February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem

Greetings from Ice Planet Hoth.

Indeed, much of the eastern United States resembles the fictional frozen Star Wars world, and now folks there are now enduring some of the worst cold on Earth: "The eastern United States is forecast to be the coldest place, relative to average, on the planet over the next 10 days," said Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll on X on Jan. 27.

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey, said that "overall, it is exceedingly rare to get this combination of length and magnitude of arctic airmass for this area, and it should be taken seriously for those who have to venture out in the cold for extended periods of time."

Cold weather straight from Siberia

Interestingly, "some of the cold is coming from Siberia and that is contributing to the extremity of the cold since Siberia is the source of the coldest air of the Northern Hemisphere in winter," said Massachusetts Institute of Technology climatologist Judah Cohen in an email to USA TODAY.

Record-challenging cold is gripping the Midwest and Northeast this week, bringing the coldest winter in eight years to cities such as Detroit, New York and Boston, AccuWeather said.

Cohen said this "extreme" to "historical" cold is courtesy of our wintertime foe, the polar vortex, which continues to play a role in this winter's weather, and likely will for weeks to come.

Additional cold surges through February

Much-below-normal temperatures should persist across the eastern United States into early February before moderating slightly.

And while some temporary relief is likely, the polar vortex could unleash another surge of bitterly cold air across the central and eastern United States around the middle of February, according to AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok. He said this will be accompanied by chances for snow.

The “extreme cold” outbreak would be around Feb. 8-11 and then there would still be no improvement, said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an e-mail to USA TODAY. "Talk about Groundhog Day," he said.

Meanwhile, warmth will be widespread across the western half of the country throughout most of the month, according to AccuWeather.

Maps show temperature forecasts for February

Maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (below) show the cold will continue for most of the month in the eastern United States, while the West stays warm.

When will these onslaughts of cold end?

"They look to continue through at least mid-February and likely beyond that, but my uncertainty is pretty high," Cohen said. "Up until now this winter, I was fairly confident I can spot the next stretched polar vortex that would usher in the cold. We have at least one more stretched polar vortex in early February."

When the polar vortex "stretches," cold air usually funnels down into the central and eastern United States. When it "strengthens," the cold usually stays bottled up in the Arctic and Canada.

"But beyond that, we could see a bigger polar vortex disruption, and it is much harder to predict how it will influence our weather," he said. "I don’t expect that the polar vortex will strengthen and return to normal until [meteorological] winter is over [Feb. 28]. It could strengthen again in March, but when and how it may influence our weather is a pure guessing game at this point."

Contributing: Amanda Wallace, NorthJersey,.com.

Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.