Anti-Trump Maine voters to decide fate of GOP's only New England senator

BANGOR, Maine − As the only Republican senator from a state that President Donald Trump lost in 2024, Maine's Susan Collins was supposed to be the most vulnerable Senate Republican up for re-election in 2026.

Trump's presidency is unpopular in Maine, where the Iran war has driven up the cost of heating oil, Canadian tariffs have strained the relationship with its neighbor, and an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer killed a man in July. Just 40% of Maine registered voters approved of Trump's job performance, compared to 59% who disapproved, according to a Marist Poll released Oct. 6.

Collins' Democratic challenger, logger and former state Senate president Troy Jackson, is linking Collins to Trump.

Yet Collins, the only Republican senator in all of New England, may win a sixth term on Nov. 3. Polls range from Jackson up 4 percentage points in the Marist Poll to Collins up 3 points in a New York Times/Siena University poll out Sept. 24. The polls average out to Collins trailing Jackson by 1.4 points as of Oct. 23, per Real Clear Politics. That puts her closer to her Democratic opponent than Republicans trailing in other states Trump carried, such as North Carolina and Ohio.

Collins, 73, has appeared vulnerable before. She was behind her 2020 Democratic challenger in poll after poll, but she won by about 9 points in the same year that her state chose Democrat Joe Biden over Trump by roughly the same margin.

Even with the 2026 election shaping up to be a referendum on Trump, the New York Times/Siena University poll conducted Sept. 15-22 found 12% of Maine voters said they wanted Democrats to control the Senate but also planned to vote for Collins, who has the ability to bring money back to Maine as chair of the powerful Appropriations Committee.

"I think there's a fear among a fair number of voters in Maine that if Collins loses, then Maine will be hurt in terms of the money it gets from the national government. ... some of those people think, you know, 'I really don't like those other Republicans, but it would hurt our state without (funding) to not have her in (office),'” said Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine-Farmington, mentioning that Maine is the poorest state in New England. “That’s always been Susan Collins’ brand.”

Trump era has polarized Maine, dwindling Collins' lead

State registration data shows about 31.5% of Maine registered voters are not affiliated with a party, a similar proportion to the nation as a whole, but Maine voters have a long-established independent streak. Maine's other senator, Angus King, is one of two independents in the Senate, though he caucuses with the Democrats. He previously served as Maine's governor as an independent from 1995-2003.

Collins has long been ranked by the Lugar Center and Georgetown University as the most bipartisan senator across any party. She has long supported abortion rights and has voted for gun reform legislation. Collins served alongside former Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, another moderate who retired in 2013. Together they bucked their party on some legislation, such as backing former President Barack Obama's 2009 stimulus bill.

Rep. Jared Golden of Maine's more rural, northern, 2nd Congressional District, is a Democrat who has drawn ire from party leaders for defecting. In April, he was the only Democrat to vote against a war powers resolution to stop the war in Iran (it failed by a single vote). Golden also endorsed Rep. Mike Lawler, R-New York, in a tight reelection campaign, praising his bipartisan record. Golden is not running for reelection, and former Republican Gov. Paul LePage is favored to win the race by Cook Political Report for his conservative-leaning seat against Democratic state auditor Matt Dunlap.

But national politics have become more divided on party lines, especially in the Trump era, making it harder for Collins to win in a Democratic-leaning state. In 2008, Obama, a Democrat, won the state with over 57% of the vote, and Collins won reelection with over 61% of the vote. In 2014, her win grew to 67% of the vote, but in 2020, when Trump was also on the ballot for reelection, Collins won just 51% of the vote.

"Trump has in some ways been the absolute worst thing that could have happened to Susan Collins," Melcher said. "She has tried very hard to look nonpartisan, 'I deliver for Maine,' and Trump keeps putting her in positions where she can't ride both of them."

Collins' bipartisanship claims at the center of all debates

Collins is leaning into bipartisanship as a selling point in her campaign, bringing in former Sen. Joe Manchin, a former Democrat from West Virginia who now is a registered independent. Manchin joined Collins on Oct. 21 in the Lewiston area, one of Maine's biggest cities, even as Democratic protesters held big cutouts of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's face outside one of their stops, according to the Bangor Daily News. Her vote to confirm Kavanaugh, a conservative nominated by Trump, and the subsequent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, has been one of the attack points from Jackson and the Democrats.

"We have to get Susan Collins out of office. She has enabled Trump to continue his depravations," said Mazie Hough, 78, a registered Democrat, at an Oct. 17 No Kings protest against the Trump administration in Orono, Maine.

In a marathon of four debates across two weeks in October, Collins and Jackson continually played ping-pong over how independent from Trump she really is. Jackson says she votes with Trump 96% of the time. Collins says that statistic is too narrow, and says she is rated as the most bipartisan senator.

"We've lost a lot of the centrists, and one reason I'm running again is we need people who will work across party lines," Collins said at an Oct. 15 debate.

Asked at the same debate for an example of a time she voted against her party and actually changed the policy outcome, she touted her efforts to organize her colleagues against the confirmation of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. However, Hegseth was ultimately confirmed.

