Why is Trump coming to Daytona a week after Florida stop?

We know President Donald Trump is coming to Daytona Beach this week for a political rally just four days ahead of the midterm election.

We know he's doing so in support of Republican candidates, starting with Byron Donalds for governor and Ashley Moody for U.S. Senate. That's why he's coming.

What we don't know, specifically, is why Daytona Beach? Why a second Florida event on a second consecutive Friday? Convention would seem Florida — with Republicans holding a huge voter-registration advantage over Democrats — is safe ground for the GOP.

Is that no longer the thinking? Ahead of his scheduled 7 p.m., Oct. 30 speech at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, we asked some local party leaders and political experts.

Volusia Republican: Don't read too much into it

Emma Hall, spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, which is organizing the rally, offered this:

“President Trump and Republicans like Ashley Moody and Byron Donalds cut taxes, lowered prescription drug costs, slashed violent crime, and delivered the most secure border in history. As President Trump barnstorms the country, Floridians are fired up to rally with him because they love America First results and hate the insane agenda of socialist hack Angie Nixon and far-left extremist David Jolly.”

Vic Baker, Volusia state committeeman to the Republican Party of Florida, said Trump has visited a number of states multiple times. Indeed, Trump will have visited at least 16 states for campaign events since the start of September.

When he visits Lubbock, Texas, on Oct. 27, Trump will have campaigned in the Lone Star State four times. A Chillicothe, Ohio, event the following day will have been his second this month.

"He's putting emphasis on areas where he thinks he can have the best influence," Baker said, noting that Florida is a large and populous state. "He gets one on the Gulf Coast and he gets one on the East Coast. And Daytona is an ideal location, where he could get a pretty good turnout."

Trump is swimming in a tide of incumbent presidents being stung by midterm electorates. The last president whose party gained House seats in a midterm election was George W. Bush in 2002, although Joe Biden's Democrats picked up one seat in the Senate in the last midterm, 2022.

"He's working to reverse that trend by firing up the base, and the excitement surrounding this visit has been intense," Baker said.

Democratic Party chair: Rallies aren't ending war, lowering prices

Volusia County Democratic Chair Nick Sakhnovsky called attention to how the rally was announced just a week ahead of time.

"What I think is telling is the lateness at which this was scheduled, which indicates to me they know they need to shore up their base," Sakhnovsky said. "I think it's not going to be adequate because what people are looking for is an end to the war in Iran and a lowering of gas prices."

Democrats, he said, are encouraged by the "desperate fashion" Trump has demonstrated at the rallies, which have stretched from Syracuse, New York, to Wasilla, Alaska, including stops in Alabama, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Tennessee, states Republicans have controlled for decades.

Republicans in Florida face 'uncertainty' in midterm election

Earlier this year, Florida lawmakers followed through on a suggestion by Trump that they redraw congressional districts in an effort to make the 20 House seats the GOP held in Florida 24. The state has 28 congressional districts.

Aubrey Jewett, associate professor of political science at the University of Central Florida, said Trump's effort to help Florida Republicans does offer some reason for concern that their monopoly on statewide offices and attempt to flip four of those congressional seats blue through gerrymandering might be in jeopardy.

"The logical speculation would be that Republicans are a little concerned about keeping Florida's Republican Senate, governor and congressional seats, and they're bringing in the president to fire up the base. It's Political Campaigning 101." Jewett said.

But, he added, it's unclear whether Trump is coming at the request of Republican candidates in Florida or on his own.

"This president does have a reputation of being very idiosyncratic, and doing things because he wants to without necessarily thinking of the bigger picture," Jewett said.

Political analyst Susan MacManus, a professor emeritus from the University of South Florida, recently spoke about the 2026 election at the Tiger Bay Club of Volusia County's Oct. 8 luncheon, and noted the economy and cost of living has consistently been the top issue of the campaign.

She also noted that the state has undergone a transformation during the Trump era, shifting from more registered Democrats to a margin of well over 1 million more Republicans.

"Obviously, there is uncertainty for Republicans, with all of the working-class people who voted in 2024, with the economy or whatever showing up in every poll," MacManus said in an Oct. 26 phone interview. "With his choice of Fort Myers and Daytona, he's going for parts of the state with a large concentration of these new Republican voters, and trying to shore them up a bit." 

MacManus said candidates and advocates who directly connect with voters through rallies increase the likelihood those voters will head to polls, and improve the chances they will vote for those candidates.

FSU pollster says Trump's visits aimed to 'energize voters'

While Florida State University's Institute for Governance and Civics released a poll of 1,247 Florida adults conducted between Oct. 2 and 9 showing Donalds with a 10-point lead over Democrat David Jolly, yet other polls have shown that race and others to be much closer.

Ryan Owens, the institute's director and a professor of political science, believes Trump's motives for returning to Florida are simple.

"Trump is likely coming to energize supporters and these events tend to draw news coverage and draw attention to candidates up and down the ballot," Owens said. "For him to come to Florida, it's a bit of a homecoming, and a way to juice up turnout among supporters."

Campaigns can never be considered givens.

"You can't take anything for granted in politics," Owens said. "... Strange things happen." 

− Mark Harper covers politics, government, and education for The News-Journal, with a focus on Florida, mostly in Volusia County. He can be reached at [email protected].