Portion of SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on a collision course with the moon

• A portion of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is predicted to crash into the moon on Aug. 5, 2026.
• The prediction comes from an independent astronomer who tracked the rocket's upper stage.
• This specific rocket part has been orbiting Earth since launching a lunar lander in January 2025.
• The impact will not be visible from Earth and poses no danger, according to the astronomer.

Billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX will see a vehicle reach the moon much sooner and under much different circumstances than the company imagined.

The moon has been a major source of interest for both SpaceX and NASA, with the two entities in partnership for Musk's company to develop a lunar lander for astronauts to ride to the surface. Musk also has a vision of SpaceX leading the charge to develop a city on the moon.

But it won't be SpaceX's Starship that will be the company's first rocket to reach the moon.

Instead, a portion of a Falcon 9 rocket is on a collision course with the moon after orbiting high above Earth for more than a year. At least, that's the conclusion of an independent astronomer who used orbital tracking software to determine the approximate date, location and speed at which the piece of hardware will be traveling when it crashes into our celestial neighbor.

And in a bit of irony, the Falcon 9 in question was the same launch vehicle used in January 2025 to propel a commercial U.S. lunar lander on its own much more controlled journey to the moon's surface.

Here's everything to know about the Falcon 9 rocket and why it's due for a lunar impact.

Piece of Falcon 9 to crash into moon, astronomer predicts

Since January 2025, a portion of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket has been orbiting high above Earth, taking 26 days to complete one trip around the planet.

But on Aug. 5, the section of the launch vehicle, known as the upper stage, is projected to crash into the moon's near side, which permanently faces Earth.

The prediction comes from Bill Gray, an astronomer who writes the widely used Project Pluto software to track near-Earth objects like asteroids, comets and human-made spacecraft. Gray's analysis was based on ground observations from telescopes and surveys of the upper stage's orbit.

Because the moon has no atmosphere, this particular upper stage won't burn up before impacting the moon, which Gray forecasts is due to happen at 2:44 a.m. The object, designated 2025-010D, will be traveling at about 2.43 km a second, or 5,400 mph, when it strikes the moon, according to Gray's analysis.

What is the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket?

SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is the most active rocket in the world.

Standing 230 feet tall, the two-stage rocket is classified as a medium-lift launch vehicle capable of carrying about 50,000 pounds of cargo to orbit.

SpaceX has launched the Falcon 9 hundreds of times from both Florida's Space Coast and the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California to deliver its Starlink broadband internet satellites to low-Earth orbit. The Falcon 9 is also the only American-made rocket that propels astronauts aboard SpaceX's Dragon crew capsule to the International Space Station.

The Falcon 9's 45-foot upper stage is designed to travel in orbit after separating from the lower stage that provides the initial burst of thrust at liftoff. The lower stage of SpaceX's rocket – also known as the booster – eventually returns to Earth for a controlled landing and is recovered to be reused for future launches.

Does Elon Musk own SpaceX? What to know about rocket company

SpaceX is the commercial spaceflight company that Musk, the world's richest man, founded in 2002.

The cornerstone of Musk's business empire, SpaceX benefits from billions of dollars in government contracts to provide launch services for classified satellites and other payloads using both its Falcon 9 rocket and its more powerful Falcon Heavy.

SpaceX is also developing its massive Starship rocket at its Starbase headquarters in South Texas. Considered the world's largest rocket, Starship could be central to SpaceX and NASA's ambitions to send humans to the moon and Mars.

Musk recently merged SpaceX with his xAI company that is perhaps best known for developing its Grok AI chatbot, which began as a feature on Musk's social media platform X. The move comes as SpaceX is preparing a highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO) that is widely considered to be capable of making the company one of the most valuable in the world.

Falcon 9 launched lunar lander in 2025

The Falcon 9 upper stage on a path to crash into the moon is believed to be part of the same rocket that in January 2025 launched from Florida carrying an uncrewed lunar lander.

That lunar lander? Texas-based spaceflight company Firefly Aerospace Blue Ghost vehicle, the next iteration of which is due to return to the moon in 2026 as NASA prepares to return humans to the surface in 2028 under its Artemis campaign.

The Blue Ghost lunar lander hitched a ride Jan. 15, 2025, to Earth orbit atop the Falcon 9 rocket, which got off the ground from NASA's Kennedy Space Center near Cape Canaveral.

After becoming the second-ever commercial U.S. spacecraft to make it to the surface of the moon March 2025, Blue Ghost began surface operations as part of its $101.5 million mission to deploy 10 science instruments to test the lunar environment for NASA. The technology was put to use for a complete lunar day, equivalent to about 14 Earth days.

While the payload fairing that protected the lander before deployment reentered Earth’s atmosphere, the upper stage kept orbiting the Earth without ever reentering and burning up, Gray wrote.

Will you be able to see the lunar impact? Is it dangerous

Skywatchers are unlikely to be able to see the Falcon 9's upper stage crash into the moon, even with Earth-based telescopes. That's because, as Gray explained, the impact will be too faint for observations.

The collision "doesn't present any danger to anyone" and won't significantly alter or damage the surface of the moon, Gray wrote on his website. But he added: "It does highlight a certain carelessness about how leftover space hardware (space junk) is disposed of."

Eric Lagatta is the Space Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at [email protected]