An Obamacare fight may shut down the government. It's happened before

WASHINGTON – Bitterly divided over the future of the Affordable Care Act, lawmakers in Congress plunged the federal government into a shutdown in 2013.

Sound familiar?

Just over a decade later, the landmark health care law known as Obamacare has once again become a sticking point in federal funding negotiations, threatening to shut off the government's lights.

Except things are much different now: Last time, Republicans were trying to gut Obamacare just as it became the law of the land.

Now, years after the ACA reshaped American health care, Democrats are pleading with the GOP to help them extend premium subsidies that will expire at the end of year. If they do nothing, insurance costs will spike for millions.

In both instances, the minority party was using the threat of a shutdown as leverage to get their way. But with less appetite for bipartisanship on Capitol Hill these days, it's not clear this time around how lawmakers may dig themselves out of a shutdown mess – and how many Americans may feel its impact in the meantime.

2013 shutdown: A recap

In 2013, Washington was not the same place it is today. Back then, Barack Obama was fresh off his reelection for a second term in the White House. Democrats controlled the Senate, and Republicans had the majority in the House of Representatives.

Ted Cruz, then a freshman Republican senator from Texas, was angry about the Affordable Care Act. He was agitating for a shutdown, insisting that the government grind to a halt if Democrats didn't work to reverse Obama's signature legislative achievement.

Though it had been almost two decades since the last shutdown during the Clinton administration, Cruz's position influenced other conservatives, careening federal agencies into a 16-day closure starting on Oct. 1, 2013. Roughly 800,000 federal workers were furloughed in the first week, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Ultimately, Republicans blinked. As the days went on, they soured on the effort and divided amongst themselves. GOP leadership overrode the less moderate factions of the party and struck a funding deal with Democrats, without any Obamacare reversals. The government fully reopened on Oct. 17, 2013.

'Pre-Obamacare days' ahead

Washington is now a town ruled by Republicans. Yet over the years, Obamacare has risen in popularity among Americans.

As part of the law, lower-income families are eligible for credits that bring down the cost of their monthly insurance premiums. In 2021, lawmakers approved a plan to expand those subsidies to more people. Obamacare enrollment more than doubled, from 11.4 million people in 2020 to just over 24 million in 2025, according to the health care policy non-profit KFF.

That expansion is set to sunset by the end of the year. Democrats – and some Republicans – are wincing at the idea that millions of people soon may not be able to afford health insurance.

“We’re going to see massive amounts of people who are uninsured," said Lelaine Bigelow, executive director of the Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality. “Health care is really going to be in pre-Obamacare days."

Lester Johnson, a restaurant owner in Richmond, Virginia, said his monthly health care premium will double next year if the Obamacare tax credit he qualifies for expires. With the subsidy, he pays $700. Without it, his bill will be closer to $1,400.

"I don't know how I manage that," he told USA TODAY. But with an 8-year-old daughter with asthma, he and his wife "can't take the chance of not having insurance."

Democrats dig in

Like Republicans in 2013, Democrats are digging in – just for opposite reasons.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said his party won't vote for any government funding measures that don't address what he calls a looming health care crisis. Specifically, he and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries want to see progress on Obamacare and a reversal of recent Medicaid cuts.

"Access to high-quality, affordable health care is a right, and Democrats are on the floor of the House of Representatives vindicating that right at all times," Jeffries said in a Sept. 19 speech from the Capitol.

Even some Republicans acknowledge that the impending Obamacare changes could hurt them. After voting against a short-term funding measure from her own party, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said it's a priority for her.

"I would like to have an effort to address, at least for the short term, the premium tax credits," she said as she left the Senate floor on Sept. 19. "I am going to make clear what my message is."

Yet President Donald Trump doesn't seem to be receptive to those concerns. He canceled a scheduled meeting with Schumer and Jeffries to negotiate over the budget impasse, saying there was no way a sit-down "could possibly be productive."

"To the Leaders of the Democrat Party, the ball is in your court," the president wrote in a Sept. 23 social media post. "I look forward to meeting with you when you become realistic about the things that our Country stands for."

Contributing: Sarah D. Wire, USA TODAY

Zachary Schermele is a congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach him by email at [email protected]. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.

(Clarification: This story has been updated to note that the non-profit health policy organization is now known as KFF. An earlier version of this story used the wrong name.)