Jamaica braces for 'catastrophic' impacts from 175-mph Hurricane Melissa: Updates
Editor's note: This page summarizes Hurricane Melissa developments for Monday, Oct. 27. For the latest on Hurricane Melissa's approach to Jamaica, read USA TODAY's live updates for Tuesday, Oct. 28.
As Hurricane Melissa crept closer to Jamaica on Monday, Oct. 27, the island nation braced for what could be its worst hurricane in recorded history, evacuating parts of its capital, closing airports, and opening hundreds of shelters.
Melissa, a Category 5 storm, is expected to slam into Jamaica's southern coast on Tuesday morning, Oct. 28, with catastrophic consequences. It's also set to approach Cuba as a major hurricane and cross the central and southeastern Bahamas, forecasters said. Melissa poses no direct threat to the United States.
At 2 a.m. on Oct. 28, on Oct. 27, the National Hurricane Center reported Melissa was centered about 135 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 310 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba. The hurricane had begun moving toward the north-northeast, but was moving at only about 2 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph.
The hurricane center forecast calls for Melissa to retain those peak winds until the storm makes landfall. The hurricane is forecast to pick up speed on Oct. 28, moving across southeastern Cuba on the morning of Oct. 29 and across the southeastern or central Bahamas hours later.
Even well ahead of the storm's fiercest winds, at least seven deaths have been reported in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.
Melissa is forecast to make landfall along the southwestern coast of Jamaica on the morning of Oct. 28 near the Black River, then move inland, with the heaviest storm surge and rainfall along the coast to the east of the eyewall, the hurricane center said. Within the eyewall, "total structural failure" of buildings is likely, particularly at higher elevations and on the windward side of hills and mountains, where wind speeds could be up to 30% stronger than at the surface, the center reported.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
Prime Minister Andrew Holness and other Jamaican officials urged Jamaicans to seek safe shelter on Oct. 27 and to stay off the roads on Oct. 28. The island's residents also were encouraged to be prepared for impacts they have not experienced with previous hurricanes.
"Hour by hour, it is becoming apparent that the impact of Hurricane Melissa will be greater than the impact of Hurricane Beryl, certainly in terms of rainfall and flooding," Holness said on Oct. 27. "We can lessen damage and speed up recovery by taking preparatory and precautionary measures before for the impact of the hurricane."
By 11 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27, the central barometric pressure in Melissa's center, one measure of the hurricane's power, had dropped to 903 millibars. That makes it the seventh lowest pressure for a hurricane in the Atlantic basin since consistent pressures began being recorded in 1979, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. It was also the lowest pressure for an Atlantic hurricane this late in the calendar year.
At least 3 deaths reported in Jamaica amid storm preparations
At least three people have died in Jamaica as they were preparing for Hurricane Melissa, Christopher Tufton, the country’s minister of health and wellness, said at a news briefing on Oct. 27. The deaths occurred in the parishes of Hanover, Saint Catherine, and Saint Elizabeth.
All of the deaths happened while trees were being cut down, according to Tufton. Two people died after trees fell on them, including one health worker who was airlifted to a hospital and later died of his injuries. The third case involved a person who was also electrocuted, the health minister said.
Another 13 people were injured, according to Tufton. Most were injured after falling from ladders or roofs while trying to prepare for the storm.
“I just want to use the opportunity to … express condolences to the family members who have lost loved ones,” Tufton said at the news briefing. “If you need help, call for help, but be careful that you protect yourself even in the preparation, because already we're seeing the tragedy of lives lost.”
Authorities across the Caribbean order evacuations
Authorities have ordered mandatory evacuations for parts of southern Jamaica, including the historic town of Port Royal. Holness has called on foreign support and warned of damage to farmlands, homes, and infrastructure such as bridges, roads, ports, and airports.
Nearby, Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already faced days of torrential downpours leading to at least four deaths, authorities said. In Haiti, more than 3,650 residents in the southern parts of the country moved into temporary shelters, authorities said, as they suspended flights to and from the southern peninsula and banned sailing.
Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis also ordered evacuations for people in the southern and eastern parts of the archipelago, while much of eastern Cuba battened down ahead of Melissa's expected landfall.
