Trump visiting Oklahoma and Texas (again). This seat flipped in 2018 upset

• President Donald Trump is traveling to Oklahoma and Texas on Oct. 1.
• Trump has vowed to travel to 35 competitive races ahead of the midterm elections.
• In 2018, Democrats flipped a seat in Oklahoma in an upset.

President Donald Trump is headed to Texas and Oklahoma on Oct. 1, part of a midterm campaign push that will likely have him zig-zag all over the country in coming weeks.

Trump has visited Texas to campaign multiple times already. In the open race for the Senate seat in ruby-red Texas, Democrats are hoping for an upset with their candidate state Rep. James Talarico against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. While Texas is largely seen as a Republican stronghold, several polls have shown Talarico in the lead by multiple points.

Trump's visit may come at an awkward time as the New York Times reported this week that Paxton privately said Trump's midterm convention in Dallas may have hurt his own campaign. Paxton's team called the report "manipulated nonsense" and Trump said in the Oval Office on Sept. 30 that he hadn't heard the comments.

Oklahoma is also a Republican stronghold, but Trump's party suffered a surprising loss in the 2018 midterms. Here is what to know about Trump's trip to Durant, Oklahoma, and Denton, Texas, his midterm record and approval ratings.

Oklahoma home to surprise Dem flip in 2018 midterms

In the 2018 midterm elections during Trump's first term, Republicans lost 41 House seats and gained two Senate seats, according to the American Presidency Project. (In the 2022 midterms under former President Joe Biden, Democrats lost nine House seats and won one Senate seat.)

One of those Republicans lost was in ruby-red Oklahoma in a surprising upset when Democrat Kendra Horn beat the incumbent Republican for a district that Trump carried by 13 points in 2016. Rep. Stephanie Bice won back the seat for Republicans in 2020 and is running for reelection against Jena Nelson. The Oklahoman, part of the USA TODAY Network, reported last month that national Democrats are looking to make a late push in that district for the 2026 midterms. The Cook Political Report rates the race as solidly Republican.

In Texas, Democrats flipped two House seats in 2018, according to Ballotpedia: District 7, won by Rep. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, who still holds the seat today, and District 32, won by former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost a Senate race against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 and is running for the House of Representatives again this fall.

In 2018, Democrats were also hopeful for a rising star candidate to flip a Texas Senate seat. However, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke still lost to Cruz by a margin of about three percentage points.

What are the toss-up races in Texas?

In Texas, Cook Political Report rates the race for the 34th district of Texas, held by Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, to be a toss-up. The open Senate race between Talarico and Paxton is also considered a toss-up by Cook.

What is Trump's approval rating in Texas and Oklahoma?

Trump's average approval rating nationally sits at 37% approval and 61% disapproval as of Oct. 1, according to the New York Times polling aggregator.

Trump's approval rating is net negative in both Oklahoma and Texas, according to pollster calculations. Morning Consult rolls up its poll results over a three-month period to calculate the state approval rating. Surveys conducted April 1-June 30 found 45% of registered voters in Texas approve of Trump's job performance, compared to 52% who disapprove. Morning Consult did not provide approval ratings for Oklahoma.

The Economist uses weekly YouGov polls to make projections of the state-level approval ratings. In Texas, Trump is also in the red by a margin of 19 percentage points, according to The Economist. In Oklahoma, that margin is still net negative but smaller at six percentage points.

Where else is Trump headed for the midterms?

Trump is planning on traveling far and wide over the next month to campaign for the midterms.

"I'll be with you 100 percent. We're going to do something like I did for myself in the last presidential election. Four months out, I said, 'OK, no days off,'" Trump said at a Sept. 2 Rose Garden dinner. He said he plans to visit all 35 of the most competitive House and Senate races, even saying he will go as far as Alaska.

Here's a look at his upcoming trips:

Contributing: Mateo Rosiles, USA TODAY Network

Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at [email protected]. Follow her onX (Twitter),Threads,Bluesky andTikTok.