Democrats are losing on redistricting. Here are their last hopes.

WASHINGTON – As Republicans pull ahead in the nationwide redistricting wars, Democrats are adamant: They may be down, but they're far from out.

Clear-eyed about President Donald Trump's low poll numbers and rising gas prices, a stubborn optimism has set in over Congress' minority party – despite bruising court losses in the last two weeks.

First, the conservative-majority Supreme Court defanged the Voting Rights Act. The landmark decision immediately set the stage for state legislatures across the South to begin, even before the approaching midterm elections, to wipe out majority-Black districts that have long been key to Democrats' national success.

Then, the Virginia Supreme Court separately threw out a voting map that would've netted congressional Democrats as many as four more seats in the House of Representatives in the approaching midterm elections.

The defeats have been stinging. Democrats in Washington reacted so strongly that some even discussed a long-shot plan to prompt the Virginia legislature to throw out the state's Supreme Court by lowering the mandatory retirement age for justices, according to The New York Times.

As the political dust settled, they emerged from closed-door huddles with varying degrees of confidence about the path forward. Ultimately, many still believe that worsening fuel costs, widespread cost-of-living concerns and Trump's unpopularity will allow them to wrest full control of Capitol Hill from Republicans.

Until recently, blue victories seemed like mostly a foregone conclusion. Success at the ballot box this fall would allow Democrats to regain a political foothold in Washington, effectively stymieing the rest of Trump's second term in the White House.

While Democrats are still favored to take back the House, many resoundingly agree: It just got a lot harder.

"I'm very optimistic we can get the majority in November, but it's not going to be easy," Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Virginia, told USA TODAY. "The playing field is just as important as the people playing on it."

Tim Kaine: Virginia Democrats are out of time

In interviews with USA TODAY, three Democratic members of Virginia's congressional delegation said even with the old maps, they believe their party can flip GOP seats in the state. They also threw cold water on any last-minute Hail Mary plans, including throwing out the state's Supreme Court justices.

"My understanding is General Assembly members have already said no," Rep. Jennifer McClellan said, referring to the state's legislature.

Virginia Democrats filed an emergency petition with the U.S. Supreme Court to allow the redistricting to go forward. It's widely expected to go nowhere, leaving new maps in the state almost certainly off the table for the 2026 election.

Virginia Democrats are out of time, said Sen. Tim Kaine, a former Richmond mayor.

"We're now six months from Election Day," he told USA TODAY. "There's no time to consider all kinds of options."

After a week recently of traveling across the commonwealth, Kaine said he'd heard from many Virginians frustrated about the Trump administration's policies. That angst should be enough, he said, to overcome the gerrymandering setback.

"Let's just go win races," he said. "People are not happy with the way the president and his enablers are treating this country."

Two, or potentially three, of the seats are competitive. And the Republican most in danger of losing, Rep. Jen Kiggans, is in the middle of a campaign scandal. During a May 11 radio interview, she agreed with a racist comment made about a Black congressman, Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, by the host. She has since said she didn't condone the commentator's statements and has not apologized.

Maryland: Democrats' next target

Republicans haven't wasted time capitalizing on the U.S. Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act decision. They're moving swiftly to try to eliminate lone Democratic seats in South Carolina and Tennessee. Notwithstanding legal challenges, they could end up with roughly a dozen more Republican-leaning seats in the midterms, per some estimates.

Independent political analysts expect Democrats could still come out on top.

"This is a redistricting deficit that we favor Democrats to overcome," Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wrote in a May 14 analysis. "But it’s also enough of a Republican edge that it could allow them to save their House majority under the right circumstances."

Last year, a GOP effort to redistrict Utah backfired, yielding a gift for Democrats and creating a single safe blue seat. This February, the Supreme Court also greenlit a gerrymander of California, creating five more blue seats.

Between now and November, there might be only one other Democrat-led state, Maryland, that theoretically could redraw its districts. And even then, it would only be if "every star aligned," House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar told reporters on May 13.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is openly pushing for state lawmakers to try and eliminate the GOP's sole congressional district in the state. Yet time is of the essence, and he can't put the issue to voters in the same way Virginia's Democratic governor did.

While a one-seat edge might not sound like much, it could make a meaningful difference in a Congress currently functioning (or trying to, at least) with essentially a two-vote margin.

"That would help level the playing field, with what's happening in these Southern states," McClellan said. "At this point, we need to look at everything we can do."

A swan song in Tennessee

Among the strong proponents of a new map in Maryland is Rep. Steve Cohen, Tennessee's lone Democratic congressman whose longtime, reliably blue district is about to turn red.

After Republicans in the state voted to gerrymander parts of Memphis, dividing the only majority-Black House district, Cohen announced May 15 that he most likely wouldn't seek reelection. He said he would instead retire from Congress, ending a two-decade career on Capitol Hill.

During an emotional press conference in his Washington office, the congressman said he'd only run again if the courts restore the contours of his seat before November.

“I don’t want to quit. I’m not a quitter," he said. "But these districts were drawn to beat me.”

He told USA TODAY that Maryland Democrats should get him some payback.

“If you go high and they stay low, they win,” he said.

(This story has been updated with additional information.)

Zachary Schermele is a congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach him by email at [email protected]. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.