Texas Senate race poll shows Democrat Talarico leading Republicans

This story has been updated with the latest numbers.

Texas' U.S. Senate seat race is heating up, with a new poll showing a Democratic candidate leading Republican primary candidates.

A new poll from the Texas Public Opinion Research showed that Democratic candidate James Talarico is pulling ahead of Republican primary runoff candidates Ken Paxton and John Cornyn — but only slightly.

The poll suggests that Talarico leads the two, but within the poll's margin of error. Additionally, Paxton and Cornyn are in the midst of a heated runoff in May, with the winner set to become the Republican candidate on the November ballot.

Here's a deeper dive into the poll and where Texas is in its election process.

Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton within the poll's margin of error

The poll was conducted from April 17 to 20, polling 1,865 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points.

It found that Texas State Rep. Talarico leads incumbent U.S. Sen. Cornyn by three percentage points, 44% to 41%, and also leads Texas Attorney General Paxton by five percentage points, 46% to 41%.

The poll also showed two scenarios in which Talarico would face off with Cornyn or Paxton in November 2026. The biggest takeaway is that Independents lean heavily towards Democrats in both matchups: Talarico leads 51% to 29% among Independents against Cornyn, and 53% to 28% against Paxton.

Finally, the poll showed where each candidate finds their strongest support. For Talarico, it's from Black and Latino voters and college-educated Texans.

For Cornyn and Paxton, their strongest support comes from white, non-college-educated and rural Texans.

When are Texas's primary runoff elections?

Talarico defeated other challengers — including U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crocket — during the Texas U.S. Senate Democratic primary race and is the Democratic candidate for the November 2026 General Election.

However, Cornyn and Paxton were unable to secure the coveted 50% plus one vote to become the Republican general-election candidate and will face off later in May in a runoff election. An earlier TPOR poll showed Paxton up by 8 percentage points over Cornyn in the Republican runoff.

Early voting for Texas's Democratic and Republican Primary runoff elections is set to begin on May 18, and end on May 22. Election Day is May 26.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him: [email protected].