Will Trump's revenge tour determine key primaries in the South?

• Voters in six states will head to the polls on May 19 for key primary elections.
• The primaries will test the influence of President Donald Trump's endorsements.
• A high-profile race in Kentucky pits Trump-backed Ed Gallrein against incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie.
• Competitive primaries in Pennsylvania and Georgia could ultimately help determine party control of Congress.

Senate, House, and gubernatorial primaries in six states will test the power of President Donald Trump's endorsements on May 19.

Voters in Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Pennsylvania, Idaho, and Oregon will determine the nominees for the November general election as the Trump administration is mired in war with Iran, high inflation, a congressional redistricting battle, and the president's low job approval rating.

Meanwhile, Trump is hoping to extend what his critics call a revenge tour in the primaries after beating five out of seven state Senate incumbents he targeted in Indiana on May 5, and his endorsed candidate defeated incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana on May 16.

Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics described the May 19 races in which Trump has chosen sides as "his next big test after his wins in Indiana," as he "tries to fight off his lame duck status."

Can maverick Massie overcome Trump to prevail in Kentucky?

Among the most high-profile May 19 primary races is Kentucky's 4th Congressional District contest between Republican Rep. Thomas Massie and a Trump-endorsed GOP challenger, farmer and former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. 

Massie is facing the toughest election of his seven-term career, as this primary will be a major loyalty test for voters in the Bluegrass state and could be a barometer of the president's MAGA movement.

Massie led the congressional effort that forced the Department of Justice to release documents about accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. The libertarian-leaning lawmaker also voted against Trump's tax-cut legislation last year and supported a resolution to halt Trump's war on Iran that failed.

In response, Trump has trashed Massie, including a memorable March campaign stop in the legislator's Northern Kentucky district. The president described Massie as the "worst person" and "a total disaster," since he commands the loyalty of GOP lawmakers who hold slim majorities in the House and Senate.

"We've got to get rid of this loser," Trump said, depicting Massie. "He's disloyal to the Republican Party. He's disloyal to Kentucky. And most importantly, he's disloyal to the United States of America. He's got to be voted out of office as soon as possible."

Massie has his fair share of loyal supporters, but a new Quantis Insights poll shows Gallerin has a slight 48% to 43% advantage over Massie among likely voters. 

"Massie's never faced this serious a challenge, until now," said Erin Covey, the House of Representatives editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which forecasts U.S. elections. "While Trump is still popular among Republican voters and we've seen that in primaries over the last 10 years, taking out an incumbent is always a difficult task."

Covey also noted that the Northern Kentucky business community has long been frustrated that Massie has not made bringing federal funds to the district a priority, as Gallrein got a keyendorsement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce early this year.

Massie told WLWT-TV on May 14 that the split between him and Trump doesn't mean voters shouldn't back him. "Ninety percent of the time I vote the way the president and the party would want me to vote," Massie said. "Ten percent of the time, I'm sorry if they're bankrupting the country, if they're spying on Americans without a warrant, that's where I have to deviate from the party."

Massie said his supporters like his willingness to break occasionally with party ranks. "I think the people across the country are hungry to see at least one Republican up there who's using his own mind," Massie said.

Covey noted that the high-stakes race has also seen $30 million in ad spending, the most expensive primary race for the House of Representatives, according to Ad Impact.

"I think this race is going to be a toss-up for sure," Covey said.

Also in Kentucky, voters will choose among potential replacements for Sen. Mitch McConnell, the former Republican Senate leader, who isn’t seeking reelection after 40-plus years in office.

Kentucky GOP Congressman Andy Barr is vacating his House seat to replace McConnell, who won his last election by almost 30 percentage points. Barr, who also has Trump's endorsement, had a comfortable lead over Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron and political newcomer Nate Morris, according to an Emerson College poll released last month.

But 3 in 10 of likely conservative voters were still undecided, the poll said. The Republican nominee will be the overwhelming favorite this fall in the dark red state.

"It's still Barr's to lose," Covey said.

Pennsylvania's congressional race could determine control of the House

Meanwhile, many will be watching Pennsylvania’s competitive 7th Congressional District as the winner could determine who controls the U.S. House next year.

The May 19 primary has four Democratic candidates locked in a heated race in the Lehigh Valley to see who will go up against Trump-backed incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is running unopposed and whose district is considered a swing seat by the Cook Political Report.

Its vulnerability comes as Mackenzie flipped the district red two years ago, ousting Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild by only 1% in one of the closest congressional contests nationwide.

Democratic hopefuls looking to take back the district, including Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)-endorsed Bob Brooks, a firefighters’ union leader, and Ryan Crosswell, a former federal prosecutor, are reportedly neck-and-neck in fundraising. They are outpacing fellow candidates Carol Obando-Derstine, an engineer and former aide to former U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, and former Northampton County executive Lamont McClure.

Meanwhile, Mackenzie has raised nearly $4 million, according to the Federal Election Commission, almost totaling more than his Democratic challengers combined.

However, the district, which voted for Trump for president by three percentage points in 2024, is ripe for flipping as "Mackenzie is quite vulnerable this year," Covey, the Cook analyst, said.

