New Texas Senate poll shows dead heat between Talarico, Paxton

The Texas Senate race has produced a steady run of polls this past month, most of which give the Democratic candidate a modest lead over the Republican. However, a new survey puts them within a single point.

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll released Sept. 17 showed Democrat James Talarico is now statistically tied within the poll's margin with Republican Ken Paxton, 47% to 46%. The poll also found that 4% of voters remain undecided and 2% support Libertarian Ted Brown.

Since Emerson's August poll, the pollster said its polling data has shown no significant movement — Talarico gained a point while Paxton lost a point between the two polls. However, various polls throughout August and September showed Talarico with a much larger lead as the race entered its final stretch.

Here's what the Emerson/Nexstar poll found and how it compares with other recent polls.

James Talarico ties with Ken Paxton in new Texas Senate September poll

The Emerson poll was conducted Sept. 12-14, after the Republican midterm convention in Texas, among a sample of 1,000 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The poll found Talarico with a positive favorability score: 48% favorable and 42% unfavorable, while Paxton had a negative score: 40% favorable and 48% unfavorable. 

“Texas Hispanic voters, who broke for Trump in 2024, now break for Talarico by 15 points, 54% to 39%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “These voters disapprove of the president 53% to 41%, and 51% think the state is on the wrong track rather than the right direction.”

Following the RNC midterm convention in Dallas, the poll found that 90% of voters had heard about it, with 51% saying it made them more excited to vote in November. Meanwhile, 47% said it had no impact on their vote, and 2% said it made them less excited to vote. 

“Notably, majorities of both Republicans (59%) and Democrats (53%) say the convention made them more excited to vote this November, while 68% of independents say it made no impact on their vote,” Kimball noted. 

What previous Texas Senate polling showed

This is the latest poll in September as the election cycle enters its final stretch to Election Day on Nov. 3.

There have already been four polls so far in September that have shown the following:

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%.
• SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.
• AARP (Sept. 10) —  Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
• N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.

These four polls follow an August full of polls that showed the race between the two had been within the single digits:

• Texas Public Opinion Research (Aug. 27) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 42%.
• University of Texas/Texas Politics Project (Aug. 25) — Talarico 42%, Paxton 39%.
• Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media (Aug. 13) — Paxton 47%, Talarico 46%.
• Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School (Aug. 7) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 43%.
• Texas Southern University (Aug. 4) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at [email protected].