Janet Mills drops out. Will this help Graham Platner against Susan Collins?

• With Maine Gov. Janet Mills out of the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, oyster farmer Graham Platner now has what looks to be a clear shot to the nomination.
• Earlier polls show Platner leading against incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine.

With Maine Gov. Janet Mills out of the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, oyster farmer Graham Platner now has what looks to be a clear shot to the nomination.

And her exit on April 30 due to finances may now might help Platner in his quest to defeat incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, whose seat Democrats are hoping to take in order to flip the narrowly Republican-controlled Senate.

That's because Platner, a political newcomer who has established himself as a progressive and gained endorsements from leaders like Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., can now start focusing on the general election by trying to appeal to the wider Maine electorate, UNH Survey Center director Andy Smith said.

“He can drift to the center, shall we say, a little bit,” Smith said, adding that it’s necessary to do so in a state like Maine, which is “fairly balanced” between Democrats and Republicans. “So I think that her getting out of the race certainly makes it easier for him in November.”

But it’s still unclear whether he will be able to pull off a win against Collins, who has served five terms and proven herself resilient to challenges in the past. In 2020, when former President Joe Biden won the state by nine points, Collins defeated well-funded Democrat Sara Gideon by nearly as much. 

Collins also has the most money: according to the latest campaign finance reports filed March 31, Collins has over $13 million with $10 million cash on hand, while Platner has raised nearly $12 million with $2.7 million cash on hand.

“Her race is one of the ones that Republicans really have to win,” Smith said. “So they'll have a lot of resources they can put in into that race.”

Collins did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

Will Platner beat Collins? What polls say

A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Feb. 24 found Platner leading Collins in a hypothetical matchup 49% to 38%. He led among Democrats and Independents.

Any Democrat would have a good shot against Collins this year, Smith said. The party that doesn't have control of the White House typically performs well in midterm elections.

But he said there is especially energy in the Democratic base towards progressive candidates like Platner; just look at New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

But will Platner ultimately be able to pull it off?

“It’s too early to say,” Smith said. “So much can happen between now and then, but it’s better that this has gotten over before it got to the primary.”

What about Platner’s past? Nazi tattoo, Reddit posts

In October, Platner faced criticism for a tattoo he had of a skull and crossbones that resembled a Nazi symbol, as well as old Reddit posts in which he made controversial comments on topics including sexual assault and race.

Platner has since covered up the tattoo, saying he didn’t know what it meant when he got it as a Marine, and said he no longer agrees with the things he said on Reddit.

In a statement after Mills’ announcement, the Republican National Committee used his past in an attack.

"In November Susan Collins, a proven leader with an indisputable record of delivering for Maine, will face a Nazi sympathizing self-proclaimed communist with a record of hate-mongering and dishonesty,” said RNC Spokesperson Kristen Cianci. "It’s safe to say we are confident going into Election Day.”

It’s unclear how that line of attack will affect Platner. The UNH poll finding Platner ahead of Collins was taken after the comments came out, and it also found Platner had gained support in the Democratic primary.

Mills had also released an ad showing women criticizing Platner for decades-old Reddit comments on sexual assault. This, too, didn’t seem to move the needle much, University of Maine Farmington political science professor Jim Melcher said.