Trump has largely fallen short on economic promises, stats show

• Despite the president's claims of defeating inflation, the current rate is nearly unchanged from when he took office.
• While gas prices have seen a noticeable drop, household utility costs and grocery prices have continued to rise.
• Rather than driving prices down, Trump's policies are keeping them higher than they would otherwise be, some economists say.

Taming the U.S. economy is easier said than done, President Donald Trump is learning.

A year since his administration returned to the White House, almost every hardship that he broadly promised to fix during the presidential contest two years ago − halving energy costs, making housing affordable or ending inflation − either remains a problem or has gotten worse, economic indicators show.

That hasn't stopped the president from lashing out at critics or declaring prosperity has returned when confronted with how his pledges have fallen short, as Democrats strike the same nerves he did among dissatisfied voters, this time ahead of the 2026 midterm election.

"Growth is exploding, productivity is soaring, investment is booming, incomes are rising," Trump said Jan. 13 while speaking to the Detroit Economic Club. "Inflation is defeated."

In fact, the current rate of inflation, 2.7%, is virtually unchanged from the 2.8% rate of Trump's first full month in office.

About 53% of U.S. adults said the national economy has become somewhat or much worse off since Trump became president again, an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey released two days after that speech found.

Trump's record on affordability falls short on previous promises

As a candidate, Trump made several bold guarantees about how he would quickly reduce the cost of living.

"Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down and we will make America affordable again," he said during an August 2024 rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.

While no-one expected him to actually stop inflation as he promised − some amount of price increases are necessary in a growing economy − neither has it fallen as far as many would like.

The consumer price index was 2.7% higher than a year ago in December. Inflation is much lower than the post-pandemic highs of nearly 9%, but still running at a stronger clip than the 2% that the Federal Reserve would like to see.

Importantly, rather than driving prices down, Trump's policies are keeping them higher than they would otherwise be, some economists say. The inflation rate was dropping when Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2025. It continued its downward trajectory to 2.3% in April 2025, but has since climbed back up.

Retailers have also swallowed a good chunk of the higher costs from several tariffs imposed by the White House last year on foreign foes and allies, but some are still being passed on to consumers. A recent academic paper demonstrated that new tariffs have increased the current rate of inflation by 0.7 percentage points.

In January 2024 the average tariff rate was about 3%. That rate now hovers at around 15%, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, a non-partisan policy research center that examines U.S. federal economic policies.

The AP-NORC survey released Jan. 15 shows roughly 58% of Americans said they think imposing new tariffs as "gone too far."

A day before the 2024 presidential election, Trump declared at a rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, that a vote for him, "means your groceries will be cheaper." That hasn't come to pass: Over the last 12 months, the price index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose 3.9%.

The White House did not respond to USA TODAY's request for comment, but conservative allies say the president should continue to tout his blitzing strategies aimed at helping alleviate costs.

On Trump's first day back in office he signed a series of executive orders, including one declaring a national energy emergency. The U.S. Energy Department argues that by repealing regulations Trump has lowered prices at the gas pump.

"In terms of actual policy, Trump has been throwing the kitchen sink in terms of executive orders," Peter St. Onge, a senior economist at the Heritage Foundation, said in an interview.

He points out that Congress − even with both chambers controlled by the GOP − has quietly resisted some of the administration's demands for larger cuts to federal regulations and spending.

"The trick is that the vast majority of heavy lifting on the economy has to be done by Congress," St. Onge, a contributor to the conservative agenda known as Project 2025. "He's trying with the executive orders. There's only so much you can do."

But Democrats say that Trump's actions have been more likely to raise prices than to reduce them.

"We had pockets of extremely active policy making, perhaps some of the most active policy making we've ever seen in the first year, but most of those policies went in directions that economists would find problematic, such as an unprecedented increase in the average rate of tariffs which are ultimately paid by consumers," said Ben Harris, director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution and former chief economic adviser to then-Vice President Joe Biden.

Trump promised to halve energy costs, but they rose

Trump's most ambitious commitment may have been his pledge to cut energy bills in half.

"We will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months,” Trump said at an August 2024 rally.

