'Bar-fight rules'? Hurricane season forecasts prompt ominous warning

If you're among those tempted to take hurricane season a little more lightly this year because early seasonal outlooks call for fewer-than-average storms, weather and disaster experts would like a word.

They fear these attention-grabbing forecasts for hurricane season may lead to a false sense of comfort and a lack of preparation.

"It doesn't matter what the seasonal outlook says, it takes only one storm," said Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. Reinhart is among the center's specialists, urging people to pay no attention to social media pundits commenting on the seasonal outlooks who emphasize the potential dimming effect El Niño can have on would-be storms.

Hurricane outlooks for 2026 do show conditions trending toward a normal or below-normal season, thanks to a potential El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, but that's not the whole story, forecasters said. The number of storms may be unremarkable, but strong storms can still rapidly appear and intensify, as they have done in the past.

Even in years with El Niño, "you can still have very impactful Atlantic hurricanes," Michael Brennan, hurricane center director, told USA TODAY. "The risk is there every year for hurricane impacts regardless of what any seasonal forecast looks like."

Especially given the lack of landfalling hurricanes in 2025, the center's forecasters and others worry about complacency and a failure to prepare disaster kits, evacuation plans, and other key potential lifesaving steps that should be taken in advance.

Rob Young, a professor at Western Carolina University and director of the program for the study of developed shorelines, finds the whole concept of hurricane season outlooks "problematic."

The outlooks "are like the highest profile information release related to natural hazards that I can think of, yet it's information that we should not use to change in any way how we’re going to approach the tropical storm season," Young said.

"When we have a prediction that comes out that says we may see fewer than average storms in the Atlantic this year, what are people supposed to do with that information?" Young asked. In his view, "they're supposed to ignore it."

"You prepare for a Hurricane Andrew or a Katrina every year because it only takes one," he added.

El Niño and hurricane season

It's well documented that El Niño can have a marked influence on hurricane damage or activity in the Atlantic, dating as far back as studies in the late 1990s. Hurricane formation can be inhibited by strong wind shear over the Atlantic, stirred by the pattern of warmer-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

But studies show that doesn't negate the risk of a landfalling hurricane in the United States. The information about trending patterns is useful to those who manage risk based on probabilities, but is of less importance to the rest of us.

Hurricane Andrew, which formed during a transition between Pacific patterns, made two landfalls in the Bahamas and two in South Florida, reaching the state’s southeast coast at Category 5 intensity. It eventually made a fifth landfall with winds of more than 100 mph near Morgan City, Louisiana.

Andrew is blamed for 65 deaths, with damage in excess of $25 billion, including the destruction of more than 25,000 homes in southern Miami-Dade County and damage to more than 110,000 homes.

The longest-running seasonal outlook, by a team at Colorado State University, led by senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, always includes a list of years with conditions similar to those expected across the oceans during the current season. One season the early April outlook pointed to was 2023, which turned out to be a very active year, with 20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. That was the year Hurricane Idalia hit Florida, just south of the Big Bend, as a major hurricane.

For this season, the Colorado State forecast listed the probability of landfall for a major hurricane, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater along the U.S. coast at 32%.

'Bar-fight rules'

Among the factors that could influence the seasonal outcome are the speed of transition to El Niño, ocean temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic, and rain over the Sahel region of Africa. For example, studies have shown conditions in the Pacific during the previous winter can sometimes have lingering effects on the Atlantic hurricane season during times of transition between the changing patterns known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Warmer-than-average waters can help storms that do form rapidly intensify and become more dangerous, the meteorologists said. That's one reason Young and others worry about those who live along or inland from the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf – where some of the most destructive storms in history have formed – is like a wild card in any given season, according to Young and former Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate.

In a LinkedIn post on April 12, Fugate wrote: "The Gulf plays by bar-fight rules."

"Warm water. Short fuse. Bad attitude," Fugate wrote. "A storm gets in there and suddenly your nice 'below average' season is climbing the wall like a cat in a thunderstorm. That’s why from an emergency management standpoint, we don’t change a thing."

The Colorado State team addressed concerns about complacency in its outlook and in presentations.

"We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," the early April forecast states.

There is "much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged with respect to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year," the team stated. The seasonal outlooks are a way "to satisfy the curiosity of the public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem."

But then comes the additional information that hurricane specialists wish people wouldn't gloss over.

It added: "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."

Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.