report suggests that broad social changes, like people spending more time at home, using drugs and alcohol less, and even carrying less cash might have an impact on certain crimes. Several experts also pointed to investments in community violence reduction strategies and the return to normal after the onset of the pandemic.

"The consistency of the homicide decline, both across cities and over time, makes me inclined to think this has to do with larger social movements, temporarily disrupted by COVID-19 when the world turned upside down, than with any one particular thing one particular city might be doing," said Emily Owens, a professor of criminology and economics at the University of California, Irvine.

Still, the report authors and experts stressed, more work needs to be done to determine what's driving the trend. Shani Buggs, a professor at the University of California-Davis Health, said in a statement that researchers may never have the data and contextual information needed to definitively identify what drove these declines.

"Any assertive claims about the influence of specific policy interventions, such as National Guard deployments and increased immigration enforcement or expanded community violence intervention programs, should be supported by robust research designs intended to measure their causal effects," the report said.