SEC football faces a playoff problem, but 24 teams won't solve it

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BATON ROUGE, LA – Verge Ausberry sounded conflicted.

He likes the idea of 16 playoff teams.

Twenty-four, though, he could see himself getting behind that idea, too.

It’s a question almost every coach or athletic director must hear this offseason: How many teams would you like to see in the College Football Playoff?

I popped the playoff question to Ausberry, LSU’s athletic director, this week during an interview inside his office.

At first, Ausberry said 16. Then, he almost talked himself into 24, before circling back on 16.

No shame in some indecisiveness from someone in Ausberry’s seat. He doesn't run the playoff, and it’s not his job to produce a perfect number.

But, I left the interview thinking more strongly 24 is the wrong number. It’s a rash number, too. If there’s even a whiff of hesitance from college football stakeholders about going to 24, then they shouldn’t go to 24.

Because, you can always go from 16 to 24 in the future. Once you go to 24, there’s no going back to 12 or 16. Look across sports, and you’ll be reminded postseasons don’t shrink in size. They just get bigger. Toothpaste doesn’t go back into the tube. I call March Madness to the witness stand.

Will the SEC resist the buzz of 24 teams?

Momentum is swelling for 24 CFP teams. The idea originated in the Big Ten, but the ACC and Big 12 came aboard. Inside the SEC, several coaches and select ADs have planted their flag for 24, too, but 16 remains the official position of SEC Headquarters.

The CFP cannot expand without the SEC and Big Ten agreeing on an expansion plan.

What happens if the Big Ten won’t acquiesce to 16? (It's showing no signs of budging off 24.) Well, within some factions of the SEC, there’s a growing feeling of bigger is better, and if a deal on 16 can't be reached, go to 24.

“Twelve just doesn’t cut it,” Ausberry told me.

The SEC might sing a different tune if the Big Ten hadn’t won three straight national championships.

Also, the tune might sound different if SEC membership hadn’t gone along with Commissioner Greg Sankey’s desires for a ninth conference game.

“Our schedules in the SEC are brutal right now,” Ausberry said.

When SEC members voted in a ninth conference game, you just know they thought an expanded playoff would be just around the corner. Combine SEC teams’ robust strength of schedule with a 16-team playoff, and that’d be a boon for the conference's 9-3 teams.

Think the Big Ten doesn’t realize that?

The SEC and Big Ten failed to reach a deal last year to expand the playoff. Now, the SEC will play a nine-game conference schedule for the first time this season, with the 12-team playoff still in place.

That’s causing angst among SEC coaches and athletic directors.

“Some people looked at it as, the market on TV, we could get more money” for that ninth SEC game, Ausberry said. “Well, it wasn’t that much more, but, another loss, does it hurt you from being able to compete for the championship?”

Causing more consternation inside the SEC: The Big Ten doesn’t require its membership to play a Power Four non-conference opponent. Some Big Ten schools do so anyway. To wit, Ohio State will play at Texas in Week 2, while Michigan hosts Oklahoma.

But, defending national champion Indiana built a non-conference lineup of North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers serve as mayor of Cupcake City.

Can’t deny their strategy. None of the Big Ten's past three national champions played a Power Four non-conference opponent.

But, I fail to understand how a 24-team playoff becomes the magic solution to this schedule imbalance. Where does it end? If the Big Ten allowed its members to play six cupcake games, would the SEC want a 48-team playoff?

Nobody forced the SEC to add another conference game. If SEC members desired an easier path to 10 wins, they never should’ve approved an additional conference game.

Playoff size isn't SEC's problem

In two years of the 12-team playoff, the SEC racked up eight bids, most of any conference.

The SEC doesn’t have a playoff access problem. Its problem surfaces once the playoff starts.

In the past three seasons, SEC teams are 0-5 in playoff games against teams from either the Big Ten or Notre Dame. Plus, Miami went 2-0 in playoff games against SEC teams last year.

How would a 24-team playoff fix the SEC's postseason performance problem? It wouldn't. It just creates more participation ribbons and playoff losses.

Undeniably, the SEC faces a playoff problem, but 24 teams isn’t the answer. Instead, it’s a panic move that’d give the Big Ten what it wants.

And once the playoff goes to 24, there’s no going back.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.