Household utility costs surged 41% between 2020 and 2025, according to a September analysis by J.D. Power, based on prices for electricity, residential gas and water in the second quarter of each year. While much of that increase happened before Trump took office, those costs rose 5% since January 2025, the report said.

The price per kilowatt hour of electricity went from 17.9 cents in January 2025 to 18.9 cents in December 2025, according to the St. Louis Fed.

Consumers did see a noticeable drop in gas prices, which as of Jan. 15 sat at around $2.84 a gallon nationally, down from $3.09 a year ago, according to AAA. That is still well above the "below $2 a gallon," gasoline prices Trump vowed to deliver in a September 2024 speech to the Economic Club of New York.

The Trump administration is trying to increase oil supply through leasing more federal land and water for drilling and taking control of Venezuela's oil industry, but those measures would take years to yield production and just 1% of U.S. electricity comes from oil.

Is Trump helping people achieve the American Dream?

Surveys show homeownership remains a critical milestone for most Americans, but it is becoming out of reach for many as housing remains scarce and pricey for buyers.

In a September 2024 speech Trump said "reducing mortgage rates" would help more young people buy homes. "We’re going to get them back down to, we think 3%, maybe even lower than that," he added.

Bankrate, which tallies mortgage rates daily, reported on Jan. 16 that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.11%. That's lower than the 7.04% it was when Trump took office, but still higher than he - and many homebuyers - would like. Many of the same factors are keeping inflation and interest rates higher than he predicted, including the expectation of more government borrowing, as well as uncertainty about everything from tariffs to Federal Reserve nominations.

The median cost of a previously-owned home sold in December was $405,400, up only 0.4% from the prior year.

Still, prices have risen so much over the past few years that many young people are locked out. The share of first-time buyers in the market just hit an all-time low of 21%, the National Association of Realtors said in November, and their average age rose to 40, an all-time high.

“We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs with a goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half,” Trump said in the same speech.

The National Association of Home Builders, a lobby group, says regulations can add roughly $94,000 to the cost of a new home.

NAHB CEO Jim Tobin told USA TODAY that Trump has taken some key steps toward streamlining the regulatory burden, such as scaling back the Clean Water Act.

But the most onerous regulations come from localities, limiting the White House's influence, Tobin said.

Census data through October shows the cost of building a typical single-family home is only 3.1% higher than it was in October 2024, according to NAHB.

Trump recently called for potentially barring Wall Street investors from buying single-family homes, but his administration has rolled back regulations that favored occupant-buyers over institutional investors.

GOP message: 'Best is yet to come'

One area where Trump's allies see a glimmer of hope in changing voter's attitudes before the fall contests are the expected gains from making the 2017 tax cuts from Trump’s first term permanent, which include raising the maximum child tax credit from $200 to $2,200 and creating partial income tax exemptions for tipped employees, such as bartenders, wait staff and food servers.

Democrats regularly slam the proposal for disproportionately benefiting the rich while cutting programs meant for the poor, such as Medicaid.

More than two-thirds of the total cuts go to households making $217,000 or more and one-quarter of tax breaks to those with incomes of $1.1 million and up, according to an analysis by the Tax Policy Center. Due to the social spending cuts, Americans making less than $50,000 will lose an average of $700.

The president predicted in December during a prime-time White House speech that 2026 will be the "largest tax refund season of all time," and experts have said this year filers could see significantly larger refunds.

That would be good news for GOP incumbents and other candidates on the ballot this year, who are bracing for a possible Democratic wave.

Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP's political arm, said Democrats spent years "telling families to live with," a broken economy, but that conservative lawmakers in partnership with Trump delivered tax relief and better economic stewardship.

"This is what happens when Republican leadership replaces Democrat mismanagement," he said. "The contrast couldn’t be clearer, and the best is yet to come."

But Trump's new tax law will drive up borrowing costs by widening the budget deficit, experts point out. That’s because the more the federal government has to borrow, the higher the interest rate bond buyers are likely to demand.

By 2054, the Budget Lab at Yale estimates, the 10-year Treasury yield will be 1.4 percentage points higher than it would have been had the bill not passed, which will raise interest rates on loans for everything from homes to cars.