Trump disapproval jumps, Newsom and Vance take early 2028 lead in poll

• A new Emerson College poll shows President Trump's disapproval rating has risen to 55%.
• The poll indicates a significant drop in approval among Hispanic voters for the president.
• Cost of living, healthcare costs, and inflation are the top issues for voters ahead of the 2026 midterms.
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance are early frontrunners for their respective 2028 presidential primaries.

President Donald Trump's approval rating continues to tank, according to a new Emerson College poll released on Feb. 25.

More than half, or 55%, of Americans surveyed do not approve of the job the president is doing, a four percentage point increase from January, according to the Emerson poll of 1,000 likely voters. The poll was conducted Feb. 21 through Feb. 22, just days before Trump's record-length State of the Union address on Feb. 24. 

Meanwhile, 43% of Americans support Trump, the Emerson poll found, the same percentage recorded in the college's January poll. During the State of the Union, Trump boasted that he had inherited "a nation in crisis." He praised his own economic record, taking credit for reducing the prices of Americans' daily essentials, including gas and eggs.

"This is the golden age of America," Trump said. "We have achieved a transformation like no one has ever seen before. It is a turnaround for the ages."

The Emerson poll comes less than a week before voters cast ballots in primaries in Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina on March 3. In a generic congressional ballot, the Emerson poll showed that a Democratic Party candidate would beat a Republican candidate by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%. That figure is two percentage points higher than in Emerson's January poll.

Emerson's survey this month is also consistent with a string of other polls showing Trump's approval rating plummeting, including recent ones conducted by the Washington Post-ABC News, The New York Times and the Pew Research Center.

Those polls show Trump's approval ratings somewhere between 37% and 43%.

And a new Reuters/Ipsos poll Feb. 24 said 6 in 10 Americans, including a significant portion of Republicans, think the 79-year-old Trump has become erratic as he ages.

Overall, 61% of poll respondents said they would describe Trump as having "become erratic with age," according to the six-day poll that concluded on Feb. 23. Meanwhile, about 89% of Democrats, 30% of Republicans, and 64% of independents also described the president this way.

Trump support plummets among Hispanics

The Emerson poll also shows that more than half of Hispanics surveyed disapprove of the job the president is doing. Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said 58% of Hispanics polled disapprove of Trump and 37% approve of the president.

That's a significant shift from last month, when Emerson reported a near-split approval rating, with 43% approving and 45% disapproving. Trump's disapproval soared 13% among Hispanics from January to February.

"These numbers reflect the broader downward trend previously observed among Hispanic voters," Kimball said in a release.

Newsom leads as top Dem presidential contender, Emerson poll says

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the early frontrunner to win the 2028 Democratic presidential primary with 20%, the Emerson poll noted.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg follows at 16%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris was in third place at 13%. U.S. Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York had 9%, followed by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7% and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 5%.

About 24% percent are undecided, the poll shows, as candidates are starting to carve out their 2028 bases, Kimball noted.

He said Ocasio-Cortez has the most support among voters under 30 at 20%, and Buttigieg leads among women, also at 20%, along with postgraduates at 21%.

Newsom leads among voters 50 and older (23%), and Black voters are backing Harris (36%), Kimball added.

VP Vance tops as early GOP presidential contender

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads among potential 2028 GOP presidential primary candidates with 52%, the Emerson poll said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio comes in second at 20%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was third at 6%, followed by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 4%; former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 3%; and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 1%.

Around 11% percent are undecided, the poll said.

"Republican voters are strongly behind Vance," Kimball said.

Independent voters who plan to vote in the 2028 Republican primaries also favor Vance, though by a narrower margin of 33% to 23%, Kimball added.

Overall, Independent voters are leaning towards Democratic candidates 50% to 37%, the poll said.

Poll: Voters say cost of living top topic of 2026 midterm races

A majority of likely voters polled say the cost of living is the top topic with the 2026 midterm elections slightly more than 8 months away, the Emerson poll found.

 In the poll, voters were asked how important a series of issues were on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest. Cost of living had the highest mean importance at 8.2, the poll found, followed by healthcare costs at 7.8, inflation at 7.6, deportation policy at 7.1, healthcare access at 6.9, and border security at 6.3.

Broken down by political party, Democrats rate healthcare costs higher than average at 8.6, and border security lowest at 4.9, the poll found.

Republicans rate border security 8.3 and deportation policy 8.2 as the most important issues, the poll indicates, far higher than Democrats (4.9 and 6.9) and independent voters (5.9 and 6.5).

And Independents are more concerned about their cost of living, with a mean rating of 8.2.