US Open 2026 sleepers, dark horses: Longshot picks at Shinnecock Hills

Scottie Scheffler's first attempt at completing golf's career grand slam arrives this week at the 2026 U.S. Open. After winning The Open Championship and PGA Championship in 2025, there's only one of golf's major trophies that he's yet to secure.

But the U.S. Open has a penchant producing an unexpected champion, especially lately. J.J. Spaun became one last year. Wyndham Clark won his first major at the U.S. Open in 2023, Matt Fitzpatrick did the same in 2022 and Gary Woodland was a first-time major winner in 2019. Combined with the USGA's reputation for brutal course layouts and conditions, there's a sense of mystery as the U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York.

Brooks Koepka won the 2018 U.S. Open when it was last held here and Scheffler is an overwhelming favorite, according to the pre-tournament odds. But there are plenty of sleeper picks, dark horses and longshots that should be considered given recent history at this event.

Here's a breakdown of some golfers with long odds who could surprise at the 2026 U.S. Open:

U.S. Open 2026 odds: Who are the favorites at Shinnecock Hills?

All odds provided via BetMGM, as of Wednesday, June 17

• Scottie Scheffler (+550)
• Rory McIlroy (+1200)
• Jon Rahm (+1400)
• Xander Schauffele (+1800)
• Cameron Young (+2000)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)
• Ludvig Åberg (+2200)
• Bryson DeChambeau (+3300)
• Tyrrell Hatton (+3300)

2026 U.S. Open sleepers: 6 longshot picks to win

Russell Henley (+3,500)

Ten golfers have better odds than one currently ranked No. 5 in the world. Henley is a popular choice this week because he's proven to be adept in the windy conditions expected this week, plus his accuracy off the tee and with his irons are well-suited for Shinnecock Hill. Henley has five top-10 finishes at majors since 2024, including third place at The Masters this year, and won the Charles Schwab Challenge last month. He could be due to break through at a big event.

Patrick Reed (+4,000)

Who's playing the best among the golfers who finished in the top five the last time Shinnecock Hills hosted the U.S. Open in 2018? It might be Reed, in the midst of returning to the PGA Tour after leaving for LIV Golf. Reed was in contention at various times during the first majors of the 2026 season.

Chris Gotterup (+4,500)

Gotterup sits at No. 11 in the world golf rankings entering the U.S. Open (and reached as high as No. 5 earlier this year). He considers this a local major after growing up in New Jersey and his skills off the tee should come in handy at Shinnecock Hills. Gotterup already has two top-10 finishes in six career major starts.

Joaquin Niemann (+6,600)

Nobody has won more tournaments on the LIV Golf tour than Niemann, who captured his eighth title earlier this month at LIV Golf Korea. The 27-year-old hasn't been able to translate that success to the majors with only one career top-10 finish, but he's long been considered a rising star in golf. There's good value with Niemann due to his poor track record in the biggest tournaments, perhaps rightfully so.

Aaron Rai (+8,000)

There are currently 32 golfers in the field that currently have better odds to win the 2026 U.S. Open than the surprise PGA Championship winner. Rai's driving accuracy — he's second on the PGA Tour this season — should serve him well at Shinnecock Hills.

Jake Knapp (+10,000)

Knapp hasn't played in a PGA Tour event since April due to injury, but he was in the midst of his best season as a pro leading up to that point with five top-10 finishes in nine starts. Knapp "quietly blends the two most-important things that lead to success in a U.S. Open, great ballstriking and elite putting," writes Golfweek's David Dusek.

How to watch 2026 U.S. Open: TV, live streaming schedule

The 2026 U.S. Open will be broadcast nationally on NBC, USA Network and NBCSN, with live streaming coverage available on Peacock, Fubo, USOpen.com and the U.S. Open app.

All times Eastern

Round 1: Thursday, June 18

• 5:30 a.m.-4 p.m. — USA Network, Peacock, Fubo
• 4-7 p.m. — NBCSN, Peacock, Fubo

Round 2: Friday, June 19

• 5:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m. — NBCSN, Peacock, Fubo
• 12:30-6:30 p.m. — NBC, Peacock, Fubo

Round 3: Saturday, June 20

• 9-11 a.m. — USA Network, Fubo
• 11 a.m.-7 p.m. — NBC, Peacock, Fubo

Final Round: Sunday, June 21

• 8-11 a.m. — USA Network, Fubo
• 11 a.m.-6 p.m. — NBC, Peacock, Fubo