Where is Hurricane Erin headed? See projected path of Cat 2 storm

Editor's note: Follow USA TODAY's updates about Hurricane Erin for Thursday, Aug. 21.

Hurricane Erin continues to spin in the Atlantic and is forecast to grow even larger, with weather conditions expected to deteriorate along the coast of North Carolina and forecasters urging caution against swimming at most East Coast beaches.

According to a 5 a.m. ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Aug. 20, Erin is located about 455 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph with higher gusts, making it a Category 2 hurricane on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Hurricane center forecasters said some strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and that weakening is expected to begin by Friday. Erin will remain a hurricane into the weekend, however.

Where is Hurricane Erin headed?

On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda Wednesday through early Friday and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

In the advisory, the NHC said Erin "is a large hurricane growing," with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 265 miles.

Rough ocean conditions expected along East Coast

Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada during the next several days, according to the hurricane center, with rough ocean conditions expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A storm surge watch is in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, which means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. The NWS said storm surge in this area could reach 2 to 4 feet.

Beachfront property owners are bracing for the worst with predictions for a life-threatening storm surge of up to 4 feet and significant coastal erosion, with waves expected to batter beaches for 48 hours or more as the hurricane crawls northward offshore through at least Aug. 21, if not longer.

Hurricane Erin path tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Erin spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Another system in Atlantic could become tropical depression later this week

In addition to Erin, the hurricane center is also tracking two other systems in the Atlantic, including one that could soon become a tropical depression.

The NHC said in an Aug. 20 advisory a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, with hurricane center forecasters noting a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves near or north of the northern Leeward Islands.

Forecasters give the system a 60% chance of formation through the next seven days.

Additionally, the hurricane center is keeping tabs on a "concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms" located just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Forecasters said this system "lacks a closed surface circulation," however environmental conditions appear meginally favorable for additional devcelopment over the next day or so.

By the end of the week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development, forecasters said, giving the system a 30% chance of formation through the next seven days.

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.

A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.

Prepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.

• Develop an evacuation plan. If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
• Assemble disaster supplies. Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering in place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for a possibly lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
• Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions. Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance checkup to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, because flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
• Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down a hurricane plan and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
• Strengthen your home. Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricanes. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact glass; seal outside wall openings.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].