1 year after Lewiston shooting: Will Jared Golden's assault weapons change sway election?

LEWISTON, Maine — U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat representing a Trump-won district in Maine, faces a fierce challenge for re-election this year from Maine state Rep. Austin Theriault, R-Fort Kent.

Golden's change in position on assault weapons after Maine’s deadliest mass shooting last year may play a pivotal role in the outcome.

Golden has represented Maine’s Second Congressional District since 2018. The state’s more northern, rural, and conservative-leaning district, (it voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020), gave the former president his only Electoral College vote in New England. In 2020, Golden won re-election with Trump on the ballot.

A blue dog Democrat who has historically been a strong supporter of gun rights and distances himself from the national party, Golden has managed to continue winning despite the political orientation of his district. He’s one of just five Democrats in Congress who represent districts Trump won in 2020. 

The first time he won in 2018, he defeated the incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin in an extremely close election decided by Maine’s ranked choice voting system. 

“The default expectation coming into any election in the Second Congressional District is that it’s up for grabs,” said Mark Brewer, the chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Maine. “Either party could win this.”

Golden won his last two elections in 2020 and 2022 by about 6 points, relatively wide margins in a swing district. But this year, the race is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report and polls show the candidates are neck and neck. A Pan Atlantic Research poll found Theriault leading 47% to 44%, within the margin of error of 3.5%. 

Part of the reason for the close race likely is Golden’s change of position on assault weapons, said Brewer.

How the Lewiston shooting changed Golden’s mind

On Oct. 25, 2023, a man fatally shot 18 people at a restaurant and a bowling alley in Lewiston, Maine.

Golden, who has long been a supporter of gun rights and had opposed banning assault-style weapons like AR-15s, lives in Lewiston. Away from the town on the night on the shooting, he feared for the safety of his wife and children when he heard about the situation. One day after the shooting, he called on Congress to ban assault weapons.

“As a Marine Corps veteran who fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, I am familiar with violent death, including — unfortunately — the death of innocents. I thought I had left those experiences behind. The Lewiston shooting laid bare the false belief I held that Mainers were insulated from the mass shootings that had happened in other American communities,” Golden wrote in an op-ed calling for the ban of assault weapons. “I had opposed this policy in the past. It’s not easy to admit being wrong. But I believe I was.”

Golden has continued to emphasize his support for the Second Amendment and opposes other gun control measures like a three-day waiting period or expanding background checks. A gun owner himself, he has a record of voting in support of Second Amendment rights, voting against gun safety packages and enhanced background checks in Congress, often being the lone Democrat to do so. As a veteran who did a couple of combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as a hunter, he’s well positioned to speak on the weapons, said Brewer.

But his shift in stance is notable in a district with a strong tradition of gun ownership.

“Hunting is a big deal in the Second Congressional District. I mean, right now we're wrapping up moose hunt and bear hunt,” said Brewer. “Even in a normal year, guns would be a big issue in the district. But it's obviously bigger this time around, given the mass shooting in Lewiston, which is Golden's hometown, and then in the aftermath of that, Golden saying that he was reversing a long-standing position.”

This reversal has led gun rights groups to turn on Golden: the National Rifle Association, who had given Golden a B rating in 2022, gave him an F rating this year and endorsed his rival Theriault. He has also received an “F” rating from the Gun Owners of Maine. (Golden’s campaign has highlighted support from Sportsmen for Golden, a coalition of nearly 100 Maine gun owners and outdoorsmen.)

Theriault targets Golden over guns

Republicans have been using the gun issue to argue that Mainers can’t trust Golden. Theriault has repeatedly said Golden “flip-flopped” and “dumped” the Second Amendment.

“Jared’s first thing after [the shooting in Lewiston] was to say that he supported banning one of the most popular weapons, firearms here in Maine. That would not have solved this issue,” said Theriault in a CSPAN debate, calling for more mental health funding instead. “At the end of the day, by saying that, he is saying that he now is in line with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on Second Amendment and gun policy.”

In response, Golden said his words "came right from the heart."

“I said we should have a conversation about these most lethal of firearms. Eighteen people were killed that night. Thirteen were wounded," Golden said. "If that type of firearm wasn't the one that was used, we would have more people alive today."

Golden has focused his arguments on being on the side of law enforcement, touting his record in Congress, and emphasizing he owns guns and goes hunting. A recent ad shows a former colonel of the Maine State Police, Craig Poulin, vouching for Golden as the congressman fires a gun.

He hasn’t focused as much on the Lewiston shootings as a defense, said James Melcher, a professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington.

“I think he thinks talking about why would call attention to the issue, and he'd rather talk about his general support for gun rights, how he opposed other measures for gun control,” said Melcher. “I think he suspects that it's not the politically popular position in his district.”

When asked for comment on the anniversary of the Lewiston shooting and his stance on gun laws, Golden kept it short.

“On the anniversary of the shooting, the focus should be on remembering the victims, comforting their loved ones, and support for the ongoing healing process in our communities,” Golden said in a prepared statement.

For his part, Theriault again accused Golden of "flip-flopping."

“Jared Golden has failed Maine families across the Second Congressional District. Flip-flopping on the biggest issues facing Mainers like our lobstermen, spending, inflation, the border, the Second Amendment, voter ID, and support for the Biden/Harris ticket, Golden has become a Washington politician who puts his party bosses ahead of his constituents,” Theriault said in a statement. “It’s time for a change.”

Will the gun issue ultimately decide the Golden vs. Theriault election?

With Maine’s Second District being one of the races that could be key in deciding control of Congress, outside groups have been funneling millions into the race. Much of the spending against Golden has been focused on gun rights. According to analysis done by the Maine Morning Star, the Restoration PAC has spent over $2 million on mailers and digital ads claiming that Golden supports policies that threaten Second Amendment rights.

Melcher and Brewer think Theriault's attacks and Golden's counterarguments have been effective. Neither are sure which side is winning.

“There was a once upon a time where Golden got an A-plus rating from the NRA, and then they view this as Golden taking a wrong direction on guns. And so for those people, I'm sure that Theriault's criticism resonates,” said Brewer. “On the other hand, my guess is there are probably some folks who look at Golden's change and his explanation for this and say, 'Well, you know, I respect it, because he's changing based on principle.'”

“Which one of them has more believers? I don't know the answer to that, and if you knew the answer to that, it might give you pretty good insight on who's going to win,” he added.

There are other factors that make contribute to making this race closer than Golden’s last couple elections. It’s a presidential election year, and the presence of Trump on the ticket will likely help Theriault, who has received Trump’s “full-throated endorsement,” said Brewer.

Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, is also younger, more energetic, and more likeable than Golden’s past challengers, the professors said. And with just one other, relatively unknown write-in candidate (independent Diana Merenda), it’s unlikely that ranked choice voting will come into play like it did in 2018, when it helped Golden to victory. (The election will only go to ranked choice voting if neither candidate garners over 50% of the vote on the first count.)

If Golden loses, however, Melcher suspects the blame will fall on his position reversal on assault weapons.

“That’s going to be a lot of what the national media looks at if he loses, is to say, ‘oh, you know, Democrat representing rural district changes on this, that's dangerous for Democrats to do,’” he said. “I think the national media will pick up on the guns issue.”