Talarico leads Paxton in first Texas Senate poll after GOP runoff

Just days after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas Senate Republican runoff, a new poll finds that he is trailing the Democratic challenger, but only narrowly.

A new poll by the Texas Public Opinion Research showed that Democratic candidate state Rep. James Talarico is pulling ahead as Paxton and he vie to become the next senator from Texas in November.

Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat to hold the seat since Sen. Bob Krueger in 1993. Paxton is trying to maintain Republican control of the seat

The poll comes as both campaigns work to consolidate their parties for the November general election.

Talarico leads Paxton within the poll's margin of error

The poll was conducted from May 27 to May 28, polling 1,670 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

It found Talarico leads Paxton 47% to 44% in the U.S. Senate general election, aided by 72% of moderates and 64% of independents.

Another key finding was that Paxton did not gain prospective voters who voted for Cornyn in the runoff.

Nearly a third — 30% — said they would vote for Talarico, while 44% would vote for Paxton. The remaining 23% are either undecided or say that they will not vote.

Among the GOP runoff voters who plan to support Talarico, 51% cite Paxton's criminality or corruption as their primary reason.

For context, Paxton was indicted on three felony counts of securities fraud in 2015. The case was dismissed in March 2024. Paxton was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 but was acquitted by the Texas Senate later that year.

Only 10% gave a positive reason for supporting Talarico, with another 10% describing themselves as reluctant voters — supporting Talarico because they see no acceptable alternative. An additional 7% cite Paxton’s alignment with Donald Trump and 5% express broader disillusionment with the Republican Party.

Talarico holds higher favorability than Paxton or Trump

According to the poll, 38% of Texans view Paxton favorably. As the poll noted, he is the second most unpopular major political figure tested after John Cornyn.

When it comes to Trump, 48% of Texans approve of the president.

Talarico, by comparison, is viewed favorably by 47% of Texans.

Affordability ranks as the top issue for Texas voters

The poll found that Texans rank affordability and the cost of living as their top concern, with 23% of voters citing it as their priority — more than double any other issue.

That is followed by democracy and voting rights at 11%, immigration at 10%, health care and access at 9%, and economic growth and job creation at 7%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at [email protected].