Virginia special election results: Maps approved in key redistricting vote

Virginia says "yes."

The commonwealth approved a measure that would redraw the state's congressional map in a special election on Tuesday, April 21. The result means the state legislature will temporarily adopt a new map which is poised to benefit Democrats' national ambitions during a midterm election year. The move comes on the heels of other states' efforts to change their maps ahead of November races, such as Missouri, North Carolina, Texas and California.

The measure won by a narrow margin, according to Decision Desk HQ and NBC News, but it gives Virginia Democrats a runway to win a 10-to-1 House delegation. This would be a major boost to House Democrats given Republicans' slim majority in the chamber right now.

"It was a close one," John McGlennon, professor of government at the College of William & Mary, said in an email early Wednesday to USA TODAY.

But he says the results raise a question about what happens next: "Will the Democrats be able to translate the victory on paper into more Congressional seats to offset GOP gerrymanders in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina?"

Here's what the results are and what comes next for Virginia and the national impact.

What the results say

Virginia voters were asked to answer "yes" or "no" to one question that drew massive fundraising efforts and a national spotlight. The election drew the support of several high-profile officials, including former President Barack Obama, who appeared in ads for the "yes" campaign. Both sides raised millions in funds to not only spread the news of the election but make their cause, a difficult task during a springtime off-year election.

The results were tight, with 51.5% voting "yes" and 48.5% saying "no," according to Decision Desk HQ and NBC News.

What happens next?

Typically, Virginia's state law requires redistricting every 10 years by a bipartisan commission. The recently-approved amendment allows for a unique mid-decade temporary redistricting, which will either be abandoned or adopted permanently after the 2030 census.

Opponents may take some countermeasures, McGlennon says. The Virginia Supreme Court permitted the vote to happen, but has yet to rule on a lower-court appeal against the redistricting referendum. The state's high court has precedent that it can annul election results if justices say the constitution or the law wasn't followed.

"They could still throw a wrench in the plans," McGlennon says, should the court rule against the election.

Could Republicans send the election to the U.S. Supreme Court? McGlennon says "yes," but that effort must take into consideration the U.S. Supreme Court already permitted Texas and California redistricting moves to stand.

And there's the other thing: Democrats have to win. Now that they have the map redrawn, they face the challenge of translating this to electoral results, McGlennon says. While Democrats have performed well in special elections so far this year, the party is still staring down how to clarify its platform to voters, political experts previously told USA TODAY.

Will the redistricting battle continue?

The proposed map in Virginia gives Democrats a sizeable advantage to win as many as 10 out of the state's 11 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Virginia's special election comes amid several redistricting efforts across the country ahead of the November elections.

A mid-decade redistricting was once a rare phenomena. But the national battle over congressional district mapmaking is far from over, McGlennon says. Florida officials are calling for a special redistricting legislative session, while a new Utah map could serve the Democrats. Regardless, the Virginia results set up Democrats to win this national effort, he says.

"Even if Florida moves ahead ... those nine seats are counterbalanced by California's plan to add five Democrats," he says.

The Virginia results deal a major blow to Republicans in the national redistricting fight, echoes Jennifer Lawless, professor of politics and public policy at the University of Virginia.

"The gains in Democratic districts in Virginia completely offset the gains the Republicans made in Texas," Lawless said in an email statement early Wednesday to USA TODAY. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott signed into law a new map in August that stands to flip five Democratic-held seats to Republican.

"Any advantage Trump and the Republicans thought they had created heading into the midterms vanished last night," she says. "Although the margin was closer than many expected."

Where is there an end to these map battles? Some say Congress should intervene, according to Samuel Wang, director of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project at Princeton University said to USA TODAY via email late Tuesday.

"Congress has the power to establish independent citizen commissions that take away the redistricting power from politicians," he says. "This could be part of any renewal of the Voting Rights Act."

Those seats are key as Democrats aim to chip away at the slim GOP majority in the House. Doing so would threaten Republicans' ability to pass President Donald Trump's second-term agenda.