Ohio GOP primary sets stage for high‑stakes showdown for Congress

• A crowded Republican primary is underway to challenge Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur for Ohio's 9th Congressional District.
• Republicans redrew the district to be more favorable to their party, making it a key target for the GOP.
• The winner will face Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congress.

A crowded primary in northwest Ohio will set the stage for one of the country's most-watched congressional races.

Five Republicans are vying for the chance to take on U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Toledo, the longest-serving woman in Congress. Kaptur represents Ohio's 9th Congressional District, which includes Toledo and the Republican counties surrounding it.

Ohio Republicans have had their sights on Kaptur for years. She won reelection in 2022 and 2024 despite GOP efforts to drive her out through redistricting. Lawmakers redrew the congressional map again last year and made the 9th District favorable to Republicans by 11 points, according to Dave's Redistricting.

That means, on paper, the odds are in the GOP's favor. The seat is a top target for national Republicans, who risk losing control of the U.S. House in 2027.

But the winner of the May 5 primary must also navigate President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings and frustration over the economy − including high gas prices driven by the Iran war.

"If the Republicans have any hope of holding the House ... a big piece of that picture would be capitalizing on their redistricting-related pickup opportunities," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. "Kaptur is a prominent person on that list."

Who's running for Ohio's 9th Congressional District?

The high stakes of the district attracted a range of candidates to the primary.

Five Republicans will appear on the May 5 ballot: state Rep. Josh Williams, R-Sylvania; former state Rep. Derek Merrin; Madison Sheahan, a former top official for Immigration and Customs Enforcement; Air Force officer Alea Nadeem; and health care data scientist Anthony Campbell.

There will be a Libertarian primary between Matthew Althaus and David Gedert, who is also known as the drag queen Sugar Vermonte. Merrin narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024, and some blamed the Libertarian candidate for siphoning votes away from him.

In a statement, Merrin said the 9th District is "critical to protecting the Republican House majority and ensuring President Trump can deliver on the America First agenda − stronger borders, lower taxes and putting American workers first." His campaign did not make him available for an interview.

On policy, the GOP candidates largely see eye to eye. In interviews with the statehouse bureau, Williams, Sheahan and Nadeem defended the Trump administration's economic policies and blamed past leadership for Americans' affordability woes. All three of them support the war in Iran.

"Most people talk politics as kitchen table politics," Sheahan said. "We’re going to meet voters where they're at."

Sheahan's late entry into the primary drew immediate scrutiny. Her campaign announcement came weeks after ICE agents killed two protesters in Minneapolis, adding fuel to a national debate over the agency's tactics. She was born in the 9th Congressional District but hadn't lived there for several years before moving back in December.

Since then, NBC News and the Washington Examiner have tied Sheahan to Homeland Security's controversial hiring of contractors and the purchase of branded ICE vehicles that can't be used.

Sheahan dismissed the reporting and said she's proud of the work she did for ICE. But Williams questioned her leadership, saying there are better ways to handle immigration enforcement.

"She left in the middle of a scandal that happened under her watch when she was there," Williams said.

'Let's be strategic'

With three weeks to go, Lucas County Republican Party Chair Barbara Orange doesn't think there's a clear frontrunner.

Sheahan's campaign dropped an ad in March touting her experience with ICE. Williams frequently appears at events, according to local GOP officials, and took second place at a chili cookoff in Ottawa County. Jill Stinebaugh, who leads the Ottawa County GOP, said Merrin is well known among voters after running in 2024.

In a statement, Kaptur's campaign said the congresswoman is working for constituents while Republicans duke it out in a messy primary.

"Voters are tired of the self-dealing corruption and culture of lawlessness they see on the evening news every night," the campaign said. "They want a leader focused on affordability and real results, and Marcy Kaptur consistently works across the aisle to deliver both."

Regardless of who wins, the general election won't be easy. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the district as "leans Republican" − a step below "likely Republican" − and Cook Political Report dubbed it a toss-up.

Orange said Republicans need their voters to turn out in November if they want to defeat Kaptur.

"The way the districts were drawn this time, it’s even more Republican-leaning," Orange said. "But if the voters don’t get out and vote, that’s really the only gauge."

To that end, Nadeem is encouraging her party to think critically about who it nominates. She contends some of her opponents are simply chasing headlines and don't know how to appeal to voters across the political spectrum. To her, Republicans' recent losses outside of Ohio prove that the same formula won't work.

"Let’s be strategic about it," Nadeem said. "It's like the same old sort of stuff. I think what I've seen is them putting up extreme candidates, and that just does not appeal to your unaffiliated, your independents and your soft Democrats. It's going to take a unique person who’s going to move those people over.”

State government reporter Haley BeMiller can be reached at [email protected] or @haleybemiller on X.