Texas Senate poll reveals which voters back Paxton, Talarico

Texas Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico is leading in another consecutive poll against Republican Ken Paxton, and the poll breaks down which Texans are backing who.

A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. poll released Sept. 15 showed Talarico leading Paxton 46% to 43%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 8% of voters undecided.

Talarico's lead is within the poll's 4-point margin of error, as it surveyed 625 registered Texas voters from Sept. 8-10 who said they are likely to vote in the November 2026 election.

Here's a breakdown of where Paxton and Talarico are pulling their support less than two months from Election Day and how it compares to recent polling in August and September.

Rural Texans back Paxton while Talarico finds support in major cities in Texas Senate race

By demographics, the Mason-Dixon poll shows Talarico's lead is driven by strong support from women, younger voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters, and independents. Talarico wins women by 16 points (52%-36%), voters ages 18-34 by 14 points (51%-37%), Black voters by 75 points (85%-10%), Hispanic voters by 18 points (54%-36%) and independents by 21 points (51%-30%).

Paxton, by contrast, is anchored by Republicans, white voters, men and older Texans. He wins Republicans 88%-5%, white voters 54%-36% and men 51%-39%. He also performs best among voters ages 35-49 and runs roughly even among voters 65 and older.

Breaking down the candidates' support by region, Paxton is drawing the majority of his support in East Texas (58%) and West Texas (52%).

Talarico draws a majority of his support from the Houston metro area (46%), Central Texas (57%) and South Texas (54%). Both candidates are tied at 45% in the Dallas-Fort Worth region.

What previous Texas Senate polling showed

This is the latest poll in September as the election cycle enters its final stretch to Election Day on Nov. 3.

There have already been three polls so far in September that have shown the following:

• SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.
• AARP (Sept. 10) —  Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
• N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.

These three polls follow an August full of polls that showed the race between the two had been within the single digits:

• Texas Public Opinion Research (Aug. 27) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 42%.
• University of Texas/Texas Politics Project (Aug. 25) — Talarico 42%, Paxton 39%.
• Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media (Aug. 13) — Paxton 47%, Talarico 46%.
• Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School (Aug. 7) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 43%.
• Texas Southern University (Aug. 4) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at [email protected].