"Democrats have a competitive primary. Most of the national party establishment is behind Bob Brooks," Covey said. "But, Republicans appear to be trying to boost Lamont McClure, who'd be a weaker candidate in a general election."  

Georgia's primaries could come down to runoff contests

In the closely watched Georgia primary races, both parties are looking to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in a tight contest, and several GOP candidates are seeking to unseat incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff.

For governor, eight Republicans and seven Democrats are vying for their party's nominations. make it onto the ballot in November.

On the Republican side, it's a close race between two candidates who both claim to be the right choice for the state's MAGA base. Trump-endorsed and current Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and late-entry candidate, billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson, have led the polls, with Jackson spending millions of dollars from his own fortune in campaign funding to narrow the gap with primary voters.

Jackson now leads with 28% of likely voters, with Jones slightly behind at 24%, and all other Republican candidates below 20%, according to a poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage, a Georgia-based media company. Undecided voters account for 12%, the poll found.

Does Raffensperger have a shot?

Far behind both leading gubernatorial candidates was Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who famously defended the state’s 2020 presidential election results, angering Trump. He's considered a long shot to make it to the general election.

Kemp also stood up to Trump, who was furious at the incumbent governor for refusing to help him overturn his loss of Georgia to Biden. As a result, Trump recruited former U.S. Sen. David Perdue to challenge Kemp in the 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary. Kemp not only beat Perdue but also had a decisive reelection win over upstart Democrat Stacey Abrams.

Meanwhile, Raffensperger's gubernatorial chances appear slim.

"Does Raffensperger have enough of a following where he supplants one of the MAGA-identified candidates?" said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta. "Even though Jackson doesn't have Trump's endorsement, he’s painting himself as a Trump-style politician and supporter.

"Raffensperger decided he would try to appeal to the non-MAGA wing of the party," Gillespie continued. "He took a principal stand years ago, and may now pay a price for it."

Ex-Atlanta mayor leads Georgia Democratic hopefuls for governor

On the Democratic side for governor, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is leading the pack, according to the polls. She's followed by former GOP Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, who switched parties, longtime politician Michael Thurmond, and four other lesser-known candidates.

Bottoms' name recognition across the state, as well as endorsements from high-powered Democrats, including former President Joe Biden, has kept her atop the primary.

But Bottoms may not win the majority needed to avoid a runoff.

"Candidates on both sides of the gubernatorial race have attracted a lot of high-quality candidates either based on prior office holding or business experience," Gillespie said. "Given that depth, none of the polling is suggesting that one candidate has a lock on the nomination."

GA GOP Senate contenders fight to challenge Ossoff

In the Senate primary, Republican contenders U.S. Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter are taking on political outsider Derek Dooley, a former football coach and the son of legendary University of Georgia football head coach Vince Dooley.

During a heated debate last month, Carter questioned whether voters could trust Collins, referencing the latter's ongoing ethics investigation. Collins struck back, saying, "I find it ironic that a career politician is talking about ethics, and your career has been littered with complaints, crooked land deals, you've even tripled your net worth."

Dooley, who trails both Collins and Carter in the polls, also has Kemp's endorsement.

While Ossoff, who is running unopposed in the Democratic primary, is "a slight favorite" to regain his seat, according to Jessica Taylor, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, a recent Emerson College poll suggests the senator could be in a dogfight.

Ossoff was slightly ahead of Carter, 47% to 44%, and beating Collins 48% to 43% and Dooley 49% to 41%, the poll found. Undecided voters were in the 9% range, the survey of 1,000 respondents added.

"The dynamics have changed," Emory's Gillespie said. "It's not surprising to see there's this much interest by Republicans to try to beat Osoff for that seat."

Voters shouldn't hold their breath, though, as with a record turnout for early voting, Emory's Gillespie and Cook's Taylor both think the two key Georgia races will come down to runoff elections on June 16.

"Everybody should be bracing themselves to do this all over again next month," Gillespie said.

Will Tommy Tuberville win the Alabama governor nomination?

In heavily Republican Alabama, GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville is running for governor and the conservative lawmaker's Senate seat will be up for grabs.

Tuberville dominates the gubernatorial ballot with 65% support among likely voters, according to a recent state poll conducted by Gray Television stations and the Alabama Daily News. Tuberville is overwhelmingly ahead of challengers Ken McFeeters (7%) and Will Santivasci (3%).

Tuberville has served in the Senate since 2021. Before entering politics, he was a longtime college football coach best known for leading Auburn from 1999 to 2008, and is known by most in the Senate simply as "Coach."

As for his Senate seat, Rep. Barry Moore, who has Trump's coveted endorsement, is looking to stave off state Attorney General Steve Marshall and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson.

But it might not be that easy, Cook's Taylor said.

"It’s a bit baffling why Moore isn’t running away more with the race, given he has Trump’s backing and a huge advantage on the state’s relatively cheap airwaves," Taylor said in a May 11 report. "With such a heavy media presence, it’s a strong possibility that undecided voters will break late for Moore and give him a majority of the vote."