Why some Texas Republicans are backing Talarico for US Senate

Republicans could have a stiff battle ahead if they hope to maintain control of one of Texas' U.S. Senate seats.

A new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, released only days after the May 26 runoff, showed state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, with a slight lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton ahead of their November showdown. The poll surveyed 1,607 likely Texas voters between May 27 and 28.

The poll found Talarico leading Paxton by a narrow four percentage points, 47% to 43%.

Perhaps most disheartening for the GOP, the polls found that nearly a third of Republican voters who cast their ballot for incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who was defeated by Paxton in the runoff, said they plan to vote for Talarico in November.

Only 44% of former Cornyn voters said they would back Paxton, and they did not mince words on why they refuse to cast a ballot for the attorney general.

"Paxton does not have good morals," said one white, female independent voter when asked to explain why she would be voting for Talarico over Paxton. "He has been involved in too many scandals."

"Paxton is a crook impeached by Republicans (and) spared by (the) Senate boys club," said a white, male Republican voter. "He lies with the ease we all exhale. Corrupt disgusting individual. I know nothing of Talarico but know I like him better than Pax to represent me."

Here are some key findings from the poll:

• Among independent voters, Talarico leads Paxton 64% to 21%, with 11% undecided.
• Talarico leads Paxton among voters who identify as moderate by a 57-point margin (72% to 15%). Among voters who identify as “somewhat” conservative, 66% intend to vote for Paxton, while 18% plan to vote for Talarico. 
• Talarico leads Paxton with Black voters by a 38-point margin (64% to 26%). When it comes to Latino voters, the race is currently within the margin of error — 42% say they will support Talarico, while 46% say they will support Paxton; 10% of Latino voters are undecided. Among white voters, the race is a dead heat. 46% say they plan to vote for Paxton, compared to 45% for Talarico.
• Paxton's net favorability stands at -19 (38% favorable, 57% unfavorable). He trails President Donald Trump (-3 net), Greg Abbott (-6 net), and even a generic "Republican candidate running for office" (+6 net) by wide margins. Talarico holds the second-highest net favorability rating of all figures tested, at +7 (47% favorable, 40% unfavorable). Notably, at net +16 favorability, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa leads all figures tested, though 38% of voters remain unfamiliar with her. 

Adam Powell covers government and politics for the El Paso Times and can be reached via email at [email protected].