Trump's ceasefire is a path to nowhere – and Iran knows it | Opinion
A ceasefire was supposed to signal Iran's weakening. Instead, Tehran is using the pause to regroup and leverage a new chokehold on global oil markets.
The United States and Iran are set to begin peace talks on April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan.
It’s a road to nowhere.
Despite President Donald Trump's claim that he achieved regime change in Iran, the country's leadership hasn't fundamentally changed. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, but the system he built remains. The faces may be different, but the ideology is not.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who will lead Iran's negotiating team, was a loyalist of the late supreme leader with deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – Iran's most powerful military force.
If Trump sees him as a pragmatic dealmaker, that's a mistake. Ghalibaf isn't going to Islamabad to cut a lasting peace deal. Rather, he is focused on one thing: keeping the regime alive.
Iran's real power isn't what Trump thinks
For the Revolutionary Guard, that means holding onto the Strait of Hormuz and preserving Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
Before the war, Iran projected power two ways: through its nuclear program and a network of proxy militias – Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and others – spread across the Middle East.
Iran now has a third source of power: its ability to choke off the Strait of Hormuz and rattle global oil markets.
You can see that leverage in the price of oil.
The day after the ceasefire was announced April 7, Brent crude fell from $109 a barrel to about $95. Even at that price, oil costs over 50% more than it did before the Iran war began Feb. 28.
That helps explain Iran's position going into these talks. It wants to keep control of the Strait of Hormuz, continue its nuclear program and maintain its network of regional militias. Together, those are now the backbone of Iranian power.
And Tehran has shown it will use that leverage, ceasefire or not.
Trump's ceasefire is already showing its limits
On April 8, after Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Iranian media announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed, citing what it called an Israeli breach of the ceasefire.
The ceasefire is already showing its limits. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office and the White House have both confirmed it doesn't cover Hezbollah – leaving the door open for continued fighting in Lebanon.
Iran is using that ambiguity to its advantage, signaling it still intends to control the Strait of Hormuz. It has even reportedly demanded payment in Bitcoin for safe passage through the strait.
In Iran, the negotiators don’t hold the power. The Revolutionary Guard does. That makes a meaningful deal unlikely. The officials leading these talks are not in a position to give up the programs that sustain the regime.
More likely, the talks are a way to buy time – for Iran’s military and its allies to regroup.
The talks also buy time for Iran's allies, Hezbollah chief among them. Iranian officials have made that calculation explicit, pressing the United States to restrain Israel while pursuing their own objectives at the table. It's a familiar playbook: Use negotiations to secure what you couldn't win on the battlefield.
Russia has run the same game.
Vance, Kushner are the wrong people to negotiate with Iran
That’s why Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – and Vice President JD Vance – are the wrong people to negotiate a permanent deal with Iran. This is not a business deal, and it cannot be solved like one.
Iran is not interested in “big money.” It is a militant and ideologically driven regime and a theocratic one at that.
Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, or another senior military official, should be at the table. Without that kind of pressure, Iran's leadership has every reason to believe it is winning.
That matters beyond the battlefield. Trump's ceasefire risks strengthening the regime at home, signaling to ordinary Iranians that U.S. pressure is easing just when they might have been ready to push back.
Trump’s approach also risks opening the door for Russia and China, Iran’s key allies in the region, while leaving U.S. partners in the Persian Gulf questioning Washington’s resolve.
The Middle East needs a path to real peace – not a ceasefire that strengthens Iran and leads nowhere.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Retired Army Col. Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. They are the cofounders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.