Cuban authorities said they had evacuated upwards of 500,000 people living in coastal and mountainous areas vulnerable to heavy winds and flooding, and canceled schools and transport across eastern Cuba. More than 250,000 people were brought to shelters around Santiago de Cuba, the island's second-largest city, which lies squarely in the crosshairs of the hurricane's predicted path.
Explosive growth
Fueled by the warm waters of the Caribbean, the storm underwent explosive growth over the weekend, its wind speed doubling from 70 mph to over 140 mph.
The storm's slow path forward increases the risks for record rainfall. The storm could drop 30 inches of rain over Jamaica – an amount Dana Morris Dixon, the country's information minister, said "we've never heard before."
In isolated locations, especially in mountainous regions of the island, rainfall could reach up to 40 inches, the hurricane center said.
On the coast, Melissa could push up a storm surge of up to 13 feet, topped by battering waves, forecasters said, warning of "catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding."
"The time for preparation is all but over," Matthew Samuda, Jamaica's minister of water and environment, warned at a news conference.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center
In afternoon and evening updates on Oct. 27, Michael Brennan, hurricane center director, urged "everyone in Jamaica to be in a safe place where they're going to ride out the storm."
"Get to the sturdiest building that you can find," Brennan said. "There's a potential for total building failure near where the eyewall comes on shore and in areas of high terrain, as well as the potential for nine to thirteen feet storm surge inundation along the south coast near and where the center of Melissa makes landfall."
In Jamaica, the hurricane center warned that catastrophic winds in the eyewall have the potential "to cause total structural failure especially in higher elevation areas" on the night of Oct. 27 and Oct. 28. The storm could cause "extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities."
Brennan reminded people in the path of the hurricane to stay in shelters and not to venture outside as the hurricane's eye crosses over the islands.
A hurricane warning – meaning hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours – is in effect for Jamaica, the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin, and for the southeastern and central Bahamas. A hurricane watch – meaning hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours – are in effect for the Turks and Caicos, and a tropical storm warning also is in effect for Haiti, the hurricane center said.
Torrential downpours have affected Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and at least four deaths have been reported, according to Reuters. More than 3,650 residents in southern Haiti were moved into temporary shelters, and flights were suspended to and from the island's southern peninsula. Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis ordered evacuations for people in southern and eastern parts of the archipelago, and Cuban authorities said they had evacuated upwards of 500,000 people living in coastal and mountainous areas vulnerable to heavy winds and flooding, Reuters reported. More than 250,000 people were brought to shelters around Santiago de Cuba, the island's second-largest city, which lies squarely in the crosshairs of the hurricane's predicted path.
Cruise ships reroute to avoid Hurricane Melissa
Several cruise lines are changing plans to avoid Hurricane Melissa. Here are some examples:
Celebrity Beyond’s Oct. 26 itinerary will visit the Western Caribbean rather than the Eastern Caribbean, according to the cruise line’s parent company, Royal Caribbean Group.
Disney Treasure will stop in Cozumel, Mexico and spend two days at the line’s private Bahamas destination, Castaway Cay, rather than visiting Tortola and St. Thomas, the cruise line said.
Icon of the Seas’ Eastern Caribbean itinerary was replaced with a Western Caribbean cruise, visiting Cozumel in Mexico and Roatan, Honduras, according to Royal Caribbean Group.
– Nathan Diller
Where will Hurricane Melissa make landfall?
Experts anticipate Hurricane Melissa to make landfall along the western coast of Jamaica, near St. Elizabeth Parish, which has a population of over 150,000.
Evan Thompson, the director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, said the storm is expected to move northeast across the country, exiting in the area of St. Ann Parish, where more than 170,000 people live. Both parishes are dotted with towns and cities of varying sizes.
The storm's track is well west of the nation's capital of Kingston, but the entire island could see 30 inches of rain and tropical-force winds.
'This is not the end': Jamaican official briefs the public on Hurricane Melissa
Evan Thompson, the director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, said at a news conference that many parts of the country have begun to experience tropical-force winds and heavy rainfall.
The impacts, he said, are expected to worsen through the day and overnight as the storm begins turning north, taking it on a path directly toward the island. He said while there's a "small window" where the storm could move further west and potentially miss the island, that's not the most likely scenario.
"Of course, all of us are hoping for that and praying for that, but at the same time we have to be practical," he said. "Right now, the projected path takes it to the southwestern part of Jamaica."
He finished his presentation by trying to calm residents: "Believe that we will get through it and we will get through it together. No one is alone. ... This is not the end."
