New Fox News poll shows Texas Senate race closer than expected

A new Fox News poll shows the Texas U.S. Senate race tightening weeks before Election Day, with Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow two-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton, 51% to 49%.

The poll, released Oct. 1, surveyed 1,203 likely Texas voters between Sept. 24 and Sept. 28. It adds to growing evidence that Texas — long considered reliably red — could play a pivotal role in the fight for Senate control in November.

Talarico remains more favorably viewed than Paxton. Fifty-two percent of respondents view Talarico favorably compared with 44% unfavorably, while Paxton sits at 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable.

The Democrat holds clear advantages among Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under 35 (62%). Paxton leads among white evangelical Christians (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and voters 65 and older (55%).

On key issues heading into the Nov. 3 election, Talarico holds a 19-point lead among voters who say the economy is a top factor, an 18-point lead among those focused on artificial intelligence concerns and a six-point edge among those who say President Donald Trump will be central to their vote. Paxton holds a 20-point lead among voters who cite immigration as their top concern.

The poll comes as Talarico has publicly challenged Paxton to a debate — a challenge that has so far gone unanswered.

Talarico vs. Paxton polls

Here's what September polls have shown so far:

• Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
• ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
• Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
• Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%.
• SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.
• AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
• N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.