Will hurricane season 2026 be bad? Why experts are watching El Niño.

Like an oncoming ship on the distant horizon, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is steadily approaching.

Now just over three months away, meteorologists are busy preparing their forecasts for the upcoming season, which begins June 1. And most eyes are on what's happening with the El Niño/La Niña cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

"The big question coming up for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is… will we get El Niño, and if we do, how strong will it be?," said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach in an email to USA TODAY.

Simply put, if we get an El Niño as expected, the Atlantic season may be less active than average. "Overall I'd expect a little bit less activity this year, but how much less is to be determined," said associate scientist Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami in an email to USA TODAY.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 featured about 14 named storms, of which seven were hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes, three were major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher).

How might the looming El Niño impact the Atlantic hurricane season?

El Niño, a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, can have an huge impact on the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season.

"Typically, El Niño leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific, which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic," Hazelton said. "This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf."

However, he said we've seen El Niño years where the Atlantic was very warm, and that offset some of the El Niño effects. 2023 was a good example, he added.

But an El Niño is no guarantee of a quiet season: "You can get major hurricane impacts during El Niño seasons. For example, the last 3 category 5 hurricanes to hit the U.S. (Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018) all occurred during hurricane seasons as the ocean was transitioning to weak El Niño conditions," Hazelton said.

How likely is an El Niño?

NOAA's latest odds are pretty aggressive for moving away from La Niña quite quickly, with a 60% chance of neutral conditions by the February-April average (so probably the next few weeks), Klotzbach said.

Klotzbach added that upper-ocean heat content anomalies have really increased in recent weeks in the eastern/central tropical Pacific. "This often portends a transition away from La Niña to neutral (and possibly El Nino conditions)."

Looking toward the heart of the hurricane season, NOAA's latest outlook gives a 59% chance of El Niño for August - October.

What other factors will affect the hurricane season?

Although the status of El Niño/La Niña is an important factor in the hurricane season, it's not the only one. Hazelton said that Atlantic water temperatures, particularly in the so-called "Main Development Region" in the Caribbean Sea and east of the Antilles, will be important.

"Right now it is near average there overall. If that region warms a lot, we may see the Atlantic 'fight back' against the developing El Nino, but if it doesn't, the Pacific may be in the driver's seat this season (in the form of El Nino)," Klotzbach said.

Klotzbach also pointed out that "the tropical Atlantic certainly is in a cooler state (thankfully!) then it has been the past couple of years at this point."

Hazelton added that it's also worth keeping an eye on Africa: A stronger African monsoon can offset some of the effects of El Niño and produce hurricanes in the east Atlantic, as we saw in 2015 and 2018-2019.

Could El Niño impact the eastern or central Pacific hurricane seasons?

Yes, El Niño tends to lead to more active Pacific seasons, though the details of where the warmest water sets up (eastern vs. central Pacific) may determine which basin is most above normal, Hazelton said.

Eastern Pacific hurricanes tend to stay out to sea and seldom impact the United States, except their remnants can soak the Southwest. Central Pacific hurricanes can impact Hawaii.

Still early for a hurricane forecast

"It is really early for a seasonal hurricane forecast," Klotzbach told USA TODAY. "One of the reasons why we don't put out a forecast in the February/March timeframe is because during the late winter/early spring, you can get really big changes in the atmosphere/ocean system," he said.

Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University will issue their first forecast for the season on April 9. Other forecasts will follow, including NOAA's, which comes out in late May.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.