Some Cuban Americans wary amid Trump talks. 'There's no clear path'

Ninety miles from Florida shores sits Cuba, an island that's recently become a focus of President Donald Trump, and remains a continual pressure point for Cuban Americans, some of whom told USA TODAY they feel increasingly severed from the country that's only a short plane ride away.

As U.S.‑Cuba tensions escalate under Trump's administration, including fresh talk of blockades, takeovers and regime change, that distance feels larger than ever, including for Cuban American and Miami native Andrew Otazo. While Otazo, 39, grew up hearing stories of his family's time in Cuba, it remains a place he does not intimately know; those stories are laced with a melancholy sense of disconnection, complicated by the United States' continually strained relationship with the island.

That emotional distance has sharpened in recent months. As power outages worsen conditions on the ground and talks between the two governments reportedly continue, Cuban Americans say the moment feels like a turning point, one that has left many torn between cautious hope, fear and deep skepticism.

"I don't have hope for the Cuban people," Otazo told USA TODAY. "Cuba is this giant weeping sore on the body of Cuban Americans. It is a tragedy."

Tensions between US, Cuba heighten

Tension between the United States and Cuba has hit a peak in recent weeks following Trump's oil blockade earlier this year, which led to mass blackouts and an increased strain on the country's already ailing infrastructure.

On May 1, Trump imposed expanded sanctions on Cuba, targeting individuals and entities that support the country's government. The executive order pointed to those who are complicit in "government corruption or serious human rights violations."

U.S. and Cuban leadership have reportedly held multiple conversations in the wake of the blockade and floated multiple options on what to do with the island, from pursuing an economic deal to regime change to a U.S. military operation.

What to do with the island is a common pressure point for many in the Cuban community, Guillermo Grenier, a Cuban American and sociology professor at Florida International University, told USA TODAY. While some support isolating the island to force a regime shift, others wish for a U.S.-Cuba relationship to better conditions in the country, he said.

According to Grenier, what unites the community is a desire for change, but Cubans diverge on how best to achieve it.

"Right now, it seems like a change is going to come," Grenier said. "What is happening now is different, the moment is different than any other moment since the Cuban Revolution and the U.S. relations with Cuba ... you have a sense in the community here, everybody's wildly, wildly optimistic and wildly fearful at the same time."

The recent oil blockade has further exhausted the already tired Cuban people on the island, essentially forcing the government's hand and negotiations between the two countries, Grenier said. Even if the United States and Cuba were to make a deal, it would likely not satisfy the whole Cuban American community, given how divided the island is regarding how to approach relations, he said.

'There is no hero here'

Grenier's worry is political violence. While some might be pleased with a peaceful transition, such as the United States entering into economic deals with a less powerful version of the current regime, others might be dissatisfied and unrelenting until Cuba's leadership is toppled. Beyond that, the United States taking over Cuba or its economic system would also likely elicit a negative response, he said.

"I think that's going to create more conflicts in the future than need be. But I don't see how that's unavoidable, actually, if the United States comes in and begins to control Cuban's economy again," Grenier said. "Give it a few decades and we'll have another Cuban Revolution."

Like those in the Cuban American community, Grenier, who was born in Havana before coming to the United States in the 1960s, also feels the weight of uncertainty. He initially was hopeful about potential action, but those feelings of excitement have shifted.

"When I first heard that something's going to happen, I kind of got my spirits up because I know that Cubans really need something," Grenier said. "But then when you think about it and you think, 'What's going to happen afterwards?' It becomes so overwhelming, and clearly ... there is no hero here and there's no clear path."

Some Cuban Americans worried, wary amid takeover talk

The feeling of uncertainty is echoed by Austin Ibarra, 26, who told USA TODAY it "feels like some sort of inflection point or a tipping point," but he's not sure in what direction.

While he'd like to see an end to the U.S. sanctions, the removal of Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list and the ability for the island to conduct relations and business with other places, he acknowledged that those agreements would likely come with concessions that wouldn't satisfy all Cubans. Similar to Grenier, Ibarra said he doesn't see a universe where anti-regime Cubans are "willing to deal with the Communist Party in power at all."

"I think the level to which they're dug in the trenches and ... dead set on a change of government, it will only lead to a further lack of reconciliation, which I think that is fine," Ibarra said. "I don't think there is reconciliation between the people that would want to see such suffering for their specific aims, because there are different interests."

Beyond that, U.S. interaction does not necessarily ensure a better life for the Cuban people, he said.

"Cuba cannot be free if conditions of its 'freedom' are imposed on it by the strength of the U.S.," Ibarra said. "Right now, even if the siege is broken like that, breaking the siege does not necessarily mean genuine freedom for the people of Cuba, genuine self-determination."

Nikky Gonzalez, a 31-year-old Cuban American in Washington, DC, is more hopeful about a positive impact if the United States involves itself with Cuba. She said the best route of action would be a territory agreement, similar to what the United States has with Puerto Rico.

"We don't want it to be like what's happening in Venezuela right now or like what has happened in the Middle East, where we go in, we take down the government, and then we just leave everyone to their own devices," Gonzalez said. "A lot of negativity happens when you leave the space open, and anyone can take control ... Communism is bad. We know (Cuban President) Miguel Díaz-Canel, and all of that is bad. But who knows if there's something worse?"

The Cuba Gonzalez knows is the one in stories shared by her family members who left the island. While she feels the island will never be the way it once was, she hopes there will be a path back that does not compromise the Cuban people, including traveling to the island and spending money that supports the current government.

"I would love for there to be open borders for us to be able to travel over there, and for it to be looked at as the powerful island that it once was," Gonzalez said.

U.S. interest in Cuba remains murky, according to Otazo. He said he doesn't think U.S. involvement is for the benefit of the Cuban people and doubts anyone on the island will gain anything from Trump's potential action. Even if the United States and Cuban Americans do reconcile with the island, it won't be the same place as when thousands of people fled Cuba decades ago, he added.

"It is this vacuum for me personally, because the Cuba of my parents doesn't exist ... and it never will again. I'm rootless because of it," Otazo said. "I have a connection to the Cuban people through our shared ethnicity and history, but no, it's really tragic, and I don't see a way out of it. I want Cuba, the Cuban people to thrive. Donald Trump is not going to be the person to do that."

Kate Perez covers national trends and breaking news for USA TODAY. You can reach her at [email protected] or on X @katecperez_.