Capturing Maduro unlikely to boost Trump, GOP midterm performance

• Polling shows Americans are evenly split on the military action, largely along partisan lines.
• The move has been praised by Republican hawks but criticized by some "America First" conservatives and Democrats.
• While the public is divided on the strike, a clear majority of Americans are concerned about further U.S. involvement in Venezuela.

President Donald Trump's strike on Venezuela has evenly split the country: Republican hawks are cheering the Jan. 3 raid that dragged President Nicolás Maduro to New York to face criminal drug charges, while Democrats question whether constitutional rules and international laws were broken.

"We saw a president that had a backbone that stood up and did something that other presidents in the past wouldn't even dream of doing," Sen. Markwayne Mullin, of Oklahoma, said in a Jan. 5 video posted celebrating Maduro's apprehension. "We showed the might and the ability of the United States to go into your backyard and pluck you out of your house when you threaten us."

White House officials also tell USA TODAY that critics of Maduro's capture sounded similar alarms when Trump bombed Iran's nuclear facilities last June, which they contend paved the way for the Israel-Hamas peace agreement in October.

Many Venezuelan Americans, administration officials also point out, have swarmed the streets celebrating the toppling of Maduro, whose elections in 2018 and 2024 have been described as a "sham" by U.S. officials.

The Venezuela action comes at a perilous political time for the president, however, given that his approval numbers have sunk to the mid-30s ahead of the critical midterm elections this year.

Early surveys show a response divided largely along party lines but also a similar fracture in Trump's base. As with the U.S. strikes against Iran last summer, some "America First" conservatives are joining Democrats in speaking out publicly against Trump's use of force without congressional authorization.

Experts and analysts say the display of American military prowess could give Trump a momentary boost, as some presidents have seen in the past.

But they warn that the Maduro raid may also further expose Trump's vulnerable leadership, especially with anti-war voters on both sides of the political spectrum.

Americans split on Venezuelan president's capture, polling shows

The White House's decision to attack Venezuela comes after years of Trump and close allies pledging on the campaign trail − and also while in office − that he would avoid international entanglements, and instead put "America First."

"We are restoring the fundamental principles that the job of the American soldier is not to rebuild foreign nations, but defend -- and defend strongly -- our nation from foreign enemies," Trump said in June 2020, while giving remarks at the West Point graduation ceremony.

"We are ending the era of endless wars... It is not the duty of U.S. troops to solve ancient conflicts in faraway lands that many people have never even heard of," he added. "We are not the policemen of the world."

That reversal has annoyed the more isolationist figures in the "Make America Great Again" movement, such as former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, who feel deceived.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly cast these misgivings as an overreaction.

"Rather than repeating the mistakes of past administrations, the president is reasserting and enforcing the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, control migration and stop drug trafficking," Kelly told USA TODAY in a statement.

"The president is never deterred by panicans," she said, using a term coined by Trump that combined the words "panic" and "Americans." "He has successfully renewed American strength to bring deliverables home to our country.”

Democrats and other international law experts also decry the move, with some questioning what comes next and others calling attention to breaking global rules that could thrust the United States into occupying a foreign country.

As Maduro entered a not guilty plea in federal court on Jan. 5, the first measurements of the American public's reactions show an even split on removing the foreign leader, with a majority concerned about what comes next.

A two-day Reuters/Ipsos survey released during Maduro's arraignment showed about 33% of Americans approve of the military strike on Venezuela and the same exact percentage disapprove, with 34% unsure. The poll found 65% of Republicans support the military action compared to 11% of Democrats and 23% of independents.

Similar outcomes were found in other surveys, such as a Jan. 3 poll conducted by YouGov that showed 36% of U.S. adults support using military force to overthrow Maduro versus 39% who oppose the action. A Washington Post survey on Jan. 5 also showed 40% approve and 42% disapprove of sending armed forces into Venezuela to apprehend its president.

Trump's overall approval ratings in the two polls − 42% from Reuters/Ipsos and 39% in YouGov − are roughly in line with recent polling from before the military incursion.

White House leans into 'FAFO' bravado as Rubio takes spotlight

The Trump administration is openly swaggering about the operation that left at least 56 dead in Venezuela, according to reports, with no American casualties.

