Nebraska Senate race hinges on accusations of trying to 'trick' voters

Nebraskans are set to vote in the most unusual Senate primary campaign of the year on May 12, with Republicans and Democrats accusing each other of trying to confuse voters with phony candidates.

That's because the general election features Dan Osborn, a populist independent who came within 7 percentage points of winning a 2024 Senate race in the reliably Republican state. The 51-year-old former union president and military veteran's close margin was considerably better than the 21-point thumping former Vice President Kamala Harris received from President Donald Trump in the Cornhusker State.

As a result, Nebraska Democratic officials want to throw their support behind Obsorn against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in November.

"It's a recognition in a red state that Democrats simply cannot compete statewide and that their only hope of having a candidate that's a little closer to them ideologically or policy wise is by supporting an independent," said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.

In one corner of the primary sits Cindy Burbank, 62, a Democrat and retired pharmacy tech, who has promised to drop out of the general election and endorse Osborn if she wins the nomination. But the state GOP casts Burbank's bid as an unfair and coordinated ploy by Democrats to prop up the independent.

Burbank is competing in the Democratic primary against William Forbes, a 79-year-old pastor. He's a registered Democrat but voted for Trump three times and attended a Republican training event earlier this year, according to a March 30 CNN report. Nebraska Democrats decried his last-minute candidacy as an example of the GOP meddling in their primary with a scheme to siphon votes away from Osborn in the fall.

Political observers have said this ball of confusion makes it hard for average voters to keep track of who to support and why. The experiment also underscores how badly the Democratic Party has been damaged in the Great Plains and other swaths of the country that went overwhelmingly for Trump in 2024.

"The national Democratic brand is toxic among voters in states like Nebraska in the sense that it's very much identified with the coastal liberal elites on a whole host of issues," Jones said. "Nebraska Democrats are adopting this sort of plan B strategy, which is to not run a Democratic candidate at all."

Osborne seeks to end two-party 'doom loop' but GOP calls out Dem donors

Osborn, formerly a registered Democrat, first caught fire among progressives during a 77-day strike at Kellogg’s cereal plant in 2021. Osborn, as president of the local union in Omaha, led the fight over pay and benefits issues, such as the loss of premium health care and reduced retirement benefits.

The clash catapulted Osborn − an industrial mechanic and military veteran − onto the national stage. His unique mix of political views includes support for gun rights, legalizing medical cannabis, expanding reproductive rights and making it easier for unions to organize.

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said a consistent theme in several Democratic primaries this year has been pushing candidates to be more aligned with working-class voters over corporate donors.

That means building a consensus on defeating Ricketts outside the traditional Democratic primary system, which has consistently failed to produce a viable general election contender. Nebraska hasn't had a Democratic senator in almost 15 years.

"Osborn is a perfect example of someone who is a culturally aligned working-class populist who can duck some of the baggage associated with the Democratic brand that we need to work on medium and long-term, but don't have time for in the short term," Green said.

Obsborn has pledged he won't caucus with either major party and told USA TODAY that voters in his state are tired of politicians from both parties, "looking out for the corporate interests bankrolling their campaigns." Instead, he said, they want elected leaders who stick up for average working people such as farmers, ranchers and small business owners who "make this state run."

"We’re stuck in a two-party doom loop and it's all of the rest of us paying the price," he said in a statement. "I am running to disrupt the state of party politics in Nebraska because this system isn't working for any of us."

But national Republicans and Ricketts, who is endorsed by Trump and was appointed to the Senate in 2023 to replace Republican Ben Sasse, aren't buying the idea that he is an actual independent.

Ricketts faces four primary challengers of his own, but he's mostly ignored those rivals to put more attention towards Osborn in what could be a competitive race. Polls show Ricketts leading Osborn by just 1 percentage point.

The former governor, who is the son of the billionaire Joe Ricketts, called attention to Osborn's campaign contributions in an April 17 post on X, which include several out-of-state liberal mega-donors, such as philanthropist Wendy Schmidt and progressive organizations such as the Fight Agency, which boasts about ties to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. They have helped Osborn build up a $3.8 million treasure chest.

Nick Puglia, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP's political arm, told USA TODAY those contributions reveal Osborn is a "fake independent."

"Osborn is backed by Democrats, advised by Zohran Mamdani’s goons and his fake campaign is nothing more than an over $350,000 grift for Osborn and his relatives," he said in a statement.

There is a political action committee dubbed "Conservatives for Osborn" that Federal Election Commission records show scooped up around $230,000 for his last Senate campaign. But a review of the database for this year's election show it received no donations in the first three months of the year, and had less than $100 cash on hand.

Those donations "tell you everything you need to know about his values," Ricketts said in April.

Osborn ally versus 'fake' Democrat

The Nebraska Democratic Party is supporting Burbank in the primary after it had originally planned not to field a nominee.

Forbes' late entry and his anti-abortion rights stances worried state party leaders, who said he is trying to "trick" voters and take away some of Osborn's support in November.

"William Forbes is a Ricketts plant," Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb said in a May 7 post on X. "Don't let the MAGA Republicans mess with our primary. Vote for Cindy Burbank."

The Ricketts campaign has denied any affiliation with Forbes, who is a registered Democrat, according to state records. But progressive critics and others point out that the conservative-leaning pastor has publicly supported the former governor online in the past.

Forbes could not be reached for comment.

Burbank, for her part, was briefly kicked off the ballot by Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen in March after indicating that she wasn't running in November. She successfully sued to be reinstated.

She also has received backlash for paying the $1,740 filing fee for a third-party contender, Mike Marvin, who is running under the Legal Marijuana NOW Party banner.

Republicans alleged that Marvin plans to drop out and endorse Osborn this fall as well. He did not immediately respond to a request for comment but has denied being affiliated with any other campaign, according to reports.

A Democratic target in Omaha

Despite Nebraska's overall Republican tilt, Democrats do hope to win one congressional seat there outright. In Omaha, Republican Rep. Don Bacon, is retiring from a district that Harris carried by roughly 4 percentage points in 2024. The seat is rated as a leaning Democratic, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Democrats John Cavanaugh and Denise Powell are among the candidates competing for the Democratic nomination in the district, Nebraska's 2nd.

Powell, a former corporate executive, argues that if Cavanaugh, a state legislator, wins then it will jeopardize Nebraska's distinction as one of only two states in the country – along with Maine – that divvy up their Electoral College votes based on congressional district rather than a statewide winner-take-all formula.

“Elected Democrats in Nebraska are confident that they will pick up more than enough seats in November to offset John’s vote,” Cavanaugh's campaign website counters, arguing that Nebraska Democrats "do not have to choose between standing up to Trump and protecting our blue dot."