With Paxton, Trump and Texas chose loyalty over electability | Opinion

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate race and will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in what is expected to be one of the most closely watched Senate contests of this election cycle.

In the GOP primary, President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, whom many Republicans viewed as the safer general-election candidate.

Trump has a long history of backing candidates in Republican primaries who later prove weaker in general elections. Senate Republicans have every reason to be frustrated by that pattern. But in Trump’s GOP, loyalty often matters more than electability.

Trump's Texas Senate endorsement was a mistake

Paxton is an unusually vulnerable candidate with a long trail of scandal behind him. The Texas House impeached him on allegations of bribery and abuse of power, with many Republicans joining Democrats in support. Though the Texas Senate later acquitted him, the accusations remain a serious political liability.

Paxton’s personal life also gives Democrats an easy line of attack. In 2025, his wife filed for divorce on “biblical grounds,” later linked to allegations of adultery. Infidelity may no longer disqualify Republicans from office, but it can still damage a candidate with swing voters.

Paxton is no stronger on policy. He has functioned largely as a Trump loyalist, backing efforts to weaken or eliminate the filibuster to advance Trump’s agenda and helping spread Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election.

Cornyn, by contrast, is a conventional conservative with a long track record in the Senate. But for Trump and much of the MAGA movement, Cornyn’s problem was never ideology. It was loyalty. They viewed him as insufficiently committed to Trump and were willing to gamble on a far riskier candidate they see as “a fighter.”

“John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough,” Trump wrote. Cornyn spent months trying to repair his relationship with Trump, but it ultimately did not matter. Trump never let go of old grievances from his first term and his 2024 comeback campaign.

Trump endorsements win primaries, not general elections

Because of Trump’s grudge-driven politics, Republicans now have to carry Paxton through a race that should have been comfortably winnable for a more conventional Republican such as Cornyn. Senate Republicans are reportedly frustrated by Trump’s endorsement of Paxton, but this is hardly a new problem.

Trump still holds an iron grip on the Republican base. But for years, he has judged candidates less by whether they can win a general election than by how personally loyal they are to him.

Trump-backed candidates have repeatedly underperformed Republican expectations. In the 2022 midterms, many of Trump’s preferred candidates underperformed, helping turn what was supposed to be a red wave into a disappointing cycle for Republicans. Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters and Herschel Walker all rode Trump’s endorsement to primary victories before losing Senate races Republicans believed they could win.

Even JD Vance underperformed in his Senate win, compared with Ohio’s more established Republican, Mike DeWine, who won the gubernatorial race that year.

Meanwhile, Republicans who focused more on governing than grievance politics posted stronger results in states such as Florida and Georgia.

Weak candidates do not just hurt themselves. They drain resources from the rest of the party. The more money Republicans have to spend rescuing candidates like Paxton, the less they can spend defending vulnerable seats or competing in races that could flip Democratic seats.

Those disappointing 2022 results came during what was supposed to be a Republican-wave election. Republicans now face a much tougher political environment, with Trump’s second presidency proving divisive and Democratic voters likely to be highly motivated. In that climate, weak candidates become an even bigger liability.

Texas may ultimately remain out of reach for Democrats, as it has in so many past election cycles. But Trump’s endorsement of Paxton still weakens Republicans’ chances of holding the Senate by forcing the party to defend a candidate with obvious political vulnerabilities. Senate Republicans can complain about that reality all they want, but it is the predictable consequence of allowing Trump to remain the party’s dominant force.

Dace Potas is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY and a graduate of DePaul University with a degree in political science.