Hurricane Melissa gained strength on Oct. 27
Melissa's wind speeds increased to 175 mph on the afternoon of Oct. 27, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 (hours) due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall replacement cycle," the hurricane center said in an update.
"However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage," forecasters added. By 5 p.m., on Oct. 27, the center had not yet seen any evidence of the eyewall replacement starting.
A 'wild ride'
Hurricane hunter flights into Melissa on Oct. 27 reported heavy turbulence. For Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, one of those flights was his first ride in a Category 5 hurricane and "the most turbulent" he'd ever experienced.
He was processing the data from the dropsondes ‒ equipment that collects data about the storm and transmits it to the center to assist with forecasting. That data was up there with "about as strong as Atlantic hurricanes can get," Hazelton posted on his X account.
A NOAA aircraft on the morning of Oct. 27 had to depart the hurricane earlier than expected after experiencing "severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall," the hurricane center reported in a forecast discussion.
One of the hurricane hunter flights reported birds caught up by the storm and inside Melissa's eye.
Could Kingston, Jamaica, avoid the worst of Hurricane Melissa?
There may be a tiny shred of good news for Kingston, the capital of Jamaica: "As it stands right now, the center should cross the island about 60 miles west of Kingston, the population center of Jamaica," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in a Substack post.
"Of course, that places Kingston on the stronger side of the storm but with hurricane force winds confined to about a 30-mile radius from the center, there’s likely going to be a buffer between the capital and the worst wind of the storm."
However, storm surge and heavy rainfall will still be a factor in Kingston.
Officials in recent days ordered evacuations in parts of Kingston vulnerable to flash-flooding and storm surge.
Guantánamo Bay orders evacuations as Hurricane Melissa nears
Beginning over the weekend, the Navy base at Guantánamo Bay began moving families off the island ahead of Hurricane Melissa's arrival.
"Non-mission-essential U.S. citizens will be moving off the island as early as Saturday afternoon and no later than Sunday morning," the Naval station told residents on Friday, Oct. 24. Evacuees were told to pack two weeks' worth of clothing and medication into one 40-pound bag.
Civilians were taken by shuttles to planes bound for Florida. Many families were taken to an air station in Pensacola.
According to the Department of War, previously known as the Department of Defense, the Navy base at Guantánamo Bay serves about 6,000 people, including joint services personnel, civilians, family members, and others.
Melissa underwent 'rapid intensification'
Hurricane Melissa underwent what meteorologists call "rapid intensification," exploding from a 70-mph tropical storm Saturday morning Oct. 25, to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds by 5 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 26. It has since reached Category 5 strength, with winds of 175 mph.
Rapid intensification is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.
The intensification was powered by unusually warm sea water in the Caribbean, which provides the energy for the storm to gather strength.
Jamaica prepares for landfall, floodwaters inundate Hispaniola
Jamaica and Hispaniola could see upwards of 30 inches of rain, forecasters said, warning of mudslides and "life-threatening flash flooding." Peak storm surge could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, and will be accompanied by destructive waves.
Through the midweek, eastern Cuba could see up to 20 inches of rain, as 9-foot waves crash along the coast.
The storm has already begun to wreak havoc. At least three deaths in Haiti have been linked to Melissa, according to The Associated Press. The storm has also inundated parts of the Dominican Republic, damaging over 100 homes and knocking out water service in several parts of the country, officials said.
In Jamaica, tourists evacuated as officials moved to close the nation's airports and open over 800 shelters ahead of the storm's arrival.
"Many of these communities will not survive this flooding,” said Desmond McKenzie, the minister of local government, at a news conference.
Where is Hurricane Melissa headed? See forecast tracker
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Hurricane Melissa by the numbers
Melissa is the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season: Erin and Humberto were the other two. Only one other Atlantic season on record has had more than two Category 5s: 2005, with Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, Klotzbach said.
There has never been a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in Jamaica in the historical record, which dates back to 1851.
Five major hurricanes on record have made landfall in Jamaica, with Hurricane Gilbert (1988) the only Category 4 hurricane to make a direct landfall on the island, Klotzbach said on X. Gilbert made landfall with maximum winds of 130 mph.
Contributing: Eduardo Cuevas, USA TODAY, and with Reuters, Zahra Burton and Dave Sherwood.