Will Jared Golden or Paul LePage win Maine congressional race? New poll gives early look

• A UNH poll found that 50% of Maine Second District residents said they would vote for LePage if the election was held today and 47% said they would vote Golden.
• LePage is also more popular, with 43% saying they have a favorable view of him compared with 21% for Golden.
• Per the poll, 55% of Maine residents approve of Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills’ handling of her job, a sharp uptick from February.

An early look at the race for Maine’s Second Congressional District found that current Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine and Republican former Maine Gov. Paul LePage are statistically tied, but that LePage is more popular.

Both LePage and Golden announced their intention to run for the seat in May. The election will be in the fall of 2026. If Golden wins again, it will be the fifth time that the Democrat has won the same district that voted for President Donald Trump the past three presidential elections.

However, a poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center released June 26 found that 50% of Maine Second District residents said they would vote for LePage if the election was held today and 47% said they would vote Golden.

LePage is also more popular, with 43% saying they have a favorable view of him compared with 21% for Golden. This is largely driven by Golden’s lack of popularity with Democrats, of whom only 31% say they have a favorable opinion, 40% are neutral, and 20% have an unfavorable opinion. In comparison, 81% of Republicans say they have a favorable opinion of LePage.

This may have to do with Golden’s status as a “blue dog Democrat:” he has historically been a strong supporter of gun rights and often distances himself from the national party. In 2024, he angered Democrats for refusing to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for president and saying he would be “OK” with Trump winning.

The election is expected to be very close, as many of Golden’s past elections have been in the Second District.

The poll was based on the results of 846 online surveys completed between June 19 and 23. It has a margin of error of +/-3.4%.

What is Gov. Janet Mills’ approval rating?

Per the poll, 55% of Maine residents approve of Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills’ handling of her job, a sharp uptick from February, when less Mainers approved of Mills (48%) than disapproved (49%).

Mills gained national attention for pushing back on Trump’s executive order banning transgender athletes from school sports teams, and that action is reflected in the poll.

Of those who approve of her handling of her job, 50% say it is because of her opposition to Trump. Of those who disapprove, 37% cite her handling of LGBTQ+ issues and 35% say her handling of the budget or finances.

Should Susan Collins be re-elected?

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has said she is planning to run for a sixth term in 2026.

However, she is unpopular in the state, with 57% of Mainers saying they have an unfavorable opinion of her, including 79% of Democrats, 60% of Independents and 29% of Republicans. Just 29% of Republicans find her favorable, and just 14% do overall.

Mills has not said whether she is planning to run for Senate, but some have floated her name as a challenger to Collins. The poll found she is more popular, with 51% finding her favorable and 41% unfavorable. But the party divide is deep: 90% of Democrat said they have a favorable opinion of her while 91% of Republicans say they have an unfavorable opinion.