"This is OUR Hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened," a Jan. 5 post on X by the State Department said.

The White House's Instagram page has strutted, too, showing the president walking out of his secured limousine in a Jan. 5 post on the White House's Instagram page with the acronym "FAFO" -- which stands for "f--- around and find out" -- a favorite quip by administration officials.

Another post on the social media app features archive footage of Maduro daring the U.S. to capture him before playing the hip-hop song "Hypnotize" by the Notorious B.I.G. with a caption saying, "If you don’t know, now you know," which also borrows from the late rapper's lyrics.

Trump leaned into that sort of bravado messaging during the 2024 campaign and polling shows it might be resonating with a significant portion of the GOP, particularly foreign policy hawks.

Asked if the U.S. should follow a policy of "dominating affairs in the Western Hemisphere," about 43% of Republican voters in the YouGov poll approved of that statement. And after the Venezuelan strikes, the number of Republican respondents who said U.S. military interventions improve situations in the countries where they occur more than doubled compared to a month prior, the survey found.

Republican strategist Liz Mair said it's too early to tell if capturing Maduro will turn into a political benefit for the president ahead of the midterms, but that it does spotlight a tug-of-war between MAGA isolationists and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's emerging influence in the administration.

Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has long advocated shifting U.S. policy on Venezuela away from diplomatic negotiations to using military might.

"Everything about this bears the hallmarks of the Marco Rubio stealth presidency," said Mair, a former advisor to Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.

Heavy skepticism over what Trump should do next, surveys indicate

The Reuters/Ipsos survey found 72% of Americans are concerned about the U.S. getting too involved in Venezuela, including 90% of Democrats and 74% of voters who identify as "other" in the poll. Even among the GOP faithful, 54% said they worry about further U.S. involvement.

In the aftermath of taking Maduro into custody, the president has affirmed the U.S. is "in charge" of Venezuela and that the foreign nation will be "turning over" between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil as well.

"This oil will be sold at its market price, and that money will be controlled by me, as president of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!" Trump said in a Jan. 6 post on Truth Social.

Rubio mostly dodged questions on the Jan. 4 episode of NBC’s "Meet the Press" when pressed on who, precisely, is running Venezuela. The country's Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who has assumed control, denounced the U.S. operation as a "kidnapping," but Rubio suggested the South American country's leadership would be more compliant in the wake of Maduro's ouster.

"We expect to see more compliance and cooperation than we were previously receiving," Rubio said during the Jan. 4 interview. "With Nicolas Maduro, you could not make a deal or an arrangement."

Voters care less about foreign policy, more about economy

Experts say it is difficult to tell if the Venezuela action will help or further hurt Trump's popularity, but that historically, what happens overseas doesn't have much effect on domestic political outcomes.

Some polling conducted in the past year has indicated a majority of voters are growing concerned about Trump's use of executive authority, such as sending National Guard members into U.S. cities, but foreign affairs rarely crack the top of the list.

"Foreign policy tends to affect public opinion about presidents only in the case of big events — war, invasion, major breakthroughs," David Greenberg, a historian of American political and cultural history at Rutgers University, told USA TODAY.

"Despite some Democrats' rhetoric, we are not going to war," he added. "Overall, apart from the Venezuelan community, most people don’t regard this as a top-priority issue."

Whatever boost or damage Trump suffers politically, experts say the issue is likely to wear off among voters in a matter of weeks, as domestic concerns take precedence in the fall congressional elections.

In December, Trump trekked to rural Pennsylvania for a rally that sought to reset the narrative on his economic record. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released almost two weeks after the event showed 57% of Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy, and more respondents think Democrats would do a better job.

But some progressives who are skeptical of military intervention abroad contend Democrats shouldn't give up ground on foreign affairs and should emphasize that Trump's actions in countries including Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria, are at odds with his campaign rhetoric.

Though the Jan. 3 attack was an "impressive tactical feat," the president's opponents must heed that a majority of Americans oppose any escalation, said Matt Duss, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, a Washington, DC-based foreign policy research and advocacy think tank.

"Trump made a promise to be the peacemaking president," said Duss, who is a former policy advisor to Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT. "He has now launched military actions in seven countries at least that we know about: How is this making my life better? That's the question Americans are going to ask."