Democrats have upper hand in shutdown because Republican voters like Obamacare | Opinion

If you’re sensing that some rank-and-file Republicans in Congress are getting nervous about their leaders refusing to negotiate with Democrats to reopen our federal government, anxiety about a looming increase in health insurance costs might be driving that.

Democrats have successfully branded this government shutdown, now in its 10th day, as all about Republicans refusing to negotiate an extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare. That program now helps more than 24 million Americans find health insurance plans if they don't get insurance from an employer or are not eligible for Medicaid or Medicare.

Those subsidies expire on Dec. 31. And the people who use them are just three weeks away from the start of 2026 open enrollment for Obamacare. They're in for a shock, with the cost of their health care plans projected to more than double if the subsidies are not extended.

That economic pain will be felt most acutely in red states won by President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.

Voters in Trump states will feel the blows to Obamacare most

KFF, a nonpartisan health policy nonprofit, recently reported that 77% of the 24.3 million Americans enrolled in Obamacare live in states that Trump won. Ninety-three percent of Obamacare users rely on the subsidies to pay for health insurance.

That's why U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a bombastic Republican from Georgia and avowed Trump ally, broke with him and the Republican Party on Oct. 6, warning in a social media post that insurance premiums for her adult children will double if the subsidies are not extended.

The average monthly Obamacare subsidy is $550, according to KFF. In Georgia, the average is $573 per month for the more than 1.4 million residents of that state who receive the Obamacare subsidy.

Larry Levitt, KFF's executive vice president for health policy, noted in his own social media post that about 86,000 residents of Greene's congressional district use Obamacare.

Greene, in her post, also complained that Republican leaders in Congress have offered no plan to extend the subsidies.

That's not surprising, since House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, lurched us into this shutdown by following Trump's order not to negotiate with Democrats.

They did that, knowing they needed Democratic votes in the Senate to pass a continuing resolution to keep funding the government.

Who are Johnson and Thune representing here, their constituents back home or their political leader in the White House? Nearly 277,000 residents of Louisiana and more than 50,000 residents in South Dakota are receiving the Obamacare subsidies that Johnson and Thune are willing to let expire, according to KFF.

Johnson has tried to cast that expiration at the end of the year as "an eternity" away, even as open enrollment for Obamacare begins Nov. 1. He has insisted that he will not negotiate on that until Democrats provide the votes to reopen the government.

Thune sings the same tune ‒ he'll negotiate on the subsidies, but only after the Democrats relent.

Trump is making congressional Republicans look like fools

They're just following Trump's lead here. Speaking at the White House on Oct. 6, Trump said he would be open to negotiations "if we made the right deal."

Just a few hours later, though, Trump posted on social media that he would not negotiate until Democrats gave in.

His predictable volatility on this has already complicated life for Johnson and Thune, as they desperately try to cast blame for the shutdown on Democrats. Trump seems to be enjoying the shutdown and the attention he gains from using it to threaten layoffs for federal workers and slash federal programs.

Speaking during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on Oct. 9, Trump didn't sound like a man with a plan. Here's what he said: "We're not going to do anything, only good for health care. We're, really, I think, become the party of good health care."

Trump, a billionaire who doesn't have to worry about the cost of his health insurance, sounds detached from the reality of Americans who face those concerns.

A KFF tracking poll released Oct. 3 found that 78% of the adults surveyed said Congress should extend the Obamacare subsidies. That included 59% of the Republicans surveyed, 92% of the Democrats and 82% of independents.

If Trump keeps sounding gleeful ‒ and, at times, incoherent ‒ about the shutdown and the cost of health insurance, I'd expect that more Republicans in Congress will call for negotiations and an extension of the Obamacare subsidies so we can reopen our government.

Then we'll see if Johnson and Thune look out for the people they're paid to represent, or just keep marching along to Trump's disastrous orders.

Follow USA TODAY columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan. Sign up for his weekly newsletter, Translating Politics, here.