Amid dysfunction in Congress, some Republicans hope to ditch DC for governorships

WASHINGTON – In President Donald Trump's DC, Republicans have it all. The White House, Congress and Supreme Court are under conservative control. In theory, it's a GOP fever dream.

In practice, it's not always dreamy.

Party infighting, rising gas prices and a divisive war in Iran could spell trouble for congressional Republicans in the fast-approaching midterm elections.

As November looms, some of them are eyeing an exit from Capitol Hill altogether.

Twelve GOP lawmakers in both chambers – an unusually high number – are running for governor in their home states, according to Ballotpedia. Of the 10 members of the House of Representatives gunning for their state capitals, all are Republicans.

It's part of a larger pattern of Washington politicians setting their sights on state politics. On both sides of the aisle, many have grown increasingly disillusioned with seemingly entrenched dysfunction at the federal level.

At the same time, other recent national trends – from the new redistricting wars to court battles launched by both blue and red states in response to Trump- and Biden-era policies – have underscored just how impactful the machinations of state governments can be.

"As more and more serious policy fights happen at the state level, it’s critical we have battle-tested conservatives running for offices to hold the line back home," Rep. Andy Biggs, a Republican congressman running to be Arizona's next governor, said in a statement to USA TODAY.

Despite a series of stinging gerrymandering losses, Democrats remain favored to take back the House. Simultaneously, 36 governors' races will be on the ballot later this year.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecast from the University of Virginia, recently shifted six of those contests, including Arizona, in Democrats' favor. Some of the toss-up states include Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia.

Yet since a 1994 red wave, Republicans have mostly maintained a numerical edge in governorships. Currently, they control 26 states relative to Democrats' 24. Pollsters say that trend means the GOP could maintain a slight upper hand in state capitals heading into the fall.

"Republicans may still be better-positioned to maintain an overall advantage in governorships held, and thus defy the usual trend of gubernatorial losses for the president’s party in midterms," Sabato analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in a March 19 analysis.

Montana governor leading the GOP's way

Greg Gianforte is no stranger to Washington gridlock. The two-term Montana governor spent about four years as a congressman in the House. Now, he's the man leading the GOP's crusade to occupy more state governors' mansions.

"He's got a big job," Rep. Byron Donalds told USA TODAY of Gianforte. Donalds is favored to become the next Republican governor of Florida.

In an exclusive sit-down with USA TODAY, Gianforte, the chair of the Republican Governors Association, said it's not lost on him how tough it can be to pass laws at the federal level. A lot of policymaking still happens in Washington, though. Both Trump and former President Joe Biden have successfully pushed through major legislation, rewritten important regulations and enacted changes impacting millions of people.

When it comes to embracing those policies, or blunting their impacts, the buck stops in state capitals, Gianforte said.

"Whatever kind of crazy we have in Washington, DC, it's the state administrations that are like the last barrier to crazy," he said.

Affordability headwinds favor Democrats

In Gianforte's mind, the key to the GOP's gubernatorial strategy hinges on one word: affordability.

"Affordability is a real thing," he said. "The Democrats have tried to co-opt it. But it's a Republican issue."

He pointed to conservatives' traditional affinity for tax cuts, crackdowns on fraud costly to taxpayers and wage growth in Republican-led states.

But he left out one big problem: Trump.

The White House has forged ahead in recent days with a pre-midterm push to bring down Americans' costs, including by urging Congress to suspend the federal gas tax and pass a housing reform bill. Yet on top of spiking inflation and skyrocketing fuel costs, the president has repeatedly found ways to complicate his own message on affordability. Trump has publicly called the concept a "hoax," and the president told reporters on May 12 he thinks about the Middle East more than Americans' pocketbook woes.

"I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation," Trump said. "I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all."

Battling those headwinds will be tough. But Gianforte's been at the center of many political fights (sometimes literally – he pleaded guilty and apologized after assaulting a reporter in 2017, later having to attend anger management counseling).

"Greg is smart and, by the way, never wrestle him," Trump, a friend of Gianforte’s, said of the Montana Republican at a rally in 2018.

Democrats, meanwhile, have pounced on the president’s messaging missteps. They're also sounding the alarm on concerns from election integrity advocates, who've noted that Republicans running for governor in battleground states have histories of undermining elections – and would oversee the 2028 presidential race if they win. 

In a statement to USA TODAY, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the head of the Democratic Governors Association, said public sentiment is clearly on his party's side, and it will deliver victories in the fall.

"At a time when Donald Trump is making everything more expensive and creating chaos, our Democratic governors and candidates are talking about how they’ll make people’s lives easier by bringing down costs, creating jobs, investing in public education, and protecting healthcare," he said. "That’s a huge contrast."

Contributing: USA TODAY graphics reporter Jennifer Borresen

Zachary Schermele is a congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach him by email at [email protected]. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.