What Hungary's shocking Orbán ouster means for Trump − and Europe’s populists

At first glance, the expected but still shocking ouster of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, long considered a poster boy for Europe's populists and President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again movement, seemed like a symbolic win for the Trump resistance. Vice President JD Vance was sent to the country for an 11th-hour rally of support and did not succeed. Internet memes sprung up immediately from Trump opponents, latching onto the ''I'll have what she's having'' moment from the movie "When Harry Met Sally."

But more broadly, the end of Orbánism could bring big changes in Europe and the world order. The result may ultimately shift a deadlocked conversation around war funding for Ukraine and send shock waves toward his agitation-prone backers in Moscow.

Orbán's 16 years in power came to an end April 12 after challenger Péter Magyar persuaded a large majority of Hungarians to back him in a closely watched election.

The result casts aside a government whose domestic and international policies have inspired populist leaders across the region and beyond. Orbán's self-described "illiberal democracy" set the pace for what its opponents and many experts describe as a political experiment: eroding checks on power; defanging the media and courts; quashing minority rights; steering government contracts toward his family's business empire; and publicly railing against immigration while quietly encouraging it from some countries and for some industries.

Here's what Orbán's loss − and Magyar's win − means for Hungary, Europe and his Trump-aligned admirers in Washington.

Righting Hungary's dire economy

Hungary's vote was about more than domestic politics. The result will be felt beyond its borders. But Magyar has, first and foremost, been handed a mandate to deliver far-reaching change to Hungary's economy.

Hungary’s economy expanded by only 0.4% in 2025 − far behind, for example, fellow European Union member Poland’s 3.6%, according to the European Commission. Inflation has been rising faster than salaries, eroding living standards. At the same time, public services, especially health care and education, have been in steady decline. Meanwhile, Orbán and his close associates have become conspicuously wealthy, and most single-bid government contracts are now concentrated within a small circle of recipients.

"The situation in Hungary is that people can't afford to put food on their tables because inflation is so high and the economy is so bad," said Marc Roscoe Loustau, a Budapest-based expert on Eastern Europe who writes a regularly published newsletter, At the Edges, about the region. "People are really feeling the bite of poor economic performance and while hearing news stories about corruption and immense wealth inequalities."

A swing back to Europe

European diplomats hope Magyar's win will lead to an about-face on Orbán's increasingly unpopular, openly anti-European Union and anti-Ukraine policies. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk posted a video of himself on the phone with Magyar captioned with the words: "Welcome back to Europe!" German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the result showed Europe was "resilient against Russian propaganda" and other influences.

"We want to be a country that is no one's vassal, where achievement counts, and a country whose citizens can count on their government," Magyar said in his victory speech along the banks of the River Danube in Budapest. He was referring, in part, to Orbán's persistent cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Orbán's government has repeatedly obstructed aid to Ukraine, resisted sanctions on Russia and opposed Ukraine’s path to membership in both the European Union and the NATO military alliance. Orbán's Fidesz party cast Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a political scapegoat during the election campaign, covering billboards nationwide with unflattering images that blamed him for Hungary’s rising unemployment and sluggish economic performance and accusing him of pilfering Hungary's finances.

Orbán's loss is a loss for Putin, Trump

Orbán's defeat is a defeat for his international supporters, including Putin and Trump, who dispatched Vance to Hungary in the days before the vote with promises of major U.S. investment.

There's no question Trump has long been an Orbán fan. He has called him a strong and effective leader and praised his tough stance on immigration. Orbán, in turn, has been one of Trump’s most vocal supporters in Europe. He endorsed Trump in his elections and aligned himself closely with Trump's positions on issues such as migration and nationalism and expressed deep skepticism toward liberal international institutions.

Pawel Zerka, a senior policy fellow at the Berlin-based think tank European Council on Relations, said the election could mark a "real turning point for Donald Trump’s culture war in Europe." Over the past two years, he said, Trump has tried to project political influence across the continent by backing ideological allies, attacking opponents and undermining trust in the European Union. "Orbán’s Hungary was at the heart of that strategy," Zerka said.

He added that Magyar's victory should be a "moment of confidence for pro-European forces across the continent" that illustrates that "they are not powerless in the face of Trump’s political brand." He said it may also force parties ideologically close to MAGA − such as Germany's Alternative für Deutschland and France's Rassemblement National – to reconsider how closely they want to align themselves with Trump. "In the current context, especially after his controversial foreign policy decisions, that association may be becoming more of a liability than an asset."