Trump war drives up gas prices ‒ and the GOP's political risk | Opinion

I filled my small SUV with a tank of gas a few days ago and spent about $70, more than I’ve paid in years. Here in North Texas, gas prices are hovering around $4 per gallon. That might seem low compared with the rest of the country, but for Texans used to cheaper fuel, it’s a real strain. Many people here commute to work, and higher gas prices only add more pressure to already burdensome bottom lines.

The Labor Department reports that the year-over-year consumer price index rose 3.8% in April, the sharpest jump in three years. As of May 12, the national average for gas is $4.50 per gallon, while Californians are paying an eye-popping $6.15.

President Donald Trump’s decision to wage war against Iran is beginning to hit Americans in their wallets. Increasing inflation raises questions about how long this conflict will continue and whether rising costs could influence voters as Republicans head into the November elections.

Inflation is rising as food and gas prices climb

Inflation has risen significantly as a result of the war with Iran, and gas prices aren’t the only source of financial pain. Restaurant prices were 2.7% higher in March than they were a year earlier, while grocery prices rose 1.9%.

Staples like ground beef and orange juice have become notably more expensive, even as eggs and bacon have, somewhat surprisingly, declined.

Trump appears to recognize the affordability pressures Americans are facing. His proposal to suspend the federal gas tax could offer short-term relief, but it’s unlikely to provide meaningful long-term savings. It’s a bit like handing someone a towel while the faucet is still running.

A more lasting solution, of course, would be resolving the war itself, which could ease broader inflationary pressures, including at the pump.

Americans aren’t just worried about filling up their gas tanks. An April 28 Gallup poll found that 55% say their financial situation is worsening, while 4 in 10 worry about how they’ll pay their monthly bills.

As a single mom of four, I understand those concerns all too well.

It’s not all bad news. The Department of Labor reported an increase of 178,000 jobs in March and 115,000 in April. Federal employment continues to decline, which many Americans may welcome amid concerns about government bloat, while private-sector job growth remains an encouraging sign for the broader economy.

How much will economy affect midterm elections?

The economy is rarely simple. No president fully controls the economy, nor is any one leader solely responsible for every rise or fall.

Under President Joe Biden, inflation reached a four-decade high of 9%, though that spike was influenced in part by pandemic-era stimulus that began under Trump.

Still, presidential policies matter, particularly when it comes to energy prices and inflation. April’s inflation spike appears tied in large part to rising gas costs fueled by the war with Iran.

Trump’s decision to engage militarily with Iran was always politically risky. If he had successfully neutralized the nuclear threat, weakened the regime and exited swiftly, it could have been a major geopolitical and political victory – a clear demonstration of his “peace through strength” doctrine.

Now Trump says the fragile ceasefire is on "life support."

The president should not abandon the conflict prematurely just to save Americans an average of $34 a month on gas. But prolonged war abroad paired with steadily rising gas and food prices could steadily erode the patience of Americans already struggling to make ends meet.

Trump did not return to office promising working families they would shoulder higher costs at home for another drawn-out foreign conflict.

If inflation and gas prices keep climbing, voters may care less about potential geopolitical wins overseas and more about the rising cost of living here at home.

Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. Sign up for her newsletter, The Right Track, and get it delivered to your inbox. ‒