California's high cost of housing is a warning for Florida | Opinion

"It's the economy, stupid," Bill Clinton famously proclaimed on his way to winning the presidency in 1992. As we approach midterm elections more than 30 years later, a similar catchphrase could be: "It's affordability, stupid."

Many Americans consider the cost of living the top issue that needs to be addressed in November elections. While food, gas and health care costs are a big part of this equation, the biggest expense many families have to reckon with every month is their mortgage or rent payments.

With that in mind, it's instructive to look at what has happened – and is happening – in Florida and California, two large, heavily populated states on opposite sides of our country.

By one metric, these states appear to be headed in different directions. However, they have more in common than their political leaders might imagine.

A tale of two states, more alike than they may realize

In 2025, California experienced a net loss of 150,000 people, according to one estimate. Other estimates indicate slow growth over the past three years, although the state's population is about where it was in 2019, before significant population losses during the COVID-19 years.

By contrast, my home state of Florida has been growing like a flower in springtime. Florida added almost 200,000 residents from 2024 to 2025, capping a decade with an overall population growth of 16.5%.

If you're planning a car trip to Disney World or other Orlando area attractions this summer, these growth statistics will become more than an abstraction.

As you're driving south on Interstate 75 near the Florida Turnpike junction, about an hour north of your destination, there's an excellent chance you'll get mired in bumper-to-bumper traffic in what seems like the middle of nowhere.

You'll actually be passing through two of the nation's fastest-growing metro areas, Ocala and The Villages, which may be totally unfamiliar unless you're a horse breeder or you've heard tales about senior citizens spending their retirement years engaged in bawdy activities.

What political narratives miss on affordability

In the hyperpartisan shorthand of our times, a simple narrative has emerged: People are fleeing the liberal, tax-and-spend policies of California, a blue state, while they're flocking to the red state paradise Gov. Ron DeSantis dubbed "the Free State of Florida."

That surely makes a good applause line at conservative political events, but the reality is much more practical. According to research by the Public Policy Institute of California, high housing costs are most often cited as the reason why people have chosen to leave the Golden State.

According to the institute, about 900,000 people left California from 2015 to 2025 over housing costs. More than 1 in 3 Californians have at least considered leaving the state for that reason.

That should be setting off alarm bells in Florida and other places where fast population growth is seen as a sign of prosperity.

Even with the recent downturn, California's population has grown from almost 33.9 million in 2000 to 39.3 million, according to U.S. Census data. During many of those years, California was outpacing the national growth rate.

During that time, the median home price nearly quadrupled, from $226,870 in January 2000 to $889,190 this March.

Florida's housing prices have been rising with its population, too. Median home prices in the Sunshine State are about $420,000 now, up from about $105,500 in 2000.

Some Florida lawmakers apparently think they can grow their way out of a housing affordability crisis. The state legislature has approved a bill that places new limits on local governments' efforts to control growth and development within their jurisdictions.

The bill's sponsor, state Rep. David Borrero, a Republican from the Miami suburb of Hialeah, suggested the legislation would drive home costs down by increasing the stock of housing available in the state.

That would be true only if all housing units looked the same, but they don't. Modern developers aren't building quaint bungalows for working-class folks anymore. They're building mega mansions and high-rise oceanfront condominiums, because – as the old saying goes – that's where the money is.

If housing costs went down as development increased, that would already be happening. But it didn't happen that way in California, and it's not going to happen in Florida, either.

'Build, baby, build' isn't an affordable housing strategy

Developers always seem to think the solution is to build more houses – and let the market take care of itself. However, market corrections may take years to take shape, while most regular folks are battling with their household expense budgets on a month-to-month basis.

There are certainly ways to encourage more specific types of affordable housing. For example, by offering tax breaks or other incentives for more "live-work" spaces, where apartments or condos are located above businesses, or so-called "mother-in-law" units, where small guest houses are permitted on lots with larger primary homes.

Small-lot houses, apartments or condominiums clustered around commercial areas can create walkable neighborhoods, where more people can walk to work or shopping rather than commuting long distances between urban centers and the suburbs.

But if developers just get a free hand to do whatever they want, wherever they want, they're going to keep building more expensive homes on large land tracts until the real estate bubble bursts.

At that point, people are going to start voting with their moving vans, leaving Florida, much like they did in California.

These two large states, ranked first and third in population, should serve as a cautionary tale for the rest of the country. Trying to grow your way out of a housing affordability problem just won't work.

Blake Fontenay is USA TODAY's commentary editor.