Election Polls

NYT poll shakes up Texas Senate, governor's races before early voting

USA TODAY NETWORK

Oct. 5, 2026Updated Oct. 6, 2026, 8:56 a.m. ET

Two weeks before early voting starts, a new October poll from The New York Times showed Republicans could face a tougher battle in two high-profile races.

The Oct. 3 NYT/ Siena College poll showed Republican Ken Paxton trailing Democrat James Talarico by 6 points, 45% to 51%, in the Texas Senate race — up from a tie in a June poll.

In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa is leading Gov. Greg Abbott, 49% to 46%, within the poll's margin of error — a flip from where the June poll had her trailing.

Here's what the poll found and where the races stand as early voting starts Oct. 19.

James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race as Election nears

The poll was conducted among 615 likely voters in Texas from Sept. 21 to Sept. 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton campaigns for the U.S. Senate on Sept. 21, 2026, in Houston.

It showed that Talarico is leading Paxton among women, 56%-40%; voters aged 18-29, 66%-22%; and Hispanics, 62%-30 %.

While Talarico is leading Paxton by the poll's margin, 4% are still unsure who they will vote for or have said they will not vote.

On who has "good character," Talarico leads Paxton 55% to 32%.

James Talarico is highlighting a growing list of Republican leaders who have crossed party lines to back his U.S. Senate campaign.

Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls

Here's what September polls showed:

Marist Poll (Sept. 23) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%.
SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.
AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.

Gov. Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa tied ahead of early voting, says poll

While recent polling has shown Hinojosa trailing Abbott over the past few months, the Times/Siena poll is now one of several showing her leading the Republican incumbent — but still within the poll's margin of error.

Hinojosa, like Talarico, leads her opponent among women (59%-39%), Hispanics (64%-28%), and younger voters aged 18-29 (61%-27%).

One hot-button issue over the past few months has been data centers, with this new poll finding that 57% of voters strongly or somewhat oppose their construction.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott arrives to speak during the second day of the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 10, 2026.

Recent Texas governor's race polls

Here's what September polls showed:

Marist Poll (Sept. 23) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%.
Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.
Emerson College Polling (Sept. 17 ) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.
ReconMR Texas poll (Sept. 17) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 45%.
Mason-Dixon Polling (Sept. 15) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 41%.
SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 44%.
N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Abbott 47%, Hinojosa 47%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at [email protected].

Featured Weekly Ad