Trump puts immigration front and center. How will it impact 2026 elections?

An immigration debate that has raged across America's streets and divided Congress is now reaching another critical moment on the campaign trail, and a president who has been on the back foot is trying to reassert himself.

As voting begins in the 2026 midterm primaries, both major parties are charting their path forward on the issue ahead of a showdown in November that will decide control of Congress, and whether Democrats have more power to check President Donald Trump’s agenda or a GOP majority continues to give him free rein.

Trump twice rode a hard-line immigration message to the White House, but his signature subject increasingly is a liability as polls show Americans souring on his approach.

The president had been backpedaling amid outrage over federal immigration agents who killed two people in January in Minneapolis. But Trump this week, in his State of the Union speech − one of the biggest platforms to date of his second term − sought to regain the political high ground and reinvigorate a central pillar of his presidency ahead of the next crucial election.

On Feb. 23, Trump held a White House event with families of people killed by immigrants without legal status and signed a proclamation declaring it "National Angel Families Day." The next evening, he delivered his annual address to a joint session of Congress and, with tens of millions watching at home, highlighted his immigration policies and targeted Democrats, lambasting them for not standing when he asked lawmakers to rise if they agreed the "first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens."

'Everybody should have stood up'

A clip of Trump's made-for-TV moment was quickly blasted out by the president's political operation, and it also featured in a campaign ad as Republicans argue Democrats are the ones who are out of touch.

“I could not believe that Democrats sat on their hands,” Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, told USA TODAY this week in the Capitol, adding, “Everybody should have stood up for that.”

Yet nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump's handling immigration, according to Quinnipiac and Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos surveys released this month. The president has lost significant support among independent, Latino and younger voters, according to a new CNN poll. Trump's efforts to reframe the issue comes as the midterms are heating up, with March 3 primary elections in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas, where Trump held an event Feb. 27.

Democrats say Trump is trying to change the focus because he's losing on the issue.

"He knows the overwhelming majority of Americans do not support the actions of his ICE operations," said Maryland Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen.

From 'superpower' to 'super problem'

Trump launched his first campaign for president by descending down an escalator in Trump Tower in Manhattan and declaring that immigrants from Mexico are “bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

The president’s dark depiction of immigrants in the United States illegally has been central to all three of his presidential campaigns, including the two he won in 2016 and 2024. He led chants of "build that wall" during his first campaign and ran two years ago promising the largest mass deportation effort in American history.

Immigration has been one of Trump's "superpowers" for over a decade, but lately has become "a super problem," said Republican consultant Matthew Bartlett, a first-term Trump State Department official.

Trump's deportation push has been at the heart of his second-term agenda, employing tactics including deploying the National Guard in Los Angeles, Chicago, Portland and other communities to help with crime and immigration enforcement, despite protests from local leaders, flooding cities with immigration agents and sending deportees to a notorious prison in El Salvador and countries that aren't their own. Migrants from Cuba, Laos, Mexico, Myanmar and Vietnam were sent to war-torn South Sudan.

The moves have been challenged in court and prompted mass protests that intensified after the events earlier in 2026 in Minneapolis, where Renee Good and Alex Pretti were shot to death by federal agents, sparking outrage. The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos survey found that 62% of Americans oppose the tactics being used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

"He doesn't acknowledge that what ICE is doing in Minnesota and what they did in LA is wrong," Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Arizona, said of Trump in an interview. "I mean, he thinks this is a great idea."

Focus on the border

Amid the backlash to ICE, Trump emphasized border security in the State of the Union address, which polls show is more popular.

Trump mentioned the border five times in the first three minutes of his address, declaring "we now have the strongest and most secure border in American history."

The president initially backtracked after Minneapolis, saying he wanted a "softer touch" on immigration and withdrawing federal agents. He entered into negotiations with Democrats over ICE reforms after the party resisted extending funding the Department of Homeland Security, which has lapsed, causing a partial government shutdown.

In the State of the Union, Trump lashed out at Democrats over DHS funding, saying they are targeting an agency “responsible for protecting Americans from terrorists and murderers."

Trump also raged against "Somali pirates who ransacked Minnesota," honored a girl who was injured in an accident allegedly involving an undocumented immigrant and told the story of a Texas teenager who was stabbed to death in her home by an immigrant in the country illegally. Her mother was in the gallery.

"We allowed this to happen with our open borders," Trump said.

The president often has sought to frame undocumented immigrants as a crime problem, despite evidence suggesting they don’t commit crimes at higher rates than the general population.

"It is literally the case that thousands of Americans are alive today because President Trump was reelected and a Republican House and Senate was elected," Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said in an interview.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 70% of Americans don't believe the majority of immigrants who have been deported are violent criminals.

"The American people know full well this is not about just going after the worst of the worst," Van Hollen said.

Primary battles

As both parties weigh how to proceed on immigration, the primary races and strong feelings about Trump’s immigration agenda within both the GOP and Democratic bases could factor into how the issue plays out.

Early voting is already underway in the Texas Senate primary, with Election Day arriving on March 3. The three Republican candidates − Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt − have been eager to support Trump's immigration agenda. The two Democrats − U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crocket and state Rep. Talarico − have staunchly criticized ICE.

Democrats competing for their party’s nomination in the contest to replace outgoing Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin also have taken aim at ICE, with Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton calling to “abolish ICE” and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi saying he wants to “abolish Trump’s ICE.” Voters will make their pick on March 17.

The debate recalls the “defund the police” rhetoric that coursed through Democratic politics in recent years, which was viewed as hurting the party with moderates. Yet outrage over ICE also could be problematic for Republicans in some swing states.

After DHS launched an enhanced immigration operation in Maine, Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who is seeking the party's nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Susan Collins, put out a statement warning against "sowing intimidation and fear." Collins said immigrants are important to Maine and pushed to end the operation, which was called off days later.

Trump allies argue that immigration is an issue the GOP can run on in the midterms, while many Democrats are eager to keep ICE in the spotlight. Voters tend to reject extremes on either side, and will have their say in November.

Contributing: Zachary Schermele