Rubio catches up to Vance in new 2028 Republican presidential poll

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surged and Vice President JD Vance has lost sizable ground in a new poll of 2028 Republican primary contenders, a potential sign of a competitive primary fight to replace President Donald Trump as the next GOP nominee.

Vance, at 36%, is the top choice among Republican voters in a new Emerson College Polling national survey released on May 28. But he's now statistically tied with Rubio, who is the top choice of 35% of Republican voters who were polled.

It marks a significant 15-point climb for Rubio since Emerson's previous poll of the potential Republican field in February, while Vance's support as the top choice fell by 16 percentage points over the same period.

Far behind Vance and Rubio among possible 2028 Republican contenders are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, both the top choice of 5% of GOP voters. Fifteen percent of respondents in the poll said they were undecided.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points, was a sample of 432 likely Republican primary voters nationally taken May 24 and May 25.

Neither Vance nor Rubio have formally announced intentions to run for president. Rubio's rise comes as he's taken on a significantly higher profile in the Trump administration amid Trump's military engagements in Venezuela and in Iran. In recent weeks, Vance has made several speeches and traveled outside Washington to tout the administration's efforts to tackle fraud in federal social programs.

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Trump has talked up both Rubio and Vance as his possible heir apparent to lead the MAGA movement, declining so far to pick one over the other. Trump, who has openly toyed with running for an unconstitutional third term in 2028, is term-limited from running again.

Trump, at a May 11 dinner he hosted at the White House Rose Garden for law enforcement, polled the audience on who should we be atop the 2028 Republican ticket.

"We got a lot of beauties out there," Trump said. "I don't know, who's it going to be? Is it going to be JD? Is it going to be somebody else?"

A separate Emerson poll of likely Democratic voters found a wide open race with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg topping contenders with 18%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, 16%; New York U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 11%; Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 10%; former Vice President Kamala Harris, 10%; and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, 9%.

The Democratic poll, a sample of 432 likely Democratic primary voters, was taken during the same time frame and also has a margin of error of 4.7% percentage points.

Consistent with other national polls, the Emerson survey found Trump's approval rating has dropped to 39%, while 55% of Americans disapprove of his job performance as president.

Reach Joey Garrison on X @joeygarrison.