An analysis from CQ Roll Call published Oct. 1 of the majority of Trump's second term found Collins voted with the president 92% of the time. A New York Times analysis of her voting record found that her opposing votes rarely stopped Trump's agenda from passing.

"I decide my vote on what I believe is best for Maine and for America, not on whether or not any president – and I've worked with five – is for it or against it," she said of these criticisms when speaking alongside Manchin at a New Balance factory in Norway, Maine, on Oct. 21. "I'm proud of my record, of making the independent decisions, regardless of who is in the White House."

Bob Rotolo, 60, traveled hours north in Maine to attend the Oct. 15 debate as a Jackson supporter. He told USA TODAY he identifies as an independent and has voted for Collins in the past but will not do so in this election.

"I'm disenchanted with how she just agrees with everything Trump does," he said. "It's unacceptable."

Collins' campaign communications director Blake Kernen pointed to the difference in who stumped for the candidates to illustrate the race. Where Collins brought in Manchin, Jackson has been joined by progressive firebrands Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D- New York.

"She is the most bipartisan Senator – that is how she gets so much done," Kernen said in a statement to USA TODAY.

Jackson-aligned volunteers try to chip away at loyalty to Collins

Voters who support Collins are quick to think of an example of her influence in the state. Loren Fields, 61, said her office helped resolve a passport issue ahead of his son's overseas wedding. "She's earned my loyalty and vote," he told USA TODAY in Penobscot County, part of the more conservative 2nd Congressional District.

Kelly Robinson, 49, said she has voted for both parties in the past, including for Rep. Golden, but plans to support Collins.

"I love what Susan Collins has done for our state so far, and I think she's done a lot of good and brought in a lot of money," Robinson said, mentioning funding Collins recently announced for a new fire station and library in her town of Kenduskeag.

Mounting a contest against the 30-year senator is Jackson, also from the same far-north Aroostook County where Collins grew up. He comes from a family of loggers, speaks with a Maine accent tinged with French-Canadian, and served in the Maine state legislature for 20 years. He was the state Senate president for six years, where he gained a reputation as a scrappy, if at times emotional, champion for progressive policies. He cosponsored Maine's expanded abortion rights protection and passed legislation giving loggers and haulers the right to unionize.

But reports also surfaced about a temper at work, including a 2021 incident where he threw a water bottle during an argument with a colleague. In response, Jackson's campaign pointed to his former state Senate colleagues campaigning on his behalf, including women who say he is a friend but whose images were used in a Republican attack ad. Jackson's campaign argues that the GOP fears his advocacy for the working class.

"It’s why they can trust him to fight for them in the U.S. Senate and lower costs across the board," Jackson campaign spokesperson Maggie Amjad said in a statement to USA TODAY.

Jackson had just a few months to run his Senate campaign after losing the Democratic primary in the state's gubernatorial race. His predecessor on the Democratic ticket, Graham Platner, garnered heaps of national media attention before dropping out of the race following several scandals, including a rape allegation, which he denies. His charisma and anti-establishment messaging inspired a grassroots movement that helped him overtake Maine's Democratic Gov. Janet Mills in the primary.

Progressives in the state have sought to take that inspiration and run with it. His volunteers made their own organization, People Powered Maine, which has targeted unaffiliated, infrequent voters in its door-knocking strategy. Mitchell Cooper, who leads volunteer canvassing groups with the organization, described it as a place to talk with people not in the party, since there are so many unaffiliated voters in the state.

After an afternoon of canvassing in Bangor, Maine, on Oct. 15, Melissa Berky, a founding member of progressive activist group Indivisible Bangor, said Platner's scandals felt like old news now, but "the enthusiasm didn't go anywhere." She has knocked doors with both the Democratic Coordinated Campaign and People Powered Maine. She found it a productive way to campaign, but recounted a familiar conversation.

"'I'm a Democrat, but I just don't like Troy,'" Berky recounted hearing from voters during her canvassing conversations. "We hear that a lot."

She mused it could be because of preconceived notions about his accent, or because he has been defined by the race's expensive attack ads in his short campaign. Berky later added that they seem open to changing their stance during the conversations.

Peter Howe, vice president of the University of Maine Graduate Workers Union and member of the Maine AFL-CIO, knocks on doors to make the case that Jackson would be better for the working class.

"We talk to a lot of people who have been long-time Collins voters, some of them who tell us they’re on the fence now and some of them who are leaning towards voting for her again because they feel loyal, even though they don't like what Trump is doing right now," Howe said.

"She has no doubt brought money to Maine, but we are losing a lot more money in federal cuts," he added, referring to the Republican tax and spending cuts law Trump referred to as the "One Big Beautiful Bill," which cut billions of dollars from the state's Medicaid program.

People across the political spectrum in Penobscot said that a lot of Maine is a rural community, that its people are struggling, and they have to stick together. It could be the driving force behind the state's independence.

"Everyone is in it together," said Cooper at a door-knocking debrief with People Powered Maine. "It feels much less partisan when it's so community-based."

Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She is reporting from Maine for the 2026 midterm elections. Reach her at [email protected]. Follow her onInstagram andTikTok.