Lake Powell hits lowest summer level ever, raising risk of 'dead pool'

Lake Powell ‒ the massive Colorado River reservoir that produces power for millions of homes across the west ‒ is the emptiest it has ever been entering the hottest part of the summer. And the worst is still to come.

Although the lake's levels have briefly fallen lower in years past, those low-water levels came in the spring, before melting snow refilled it. This year, that refill never happened.

As a result, Lake Powell will next spring fall to "minimum power pool," according to a newly released federal projection. If the water levels fall below that, the Glen Canyon Dam would stop generating electricity.

"This outcome is not a reflection of recent drought response actions, but rather a clear reminder that the Colorado River remains vulnerable," the federal Bureau of Reclamation wrote of its June 15 prediction.

If the water level falls even further, it could create environmental catastrophe by stopping the Colorado River flowing through the Grand Canyon, a point known as "dead pool." That is generally considered by experts to be an unlikely scenario because federal managers would likely create new outlets in the dam before it happens.

The amount of water in the reservoir has slowly been dropping as long-term climate change creates a warmer and drier west. Today, the lake is 23.28% full. It was last completely full in 1983.

Federal water managers have already been sucking water out of other reservoirs in Colorado and Wyoming to slow Lake Powell's decline. But their predictions also show Lake Powell's water level will nevertheless continue dropping until late next spring, when this coming winter's snow begins to melt.

A wet fall caused by a "Super El Niño" weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean could help, but water experts say it won't reverse the long-term trends.

The lake's level typically bottoms out each spring before melting snow begins refilling it through early summer. But this year's winter was catastrophically dry, and water experts say water releases from smaller upstream reservoirs will be needed to prevent the lake from dropping below the power pool level.

Lake managers have begun extending boat ramps in preparation for ongoing low levels, and workers recently floated the entire Bullfrog Marina across the lake into deeper water at Halls Crossing in Utah. The area draws an estimated 4 million recreation visitors annually to houseboat, water ski and kayak on the lake and its scenic side canyons, along with the Rainbow Bridge rock arch.

In Page, Arizona, the small city next to the dam, tourism has taken a hit due to news coverage of the lake levels, said city spokesman Adam Geller. He said it's unclear how much is directly attributable to the lake level, given recent high gas prices and a slowdown in international tourism, but city hotel revenue has dropped 6% compared to this time last year.

Municipal workers are developing a new low-level drinking water connection to supply the city's approximately 7,300 residents, hotels, businesses and the golf course as the lake level falls, Geller added.

Page was built as the staging area for the dam's construction in the 1960s, and its fortunes remain closely tied to the lake and the Colorado River, including the internationally known Antelope Canyon and Horseshoe Bend. The lake still has more than 1,000 miles of shoreline to explore, which visitors often do via houseboat, Geller said.

"This community has a great track record of adapting," Geller said. "The dam is a story of resilience in itself. It was never built to withstand a drought like this..."

City leaders hope the forecast El Niño will provide a wet fall and snowy winter, which would bump up the lake's level, buying more time to find longer-term solutions, Geller said.

"If we get that snowpack, maybe we're out of trouble for a little bit," he said.

The low water levels are also increasing tension among the seven states that collaboratively manage the Colorado River: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, along with some Native American tribes. California gets the lion's share of water from the river, even during dry years.

In an April 9 letter to their downstream counterparts, the governors of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming warned that using water from their smaller reservoirs to bolster Lake Powell risks jobs and tourism in their states. Those governors of what are known as the "Upper Basin" states have long argued that farmers in California and Arizona should use less water, even if they're legally entitled to it.

Federal water managers have begun partially draining reservoirs – including Wyoming's Flaming Gorge – to keep enough water in Lake Powell to make electricity. Water leaving Lake Powell is captured in Lake Mead outside Las Vegas, where it provides electricity, irrigation and drinking water for tens of millions of people, including California's vital agricultural industry.

"Years like this one remind us that appropriate water storage helps us survive the dry years, and that we must be prepared not only for this year but future dry years, as well as average years," the Upper Basin governors wrote. "We recognize the need to live within the available supply and expect other communities to do so as well.”

Some conservation groups are pushing for California and Arizona, in particular, to drastically alter the kinds of crops they grow, and where. Farmers pay to use Colorado River water, and because it's historically been so cheap, they have used large amounts to grow thirsty crops like alfalfa in desert areas.

Federal water managers have been trying to get the seven states to agree on a water-use reduction plan. Under the Biden administration, federal taxpayers paid farmers billions of dollars to stop planting crops, but that's considered a short-term solution too expensive to maintain indefinitely.

Over the past 25 years, the average amount of water in the Colorado River has been 20% lower than it was from 1900-2000, according to California state officials.

With supply shrinking, the states continue squabbling. And a certain amount of water must constantly flow out of Lake Powell and Lake Mead so they can produce power for millions of households and businesses. Mexico and Native American tribes also have water-use rights and a say in the management.

The states have been unable to find an acceptable compromise. That puts the whole system at risk for collapse, said Aaron Weiss, executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Western Priorities. The nonpartisan center advocates for increased land and water conservation across the West.

In addition to limiting lawn irritation and paying farmers to use less water, some proposals call for piping water from the Mississippi River into Arizona, hauling icebergs from the polar regions or building nuclear-powered desalination plants off the California coast.

Several environmental groups have also proposed removing or entirely bypassing the Glen Canyon Dam, draining what's left into Lake Mead, and implementing stricter water conservation measures.

"Now we're at the point where we've seen it coming for 20 years and so now it's going to be both really hard and really urgent," Weiss said. "Whatever the solutions are, they're going to have to happen rapidly."